This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ve previewed a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants. Up next: Arizona Diamondbacks
LAST SEASON
68-94 (last in NL West)
WHAT’S NEW
Key additions: SP Trevor Cahill (free agent from Cubs), SP Jhoulys Chacin (free agent from Angels), SP Jered Weaver (free agent from Angels), SS Erick Aybar (free agent from Tigers)
Trevor Cahill
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Key subtractions: SP Tyson Ross (free agent to Rangers), OF Jon Jay (free agent to Cubs), IF Adam Rosales (free agent to A’s), C Derek Norris (trade to Nationals), RP Brandon Morrow (free agent to Dodgers), IF/OF Alexi Amarista (free agent to Rockies), SP Edwin Jackson (free agent)
3 STRIKES
Yangervis Solarte
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1. There’s talent at the corners. This clearly is the team’s strength and the most productive part of the roster. Wil Myers finally enjoyed a long-anticipated breakout campaign (28 homers, 94 RBI, .797 OPS) in his first full season at first base in 2016, earning his first All-Star selection. At age 26, he is just entering his prime and is the foundation the Padres will build upon after signing a six-year, $83 million extension during the offseason. Over at third base, Yangervis Solarte set career highs across the board (15 homers, 71 RBI, .808 OPS) despite playing in just 109 games last season. Unfortunately, his name has come up in trade rumors, meaning San Diego could try to capitalize on his breakout effort by selling high on him.
Clayton Richard
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
2. The rotation is loaded with fifth starters. And that’s about the nicest way to phrase it. Clayton Richard is the ace by default, after posting a 2.52 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) with the Padres last season after being released by the Cubs. And Trevor Cahill — who spent the 2016 season in the Cubs’ bullpen and hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2013 — is an intriguing project. But then question marks replace uniform numbers with reclamation projects Jered Weaver and Opening Day starter Jhoulys Chacin, and holdovers Luis Perdomo (5.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), Christian Friedrich (4.80 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) and Jarred Cosart (6.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP). You get the feeling the Padres already regret their offseason decision to cut ties with would-be ace Tyson Ross without getting anything in return.
Hunter Renfroe
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3. There’s hope for the future. Because San Diego basically tore it all down and parted ways with veterans like Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz and Matt Kemp, they have stocked the farm with young acquisitions and high draft picks. Among the first prospects to make an impact will be Hunter Renfroe, selected 13th overall in 2013. He sparkled during a brief call-up in 2016, hitting .371/.389/.800 with four homers and three doubles in 36 plate appearances. Renfroe is the starting right fielder and an NL Rookie of the Year candidate. Shortstop Luis Sardinas, catcher Austin Hedges and outfielder Manuel Margot also could make their marks this season.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
The young players continue to develop, the rotation overachieves and San Diego somehow avoids losing 100 games.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
The Padres, long known for their ability to piece together a productive relief corps, finished 23rd in the majors with a 4.13 bullpen ERA in 2016. A healthy Carter Capps — who eventually should overtake Brandon Maurer as closer — will help this season, and Brad Hand and Ryan Buchter were decent in setup roles last season. But with a rotation this ineffective, there is no margin — but plenty of opportunity — for error in the bullpen.
SURPRISING STAT
San Diego finished fifth in the majors with 125 stolen bases in 2016, despite ranking last in the majors with a .299 on-base percentage. Center fielder Travis Jankowski led the way with 30 steals, and speed could be a rare weapon for an offense that will have to get creative in an attempt to score any way it can.
Travis Jankowski
Charles LeClaire
BEST BETS
Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 64.5
World Series odds (via Vegas Insider): 500/1
TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS
1. Wil Myers, 1B: At 26 years old, the one-time prized prospect finally put the puzzle together. He hit 28 homers, scored 99 runs and drove in 94 with 28 stolen bases. Expect more of the same in 2017.
2. Travis Jankowski, OF: His primary fantasy role will be to garner 30-plus stolen bases for owners. He doesn’t offer much more in 5x5 roto leagues.
3. Hunter Renfroe, OF: He strikes out too much and walks too little to help fantasy owners with batting average or on-base percentage, but Renfroe has above-average power can produce 20-plus homers.
4. Manuel Margot, OF: The former Red Sox prospect was acquired by the Padres as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade a couple years ago. Still only 22 years old, expect Margot to provide great speed (SB appeal) with a little pop (10 HR ceiling).
5. Brandon Maurer, RP: It could be a bumpy ride at times, but he is the de facto closer for the Padres with sound strikeout rates.
(Courtesy of the FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)
PREDICTION
They’ll finish in the basement of the NL West (again) and post the worst winning percentage in the majors.
