2025-26 NBA Playoff Odds: 4 Best Bets for Opening Play-In Games

The NBA regular season has finally — and mercifully — come to an end. 

While the end of the season was littered with blowouts and tanking (along with endless proposals on how to prevent tanking in the future), the postseason offers hope of a much more exciting and competitive brand of basketball. 

But before we get to the playoffs, the play-in tournament awaits. 

Six games will ultimately eliminate four teams, as the 7-10 seeds in each conference square-off for the right to make the NBA playoffs, which begin Saturday. 

Let’s take a look at each game from a betting perspective.

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No. 10 Miami @ No. 9 Charlotte (-5.5, 228.5)

The Heat are no stranger to the play-in, as they will now participate in this tournament for the fourth consecutive year. 

Last season, as the 10-seed, they eliminated the Bulls and Hawks, advancing out of the play-in before being promptly swept by the Cavaliers in the first round.

Three years ago, the Heat went from the play-in all the way to the NBA Finals, eventually losing to the Nuggets. They will draw a Hornets team that was 11-23 on Jan. 2, but eventually caught fire and surged to a winning record, as well as the fourth-best point-differential in the East (+4.8 points per game). 

The Hornets are young, talented and have an extremely promising future for the first time in what feels like forever. Many would agree they are the most dangerous team of this play-in bunch. However, they did stumble at times down the stretch when it looked like they had a chance to avoid the play-in altogether. 

I’ll take the points here and back the experience of the Heat. I trust their future Hall of Fame coach, Erik Spoelstra, on short prep time, over the inexperienced Hornets. 

PICK: Heat (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright

No. 8 Portland @ No. 7 Phoenix (-4.5, 218.5)

Both teams have had successful seasons regardless of what happens going forward.

The Blazers have been in rebuilding mode since dealing franchise legend Damian Lillard to the Bucks in the summer of 2023, and are looking for their first trip back to the playoffs in the post-Lillard era. The Suns moved on from Kevin Durant, trading him to the Rockets last sunmer. They then exceeded expectations en route to a surprising 45-win season. 

I expect an uglier, defensive-oriented game here. Both teams are in the top 12 in the NBA in defensive rating, while both are among the bottom of the remaining teams in offensive rating. 

With a trip to the playoffs on the line, I expect a high level of defensive intensity from both teams. The Blazers have a number of quality defenders they can throw at Suns’ star Devin Booker. 

I’ll go Under the total.

PICK: Under 218.5 total points scored by both teams combined

No. 8 Orlando @ No. 7 Philadelphia (-1.5, 220.5)

The Magic were unable to beat the Celtics' backups in the regular season finale on Sunday, and will now have to play in Philadelphia as a result. 

That disappointing loss is a fitting way for the Magic to close out their regular season. 

While it was a trendy preseason pick by many to advance deep into the Eastern Conference playoffs, trading a haul of draft picks to the Grizzlies for Desmond Bane last summer has not taken Orlando to the next level like some expected. The 76ers will be without star center Joel Embiid as he recovers from appendicitis, but it’s hard for me to trust a Magic team that has been inconsistent all year, and posted a losing record on the road. 

The 76ers also have the better and more experienced coach in Nick Nurse, a coach with an NBA championship on his resumé, and Philly has the best scorer in this matchup, All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey. 

PICK: 76ers (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points

No. 10 Golden State @ No. 9 LA Clippers (-4.5, 220.5)

Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard present an unusual amount of star power for a 9-10 matchup. 

The winning team will need to beat the loser of the Blazers-Suns game to earn the "prize" of facing the defending champion Thunder in the playoffs. 

While it’s scary to bet against Curry, he is coming off of a lengthy absence, and it’s hard to imagine he can play the 40+ minutes needed for him to carry the Warriors to another game and continue their season. When Curry sits, it will be too hard for the Warriors to generate offense, and on the other end of the floor, they don’t have a perimeter defender that matches up well with Leonard. 

I’ll take the home team to advance.

PICK: Clippers (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points