Tampa Bay Rays: Chris Archer, the John Doe of the Offseason
After seeing the returns the Chicago White Sox received for Chris Sale, the Tampa Bay Rays expect a similar asking price for their ace, Chris Archer.
Throughout the offseason, the Tampa Bay Rays tangled Chris Archer out into the market. However, their expected asking price of one or two top prospects might initially scare away any potential suitors. Yet, for a team needing a consistent starter and features a strong defense, Archer could be an anonymously profitable pickup.
Rather than coming off of a phenomenal season, like Chris Sale, Archer’s rough 2016 campaign sets back his value. With a 4.02 ERA, Archer went 9-19 and tied for the most loses in the major leagues. His lack of command with his slider resulted in a career-high 30 homers. Consequently, the asking price set by the Rays for Archer might confused some teams.
However, according to Baseball Prospectus, Archer finished with the ninth lowest deserved run average in the major leagues. This revolutionary stat takes into account the climate, base-stealing activity and passed balls/wild pitches while disregarding unearned runs. Last Season, Archer ranked among Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer as one of 11 pitchers with sub-3.00 DRA.
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Moreover, Tampa Bay’s recent underperformance diminishes Archer’s overall value. The Rays spiraled to their third consecutive losing season and their 68-94 record came in part to their erroneous defense. Out of the 100 runs Archer allowed last season, 10% came off of errors committed by Tampa Bay’s defense. In fact, the Rays finished tied for 16th in the major leagues with 94 team errors.
Moore Defense
Given a good team with solid defensive support, Archer’s true colors will shine through. The same was true for Matt Moore, Archer’s Tampa Bay teammate from 2012 up until last season. To a lesser degree, Moore also fell victim to the Rays inadequate fielding prior to being traded in 2016 in exchange for Matt Duffy. Moore finished the season with the San Francisco Giants, where his new defense provided perfect support. With golden-glove infielders in Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik, the Giants finished with the least amount of errors in baseball. Going 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA for the Giants, Moore allowed 31 earned runs without any unearned runs.
Despite struggling last season, the right-hander is only one year removed from his best in 2015. While his 12-13 record does not fully reflect his value, Archer owned a 3.23 ERA with a career-high 525 strikeouts. His red-hot start to the season earned him his first career All-Star appearance, allowing one run through 1.1 innings.
Not to mention, the Tampa Bay Rays hold Archer on an extremely team-friendly contract. Along with Archer comes his $38.5 million five-year contract, a relatively low deal compared to Sale. By trading for Sale, the Boston Red Sox adopted the remaining $38 million contract until 2019. While Archer’s contract is a half million more expensive, the remaining five years in his contract fits well into the new collective-bargaining agreement.
His promising talent coupled with his inexpensive contract, Archer presents a sneaky-beneficial trade for a near contending team.
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