Hot seats: Which skippers are most likely to get canned?
NEW YORK — I put the question to Walt Weiss directly. It is not a question I normally ask of managers, considering how difficult it is to land such jobs. But with the Rockies, well, the losing is relentless, the grind like hardly any other.
So, knowing full well that Weiss is under contract through next season, I asked if he wants to keep going, wants to return for his fourth year with the Rockies.
“Yeah,” Weiss said. “I think you can win here. And I want to be here for that. I think it can be done. It’s been done before. We haven’t been able to sustain it. But I truly believe we can win here.”
The Rockies reached the World Series in 2007, returned to the postseason in '09, had a winning record in '10. But this will be their fifth straight losing season, and their pitching again is the worst in the majors, just as it was a year ago.
August is upon us, and at least a dozen managers are under scrutiny, some more heavily than others. Weiss, though, does not appear to be in jeopardy — “that’s not even on the radar,” said Jeff Bridich, the Rockies’ first-year general manager.
“Walt is a tough guy. He’s very passionate about the game, very knowledgeable about the game,” Bridich added. “Just like me in this job as a new GM, I think he’s still learning in this job as a relatively new manager.”
The Rockies, believe it or not, are excited about their future, thinking they might be on the verge of developing a stable of young arms to complement what Weiss calls a “legit” core of young position players.
Yes, yes, we’ve heard it all before. But while Weiss admitted that he’s “tired of losing,” he said he was not worn out by the job or inclined to think about pursuing other work.
“No,” he said. “I can take a pretty good beating. There’s enough going on here that I haven’t lost hope. I guess when you lose hope, that’s when it’s over. But I haven’t lost hope.”
A number of other managers could be in greater peril. I’ve broken them down in three categories — interims, outright disappointments and those who could be in trouble if their teams’ promising seasons end badly.
Dan Jennings, Marlins. No team is more unpredictable than the Marlins, but the expectation is that Jennings will return to the front office.
The Marlins are 30-46 under Jennings after going 16-22 with Mike Redmond. In fairness, the Fish never had a chance after Giancarlo Stanton suffered a hamate fracture in his left wrist on June 26, but the experiment with Jennings clearly was not the answer.
Pat Murphy, Padres. Another example of a team that was better off with its previous manager — the Pads are 22-27 under Murphy after going 32-33 under Bud Black.
G.M. A.J. Preller will need to make a series of moves this offseason to protect his own job. Replacing Murphy will be an easy one, and ownership likely wants a bigger name.
Pete Mackanin, Phillies. Now this one is interesting, if only because the Phillies are 20-21 under Mackanin — and 17-7 since the All-Star break — after going 26-48 under Ryne Sandberg.
Once the season ends, incoming team president Andy MacPhail will decide upon GM Ruben Amaro Jr., and then Amaro or his replacement will decide upon Mackanin.
This is the third time that Mackanin has fared well after taking over a club, but teams generally are wary of elevating interims to a full-time position. The Cubs, in one recent example, stuck with Mike Quade after finishing 24-13 in 2010, then kept him for only one season.
Brad Ausmus, Tigers. New GM Al Avila notably did not promise that Ausmus would return in 2016, prompting a rival executive to raise an interesting question:
Does Ausmus even want to be back?
The Tigers figure to get worse before they get better, and a mutual parting might be in everyone’s best interests. Ausmus would be a natural in San Diego — he lives in Del Mar, Calif., and both played for the Padres and worked in their front office.
Ausmus likely will be better in his second job than in his first; the Tigers’ bullpen would drive any manager to tears.
John Farrell, Red Sox. Someone is going to suffer for the Sox’s miserable season, but ownership doesn’t seem inclined to punish GM Ben Cherington, who is presiding over a second straight last-place finish and third in four years.
Perhaps Cherington could dump enough of his roster to justify giving Farrell another chance; it was only last February that the club extended Farrell through 2017. Then again, a second Boston Tea Party might erupt if the Sox returned with the same management team.
Lloyd McClendon, Mariners. GM Jack Zduriencik might finally be a goner, and if that happens McClendon at least will be on notice, even though this is only his second season.
Then again, the Mariners often defy conventional wisdom, so perhaps ownership will again declare that all is well; McClendon, who won 87 games in his first season, certainly isn’t as culpable as Zduriencik.
The bigger picture: Starting in 2010, the M’s rank fifth in the majors in losses — and they could move up to third, ahead of the Rockies and Cubs, before the season is over.
Bryan Price, Reds. The speculation at the All-Star break about Barry Larkin soon replacing Price proved unfounded. Now that the Reds officially are rebuilding, an offseason change might not happen, either.
The bigger issue for the Reds will be fixing an offense that figures to remain largely intact in 2016, but ranks 11th in the NL in runs per game. The Reds, according to sources, declined to trade players such as right fielder Jay Bruce and closer Aroldis Chapman at the non-waiver deadline in part because they could not get the young position players they wanted in return.
Robin Ventura, White Sox. Ventura probably isn’t going anywhere after surviving the White Sox’s wretched first half; owner Jerry Reinsdorf loves him, and is extremely loyal to his employees.
At some point, though, the White Sox need to take a hard look at whether Ventura is the right choice long term — particularly when intriguing alternatives such as Bud Black are available.
Terry Collins, Mets. For all the Mets have accomplished, Collins remains without a contract for next season. Failing to make the playoffs could spark a change. An implosion in the playoffs might, too.
Collins does not face an easy road; he must navigate September while managing innings limits for Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, and winning the East will be necessary if both wild cards come from the Central.
John Gibbons, Blue Jays. At the Jays’ current pace, Gibbons stands a better chance of winning AL Manager of the Year than getting fired. But again, the season is not over yet.
The Jays already face an upheaval in upper management — Paul Beeston, the team president and CEO, is retiring at the end of the season. A sudden fade in September or October could further alter the team’s plans.
Don Mattingly, Dodgers. What is the payroll now, $300 million, $310 million, $320 million? Someone will pay if the Dodgers flame out, and it isn’t going to be the team’s new front office.
Mattingly isn’t to blame for the holes in both the Dodgers’ rotation and bullpen, but the question persists: Shouldn’t the Dodgers be better than this?
Matt Williams, Nationals. Injuries largely are responsible for the Nats’ inconsistency, and the team could ignite now that the players are reasonably healthy; both the Nationals and Mets also should benefit from playing weak NL East opponents in September.
Still, what happens if the Nats again fail to realize their vast potential? Williams declined to line up his rotation so that Max Scherzer would face the Mets in either of two series after the break, then failed to use either of his top two relievers, Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon, while getting swept in a closely contested three-game series at Citi Field. Greater urgency seemed warranted.
