This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ll preview a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The AL West: Texas Rangers | Houston Astros. Up next: Los Angeles Angels
LAST SEASON
86-76 (second place in AL West)
WHAT’S NEW
Key additions: SS Jean Segura (trade from Diamondbacks), OF Jarrod Dyson (trade from Royals), SP Drew Smyly (trade from Rays), SP Yovani Gallardo (trade from Orioles), 1B/3B Danny Valencia (trade from A’s), OF Mitch Haniger (trade from Diamondbacks), SP Chris Heston (trade from Giants), RP Marc Rzepczynski (free agent from Nationals), RP Casey Fien (free agent from Dodgers), C Carlos Ruiz (trade from Dodgers), RP James Pazos (trade from Yankees), RP Shae Simmons (trade from Braves)
Jarrod Dyson
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Key subtractions: SP Taijuan Walker (trade to Diamondbacks), OF Seth Smith (trade to Orioles), 1B Adam Lind (free agent to Nationals), OF Franklin Gutierrez (free agent to Dodgers), RP Vidal Nuno (trade to Dodgers, then trade to Orioles), SP Nate Karns (trade to Royals), C Chris Iannetta (free agent to Diamondbacks), SS Ketel Marte (trade to Diamondbacks), RHP Drew Storen (free agent to Reds), OF Nori Aoki (waivers to Astros), OF Mallex Smith (trade from Braves, then trade to Rays), RP Tom Wilhelmsen (free agent to Diamondbacks), 1B Dae-ho Lee (free agent), RP Arquimedes Caminero (released, signed in Japan)
3 STRIKES
Jean Segura
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1. Wheeling and dealing. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto made 14 trades this offseason — the most of any team in at least 20 years — and signed a few players on top of that. The result is a 40-man roster that looks drastically different than the one that looked drastically different last season. Every move was made for a different reason — Dipoto is clearly obsessed with making his 40-man roster as deep as any in baseball — but there seems to be a significant thread combining all the moves:
Felix Hernandez
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. It’s now or never. The M’s won 86 games last year, and their second-place finish provided a nice uptick of optimism after a decade of malaise in the Emerald City (the Mariners haven’t won the West since 2001). Seattle might be a buzzy team at the moment, but it certainly isn’t a group of young hotshots coming into their own as major leaguers. Frankly, they’re kind of old. The M’s core — Felix Hernandez (31 in April), Hisashi Iwakuma (36 in April), Robinson Cano (34), Kyle Seager (29) and Nelson Cruz (37 in July) — won’t have too many years past this one of significant returns, so Dipoto is setting up for the present first and future second. It’s hard to blame him, but:
Danny Valencia
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3. Is this team really better? The Mariners have taken on a new identity this year — they want flyball pitchers and rangy outfielders. The M’s are going to start three 2016 center fielders at the three outfielder positions in 2017, looking to make sure that anything that goes up and doesn’t go over a fence comes down in a mitt. It’s a bold move, as it will likely come at the expense of viable offense. Add in the M’s likely eventual platoon of rookie Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia, and Seattle’s offense — even with Cano and Cruz —might not be able to match its impressive 768 runs and 2,400 total bases from last year. Add in the viable worry about King Felix and Iwakuma keeping up with their 2016 paces, and it’s not a surprise that the M’s — even after all those offseason moves — are projected to win 83 games this year.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
The moves pan out and the Mariners’ strong defense and new-look rotation win 90-plus games and perhaps an AL West crown.
Hisashi Iwakuma
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WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Hernandez and James Paxton break down, Iwakuma can’t repeat his strong 2016, and the Mariners’ offense can’t put up enough runs to cover up the rotation’s problems. The Mariners are a 2017 version of the Arizona Diamondbacks — a team with big aspirations that can’t put it together and regress.
SURPRISING STAT
Nelson Cruz is the only player in baseball to hit 40 or more in each of the past three seasons.
BEST BETS
Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 85.5
World Series odds (via Vegas Insider): 30/1
TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS
1. Robinson Cano, 2B: After being almost written off as a Safeco Field power casualty, Cano hit a career-high 39 home runs in 2016. His batting average is always strong, and he’ll be a big fantasy asset in the third round.
2. Nelson Cruz, OF: Cruz has hit more homers (127) than anyone in baseball over the past three seasons, and even though he’s 36 years old, 40 homers again look like a decent possibility.
3. Kyle Seager, 3B: Seager isn’t flashy or exciting, but you can probably depend on him for 25 homers, 90 RBI and a solid batting average. After the stud third basemen come off the board early, you’ll be happy to get Seager a few rounds later.
4. Jean Segura, SS/2B: Segura comes to Seattle after a terrific season with the Diamondbacks that saw him hit 20 homers with 33 stolen bases. At his current fifth-round ADP, he won’t need to repeat those numbers to be valuable.
5. Edwin Diaz, RP: Only Dellin Betances struck out more batters per nine innings than Diaz (15.3) last season. He should be ready for a big year as the Mariners’ closer.
(Courtesy of the FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)
PREDICTION
The M’s start strong but fade down the stretch, winning 84 games and finishing in third in the AL West.
