The Atlanta Braves have had a seeming revolving door behind the plate in the last few seasons. Fans are concerned about the lack of a “stud” catching prospect coming up. Should they be?
I had the opportunity this week to participate in a conference call with Keith Law of ESPN regarding his top 100 list and organizational rankings. He answered a number of questions, and one of the ones I presented brought about an interesting look at the Atlanta Braves‘ catching depth.
First, the question and answer that prompted this:
Q. Catcher within the Braves system that is not a spot where they obviously have an elite prospect (and looking around the league, there’s) not an elite prospect at that position. (Then) you look around the majors, there are not a lot of elite catchers on offensive and defensive end. Is that a part of where the game is going or is that just a blip in the radar right now, do you think? Curious on your thoughts at that particular position.
KEITH LAW: I think you’re seeing an industry adjustment on what we expect of catchers. Now in the last two years, I am hearing more discussion, even from scouts, who are not necessarily using the data, certainly not drawing (from) the data, discussing receiving and framing in ways that were simply not a discussion five years ago.So what’s happening is the Ryan Doumit(s) of the world, the worst framers ever, they are just not going to catch. They might end up catching in the minors. But they are not going to be considered long term catchers, they are not going to end up high on my rankings because teams will say, he’s a terrible framer. He’s not going to stay back there.
The bar has gone up now that we can actually measure this stuff, and what that also means is you’re going to get some really good framers that just don’t hit as much, and teams are going to be happy with that, because they are still getting value. They are just simply not getting the offensive production.
And if you look at the three or four catchers on my list this year on the top 100, there’s not much elite offense coming from that position. The guys back there who tend to have the power have often been the bigger guys who turns out are not that great at framing. Wieters being a great example. He’s just a terrible framing catcher and has been one for most of his career and that type of catcher, we just may not see much of him going forward at all.
So, Keith is saying the game has fundamentally changed how it looks at catching. With the Braves’ focus on pitching and defense in their minor league development, it would fit that the focus is also on this change in how teams view catching. Let’s take a look at what the catchers have around.
In the Majors
Currently, the Atlanta Braves depth chart at catcher has Tyler Flowers listed at the top. Baseball Prospectus has some of the best catching metrics available on the internet, though some of them are available only to subscribers to their site, but that is much encouraged.
In 2016, Flowers ranked 6th in all of baseball in framing runs. That is a major spot to be. It is also notable that there were only 7 catchers in the entire league who saved more than 10 runs on the season through framing, and Flowers was one of those 7.
In blocking runs, Tyler didn’t do so well, with a -0.9 blocking runs in 2016, placing him 80th among the 104 ranked catchers on BP’s listing. Of course, that’s not near as bad as his throwing runs rating, which placed him 104th (that’s right, last) with a -3.7 throwing runs on the season.
BP has a statistic that accumulates all those numbers as well as each catcher’s other basic fielding numbers and rolls it into an over-arching number that is supposed to give an idea of the run value overall defensively of the catcher. Tyler overall rated 15th among all catchers in the major leagues last season with a 7.7 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average (AFRAA for future players).
The “big signee” of the position this winter was veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki had been with the Minnesota Twins in 2016. Suzuki is basically the opposite of Flowers, with -7.1 framing runs in 2016, ranking him 92nd of the 104 catchers ranked. However, Suzuki has a very good reputation for his ability to block pitches, and the metrics back that up with 1.7 blocking runs in 2016, ranking him 12th. Like Flowers, though, Suzuki does not do well in the throwing runs metric, with -1.9 runs, ranking him 97th of the 104 catchers rated.
Last, but not least, on the 40-man roster is heart throb Anthony Recker. Recker checks in with a -7.1 framing runs in 2016, ranking him just one slot ahead of Suzuki at 91st overall out of 104 catchers ranked. Recker had 0.6 blocking runs, which put him at 27th overall. His throwing runs were -0.5, ranking him 87th overall.
So, Flowers can really frame, and Suzuki and Recker can really block, but in general, the Braves catching is not blowing anyone away in these metrics, which is likely why so many are on short-term deals. What exactly is coming on the farm, though?
Mar 11, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Braeden Schlehuber (82) throws to third during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Down on the Farm
Some of BP’s statistics carry down to the farm, but not all. The blocking metric is not used in any minor leagues, and the framing only goes down to AA ball. Below low-A there are no measurements, so I’ll offer up some of the scouting reports on the guys currently listed on the rosters.
AAA (based on current roster listings, not projections) – David Freitas was signed this offseason as a minor league free agent. He had about an equal split between AA and AAA in 2016. The numbers were starkly different, however. In AA, he had 3.2 framing runs while posting -1.6 in AAA. Interestingly, he posted better throwing numbers in AAA, though still negative as he had a -0.4 throwing runs in AA and -0.1 in AAA. His AFRAA in AA was 2.8 and in AAA was -1.7.
Braeden Schlehuber fared well with framing in limited time with a 0.6 framing runs number, 0.0 throwing runs, and 0.6 AFRAA. Schlehuber has a very good reputation for working with pitchers and handling a staff.
Sal Giardina is the consummate professional and a great org catcher. Many have remarked that he’ll have a long career as a coach and maybe even a manager when he’s ready to make that transition, but for now, he still handles a staff well. He spent most of his time with high-A last year before a late season promotion to AAA to help when the catching depth was depleted. The only numbers on Giardina are from high-A, and they have him with a -0.2 throwing runs and AFRAA in limited innings.
Blake Lalli will likely get most of his playing time at first base, but he did work some behind the plate in 2016 and could fill in as needed in 2017. He posted the third-worst framing rating of all AAA catchers in 2016, posting a -14.8 framing runs. He also posted a 0.0 rating in throwing runs, giving him a -14.7 AFRAA.
AA – While he may end up at AAA, Joseph Odom had a breakthrough offensive season in 2016 while still showing the same defensive skills that the Braves have appreciated all along. He started the year at high-A, where they don’t have framing numbers, and his throwing skills have never been his forte, so seeing a -0.9 throwing runs and AFRAA each at high-A is not surprising. However, at AA, we start to see why the Braves like Odom. He posted a 0.4 framing run number with AA in a half-season there. He did post a -1.2 throwing run number, which led to a -0.8 AFRAA for his AA time.
Kade Scivicque‘s time with the Braves was also split, though he got very limited time at both locations for the Braves. He did spend a lot of time at high-A with the Tigers, however, so there was plenty of data for high-A, but only throwing runs are produced there, and that is not a forte of Scivicque, as he posted a -2.8 throwing runs and AFRAA at high-A. With his limited time at AA, he did post a -0.1 framing runs number and 0.0 throwing runs, but that was in a very limited scope. The Braves do believe his defensive forte is in his blocking ability behind the plate and feel he’ll need to work on his framing.
Armando Araiza was signed this offseason as a minor league free agent, and he split his 2016 between high-A and AA. With high-A, he posted numbers of 0.1 throwing runs and a 0.1 AFRAA. With AA, he had framing numbers, and they weren’t great, sitting at -1.0 framing runs in limited time while he posted a 0.0 throwing runs number for an overall -1.0 AFRAA in AA.
High-A – Tanner Murphy had an odd year in 2016. His only measurable number was a -1.6 throwing runs number, which led to an equal AFRAA. However, in 2015, he posted 3.1 throwing runs and 2.6 blocking runs in low-A, and he’s also widely regarded among people within the organization as the best framer in the organization (including Flowers), so that throwing number may be the result of some odd statistical quirks with his pitching staff in Carolina last season as well.
Low-A – Lucas Herbert has all the reputation you’d want in the world, but the one number that is there showed exactly what the eye test also revealed. While Herbert has a cannon, he ended up with a -0.2 throwing runs rating and AFRAA. His defense seemed to have quite a few lapses, especially in the middle of the season as the length of the year took a toll on his body. It’s a big reason I believe he’ll be returning to Rome in 2017.
On the other side of the coin, that same single measurement number validates what we saw in a positive way with Jonathan Morales, who posted an astounding 5.4 throwing runs and AFRAA for Rome in 2016. Morales took incredible strides behind the plate, and as a former infield still really learning the position, it speaks well to his ability to someday be a very high quality defender at the position at the highest levels.
Wigberto Nevarez has been an org guy for some time, and he fills a similar role as Lalli in the lower levels, playing a lot of first base and filling in at catcher when needed. He’s a solid defender behind the plate when he plays there, however, and he posted a 0.1 throwing runs and AFRAA rating in 2016.
Advanced Rookie – Brett Cumberland was the Atlanta Braves draft selection in the second competitive balance round in the 2016 draft, and many have big expectations of the switch-hitter’s bat, but questions about his glove. The long combined season of college and the pro game became evident as both his offensive and defensive effort lacked more and more as the season wore on in 2016. He’s reportedly worked hard this offseason and got great marks for framing at Cal in college.
Carlos Martinez has been with the organization for quite some time and really is around primarily because of his defensive skills. He has tremendous blocking ability and athleticism, and the Braves even tried him a couple games at third base this season in Danville.
Rookie – The guy who is starting to get a lot of notice from places like 2080 and other national sites at the lower levels is William Contreras. The Venezuelan native played all of 2016 at 18 years old and made impressions throughout with his excellent footwork behind the plate, framing, blocking, and incredible arm. He also showed some legitimacy offensively, but that’s not what we’re here to discuss. Contreras will be 19 for all of the 2017 season, and the Braves will start him in Danville, but it wouldn’t surprise if he pushed himself forward through positive performance.
Ricardo Rodriguez was actually signed the same July 2nd class as Contreras by the Padres as the top-rated catcher in that year’s class, but after coming over from the Padres in the Christian Bethancourt deal, he’s really struggled to make a positive impression, showing some bad game management behind the plate and poor blocking and framing as well. He does have a great arm, but without hitting either, that arm will only carry him so far.
Alan Crowley was about the opposite of Rodriguez. A college catcher really considered to be there as extra help, Crowley did nothing but hit, posting a .327/.375/.385 line, but of course, that was only over 52 at bats as the team’s third catcher, so there’s plenty of small sample size caveat that goes along with that. Crowley did make a solid impression for how he handled young arms as well, and the Braves may have found a sleeper here.
When the Braves traded away Jeff Francoeur over the summer, many remembered getting Dylan Moore back in the deal, but many forgot about the catcher the Braves got – probably because he never played catcher as a Braves farmhand. Matt Foley has one of the greatest personalities you could ask for in a minor league player, to match the Saturday Night Live character with the same name. He likely, however, is more personality than prospect behind the plate.
Foreign Rookie – Reports are difficult to come by on players in the Dominican, unless they really make an impression, so the only guy I can really comment on currently is a negative report on catcher Carlos Centeno who has an excellent arm, but from the report I got is basically a statue behind the plate.
New Names/New Roles – Alex Jackson is the guy most will have gotten to this point waiting to read about. Jackson hasn’t caught since his high school days in 2014, so that’s been multiple years without picking up the tools of ignorance. He’ll have a long road to go to get back to being comfortable behind the plate, which is why I’d imagine we won’t see him on minor league opening day, as he’ll likely be in extended spring until the Braves are ready to send him to wherever he lands. I do believe his swing needs considerable work as well, which the transition to catcher will not help, but that’s another issue for another day.
While there were other catchers signed in the international free agent class this summer, the big name one was Abrahan Gutierrez. The Braves were enamored by the young catcher as a 14 year-old, and they reported have had a deal in place with him for multiple seasons. The issue is that he has struggled with his conditioning in those seasons, and his defensive ability has taken some significant steps backward, per those who saw him before and most recently. The Braves can certainly afford to work him slowly based on the depth they have throughout the system, and they can get him into shape well, as he had reports of tremendous instincts in framing as one of the very positive notes about his profile.
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