AL Wild Card 2016: 5 reasons Orioles will win
The Baltimore Orioles find themselves matched up against their mortal enemies the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wild Card Game. Can they extend their season?
Despite taking a “two steps forward, three steps backward” approach to qualifying for the MLB postseason, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves playing in the AL Wild Card Game for the second time in five years. In 2012, the O’s downed the Texas Rangers to advance to the ALDS. This time, they square off against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Orioles lost the season series to the Jays by one game. In their 19 games, Baltimore was outscored by a margin of 97-81, with a few blowouts providing the extra margin. In the season’s final week, Buck Showalter’s bunch traveled up to Toronto and took two of three from the Blue Jays in a key series.
Both teams in the AL Wild Card Game had to endure a difficult battle to the finish just to get into the postseason. Neither will want to go quietly after just one game. Do the Orioles have what it takes to get past Toronto?
Here are five reasons the Orioles will be advancing through the Wild Card Game and into the ALDS.
Sep 30, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop (6) hits a 2-RBI double during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
5. Quick strike can take the crowd out of it
Last year, when the Blue Jays stormed to the AL East title, thousands of Canadians discovered they actually had more than a passing interest in baseball. For years, you could hear a pin drop in the Rogers Centre, but now that the Jays have built a winner again, the place is raucous and rowdy. Just ask the Texas Rangers how powerful the home-field advantage can be for the Blue Jays in October.
The Orioles had their shot at claiming home-field advantage, but blew a 3-0 lead to the New York Yankees last week. No use crying over spilled milk now. In September, the Orioles solved many of the road woes that had plagued them all season long. They took key series wins on the road from the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. For the year, the Orioles had a 38-42 record away from home, but went 10-5 during the season’s final month.
Putting a few runs on the board in the early innings will be crucial for the Orioles. That should quiet the crowd down just a bit. One big blast from Mark Trumbo or Chris Davis will put the Jays on their heels and change the dynamic of the game.
The first inning has been a problem for the Orioles this year. As a team, they were outscored 107-86 in the game’s first frame. In this crucial game, they cannot afford to be behind the eight ball in the early going. The Orioles do have that ability to strike early and often, as evidenced by their four-homer first inning in August against the Houston Astros.
Sep 30, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Mark Trumbo (45) hits a 2-run home run during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
4. Mark Trumbo is heating up
The Orioles got 47 Trumbombs this season, giving them the AL leader in home runs for the fourth consecutive season. Trumbo hit a home run every 12.4 at-bats in the first half of the season before dropping off slightly and hitting one out every 15.4 at-bats after the break. That minor dip in homer frequency wasn’t the problem, however.
Trumbo hit a remarkable .288/.341/.582 in the first half, but slid all the way down to .214/.284/.470 in the second half. If he wasn’t homering, Trumbo was likely striking out or popping out weakly. Still, Showalter stuck with Trumbo in the middle of his batting order.
Flipping the script on his second-half slide, the right fielder/DH slashed .272/..330/.544 over the final month of the season, his best month since July. Over the final six games of the season, crucial, must-win games, he hit .440 with two home runs.
The Orioles need one more big game out of Mark Trumbo, and he appears to be locked in yet again. The big slugger’s best month of the season came in April, when he appeared to be more focused on making line-drive contact rather than hitting home runs. His first nine hits of the season were all singles.
Trumbo is one of the league’s biggest embracers of advanced metrics when it comes to hitting, and he is well-versed in launch angle and exit velocity. He generates some of the best backspin, and almost all of his home runs are no-doubters. There is some downside to that type of swing, but when Trumbo is seeing the ball well as he is now, he is a threat to go deep every single time up.
Sep 29, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) celebrates with teammates after scoring a run in the dugout during the fourth inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
3. Chris Davis is at home in Toronto
Waiting for Chris Davis to get it going on a consistent basis this season has been frustrating for the Orioles to say the least. In the first year of the biggest contract in team history, Davis struck out 219 times and failed to hit 40 home runs or drive in over 100 runs. In the second half, Davis batted an even .200 and struck out 97 times in only 71 games.
While the regular season may not have gone exactly how Davis planned, he can take solace in the fact that his team’s biggest game of the season takes place in one of his favorite places to hit. In 50 games in Toronto for his career, Davis has slugged 17 home runs while posting an OPS of 1.095. This year, he hit four in 10 games.
For some reason, Chris Davis sees the ball well in the Rogers Centre. Of course, the Blue Jays could render this point completely moot by starting left-hander Francisco Liriano. Davis hit only eight of his 38 home runs this year against southpaws.
Sep 29, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (31) walks towards the dugout after being relieved during the seventh inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Orioles won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
2. The starting rotation is pitching lights-out baseball
Guess which team had the best ERA in all of baseball in September. Would you have guessed the Baltimore Orioles? Probably not.
Somehow, someway, the Orioles’ rotation came up big in the final month of the season when it mattered most. The full season numbers are still abysmal, and the staff ranks 24th in the league with a 4.72 ERA. In September, however, the starting rotation posted a very respectable 3.79 ERA and won 13 decisions. It was the first month of the season in which the starting rotation posted an ERA under 4.50.
Buck Showalter has yet to name his starting pitcher for Tuesday’s game, but his options are Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman. Jimenez was once left for dead after pitching to an ERA over 7.00 for much of the season. With his mechanics harnessed, the much-maligned starter has been nearly unhittable over his past seven starts with a 2.45 ERA and only 13 walks allowed in 47.2 innings pitched. Jimenez pitched a gem last time out against Toronto, allowing but one hit in 6.2 innings of work.
Chris Tillman, who started for the O’s on Opening Day, has also pitched well of late after battling a sore shoulder. He has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, and also conquered some Rogers Centre demons last time out. Tillman kept the Orioles in the game last Wednesday by allowing two runs, one earned over 5.2 innings. He did allow nine baserunners.
Both Tillman and Jimenez have their flaws, but Jimenez has looked incredible of late. Tillman is the staff’s workhorse, but he does have an ugly 7.01 ERA in the Rogers Centre in his career. It’s hard to get a read for how much confidence Showalter has in Jimenez, though. Regardless, both have pitched well down the stretch when it mattered most.
Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles pinch hitter Hyun Soo Kim (25) hits a two run home run against Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
1. The Blue Jays limped to the finish
The Blue Jays were one of the popular picks to run away with the division, but they nearly missed the playoffs after struggling mightily in September. The Orioles played some of their best baseball to finish September with a 17-12 record. The Blue Jays went 13-16 in that time frame despite continuing to get solid pitching from their starters.
The Jays struggled to wrap up a playoff berth because their offense went cold and their bullpen self-destructed. Health has been an issue in Toronto this year, with Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson missing significant time. Donaldson is nursing a sore hip and Bautista made two trips to the disabled list this season.
While Donaldson has continued to take the field nearly every day, he batted only .222 with three home runs and seven RBIs in September and October. His .389 slugging percentage would also indicate something is up. Bautista is in a contract year, but had his worst year as a Blue Jay. Last fall’s hero slashed only .234/.366/.452 with only 22 home runs.
As a team, Toronto slugged only .363 in September, the third-worst mark in the league. Michael Saunders and Russell Martin both hit below .200. Of the team’s big bats, only Edwin Encarnacion stepped up to the challenge.
Most importantly, the Blue Jays bullpen went belly-up down the stretch. Jason Grilli allowed nine earned runs in only 8.2 innings and gave up four big home runs. Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini also hit a wall, allowing nine runs in 11 innings. Typically reliable closer Roberto Osuna blew two saves, and gave up a crucial home run to Hyun Soo Kim of the Orioles. Set-up man Joaquin Benoit tore his calf while storming the field during a benches-clearing melee.
The Blue Jays also enter the Wild Card Game without their best starting pitchers available. Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, and Marco Estrada have all dominated the Orioles, but all three pitched in the regular season’s final series. That leaves Francisco Liriano or Marcus Stroman to start against the Orioles. Liriano should be the choice by virtue of his 10-strikeout performance against the Orioles last week, but is prone to wildness. Stroman went 1-2 against the Orioles this season with a 7.04 ERA and allowed four home runs in four starts.
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