RJ Young's 24-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Entering Week 14

With 18 games carrying College Football Playoff stakes and 36 teams still alive, this is the weekend that proves college football needs a 24-team bracket more than ever.

Only four games in this year’s CFP will be true home games, while a 24-team format would feature 16. The larger bracket not only creates a more precise system for identifying the sport’s national champion but also quadruples the number of home games in a sport where home-field advantage matters most.

This is the last weekend for many of those teams to make a statement about who they are and how the CFP selection committee should view their season. But I don’t trust this committee to recognize who these teams have beaten or who they’ve become over the last four months. It has too much control at a time when the scoreboard should be the only true decision-maker of who belongs and who doesn’t.

In August, the Big Ten and others began "populating" the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include: 

• Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
• Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
• Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make

Which begs the question: How would the 24-team CFP look if the tournament began today?

In my analysis of a 24-team format, 27 Power 4 programs — including eight from the SEC, seven from the Big 12, seven from the Big Ten, and five from the ACC — would still have a path to the postseason. And that’s before factoring in Notre Dame or the Group of 6 contenders.

Heading into Week 14 of the season, teams that have proven themselves in conference play still have just as much opportunity to win it all as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s a huge win for the sport. It creates a more democratic system for determining the best team, with less debate and more certainty.

The scoreboard has more agency. 

And fans have the best chance in the sport’s history to see their team play for — and win — a national title.

Here's how it works:

This 24-team format features 18 automatic qualifiers

I’ve set it up to look like what you’ll read below and stand in to represent the College Football Playoff selection committee.

The top four teams from each of the Power 4 conferences, based on conference standings, automatically qualify for the CFP. The two highest-ranked Group of 6 teams — not necessarily conference champions — also receive automatic bids. The remaining six at-large spots are filled at the selection committee’s discretion.

Teams are seeded by the selection committee

As the personification of the selection committee, I am encouraged to take into account head-to-head matchups, strength of record, coaching, personnel and quality of out-of-conference play when seeding teams.

Winning a conference championship is a strong indicator for a top-seeded team.

Winning a conference title does not automatically qualify a team for a higher seed than a non-conference champion.

The 24-team playoff’s greatest strength is the addition of two rounds of home games

My top 25, which you can read here, is the basis on which these seedings are assigned.

The first two rounds of a 24-team playoff would feature two rounds of home games. The four teams that advance through the opening rounds will play their next game at a New Year’s Six Bowl in a neutral site semifinal. 

Teams seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 9 to No. 16 each open the tournament with a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 17 to No. 24 each must play on the road twice to advance to the neutral site quarterfinals.

I need to summarize this, because it’s the best aspect of the 24-team CFP: 16 different campuses host home playoff games. 

With that, here is a look at the Week 13 24-team CFP bracket:

FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME

1. Ohio State (11-0), Big Ten 

The Buckeyes have won 15 straight games, extending their record for the longest active winning streak in the FBS. It also marks the Buckeyes' longest streak since winning 19 straight games from 2018-19.

2. Indiana (11-0), Big Ten

Indiana leads all FBS teams in point differential at +348 and averages more points per game than any power conference team at 43.3.

3. Texas A&M (11-0), SEC

Texas A&M ranks second in the FBS in sacks with 39 and 10th in the FBS in scoring at 38.1 points per game. The Aggies are also the undefeated FBS team with three wins vs. ranked opponents.

4. Georgia (10-1), SEC

Georgia is one of three FBS teams with a win over a team ranked in the top 10 of the latest CFP rankings (Texas Tech and Oklahoma are the others).

5. Oregon (10-1), Big Ten

Since their Week 7 loss to Indiana, the Ducks one of four power conference teams to have a point differential of +106 or higher in that span.

6. Ole Miss (10-1), SEC

Ole Miss leads all power conference teams in total offense at 5,432 yards, and also ranks sixth among power conference teams in big plays at 116. If the Rebels win the Egg Bowl, they will be 7-1 in SEC play for just the second time since 2000.

7. Oklahoma (9-2), Big 12, At-Large

The Sooners are the only FBS team with five wins over ranked opponents. They also have the most sacks of any FBS team (41).

8. Texas Tech (10-1), Big 12

Texas Tech is one of two FBS teams averaging over 40 points per game and allowing less than 14.

FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME

9. BYU (10-1), Big 12

A win this weekend against UCF puts the Cougars into the Big 12 title game with a chance to win the only automatic qualifying berth the Big 12 holds in a 12-team format. A loss this weekend would almost certainly leave them out of the 12-team bracket. In a 24-team scenario, they’re playing for the right to host a home game as well as building toward their first appearance in the College Football Playoff.

10. Texas (9-2), SEC, At-Large

The Longhorns are at the mercy of the selection committee in the 12-team CFP with three losses, including one to a bad Florida team. But even an 8-4, Texas might be good enough to still reach the CFP with one of the sport’s most talented teams.

This would also be the first time that the Longhorns beat Oklahoma and did not make the CFP in three years.

11. Miami (Fla.) (9-2), ACC, Previously Ranked 18

The Hurricanes have shown themselves to be one of the ACC’s most talented teams — even achieving a No. 2 ranking from me and the AP at one point this season — but they're almost certainly going to be left out of the 12-team CFP despite having the same number of wins and losses as the Notre Dame, a team they beat.

12. Alabama (9-2), SEC

The Tide fell from being considered one of the four best teams in the sport to a program that needs to win against Auburn this weekend just to keep its hopes of making the 12-team CFP alive. A win against Auburn will earn Alabama a trip to the SEC Championship Game, where it will likely have to win to edge into the 12-team CFP.

In the 24-team CFP, the Tide might still host a home playoff game.

13. Notre Dame (9-2), Independent, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 11

No team has looked better among those with two losses or more than the Fighting Irish, who have grown in strength with each game, especially defensively. Notre Dame has allowed 15 points or fewer in six of its last seven games.

Notre Dame running back Jeremyiah Love has rushed for 1,306 yards and 17 touchdowns this season.

14. Vanderbilt (9-2), SEC, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 13

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia can make his claim for the Heisman Trophy stronger with a decisive win and a brilliant showing against rival Tennessee. Pavia has thrown for 2,924 yards, rushed for 661 yards and totaled 34 touchdowns in 11 games this season. He has thrown for 365 yards or more with at least three passing touchdowns in each of the Commodores' last three games.

15. Michigan (9-2), Big Ten

The Wolverines can make a strong argument not just for an invitation to the CFP, but to contend for the national title with a win against archnemesis Ohio State on Saturday. The team that has rushed for the most yards in "The Game" has won the last 23 times the Buckeyes and Wolverines have played each other.

And Michigan has had a 100-yard rusher in 10 of 11 games this season.

16. Utah (9-2), Big 12

Like Texas, the Utes are a longshot for selection into the CFP, as one of the four best teams in the Big 12, they’d not only be included in the 24-team format, but would be playing this weekend for the chance to host a home playoff game.

There’s still hope that the Utes could make the Big 12 Championship Game with a win against Kansas, a loss by Texas Tech, and wins by BYU and Arizona State.

ON THE ROAD

17. Virginia (9-2), ACC

The Cavaliers can notch their second 10-win season in program history and first since 1989 with a win against Virginia Tech this weekend. But the Cavs have only defeated the Hokies twice in the 21st century.

The last time Virginia notched 10 wins, it also managed a No. 1-ranking in the AP Poll for the three weeks in October 1990.

18. North Texas (10-1), Group Of 6, Previously Ranked: 20

After securing just the third 10-win season in program history last Saturday — 1947, 1977, 2025 — the Mean Green can earn the first 11-win season in program history with a win against Temple.

19. Navy (9-2), Group of 6, Previously Ranked: 21

With a win over Memphis on Thanksgiving Day, the Midshipmen can earn a chance to play for the American Conference Championship. However, because they’ve lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with North Texas, Navy would need to be the highest-ranked team in the conference in the CFP selection committee’s ranking. 

And Tulane is the only American Conference team ranked in the Week 13 rankings.

20. Tennessee (8-3), SEC, At-Large, Previously Ranked: NR

The Vols are looking to pick up their first win against a CFP top 25-ranked team this season when they play Vanderbilt.

21. Arizona State (8-3), Big 12, Previously Ranked: NR

The Sun Devils have a chance to make the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a loss by BYU, Texas Tech or Utah.

22. Pittsburgh (8-3), ACC, Previously Ranked: 23

The Panthers can earn a spot in the ACC title game with a win against Miami and a loss by either Virginia or SMU.

23. SMU (8-3), ACC, Previously Ranked: 24

Like Virginia, the Mustangs can earn one of the two spots in the ACC title game with a win against Cal on Saturday night. And the Golden Bears fired former head coach Justin Wilcox last Sunday.

24. Georgia Tech (8-2), ACC, Previously Ranked: 14

Georgia Tech, Miami and Duke each have to hope for losses by SMU and Virginia, and a Miami win against Pitt to get to a tiebreaker scenario that would fall to strength of schedule within the conference.

However, if Georgia Tech defeats 10-1 Georgia this weekend, it has a strong argument for inclusion into the CFP as an at-large team.

Above is how the CFP would look if it ended today, but there will be changes and teams not included in the bracket that still have a chance to earn entry into the tournament.

Teams on the bubble have taken on losses, but not enough losses for them not to crawl into the top quarter of their conference, and, with 10 or even just nine wins in the regular season, could find themselves into an automatic qualifier spot.

Every game matters. Rivalry games matter more.

No one in Columbus, Ohio, needs to be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t won "The Game" since 2019, and a win for a Michigan team that has won eight games heading into "The Game" this season could almost certainly mean the Wolverines would be in the CFP.

Texas A&M, which hasn't won a conference title this century or a national title since 1939, will have to stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what could be a spot in the SEC Championship on the line for the Aggies, and a spot in the CFP for the Longhorns. 

Good, Old-Fashioned Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this year makes it conceivable that a loss to the Yellow Jackets could see the Dawgs left out of the CFP for the first time in three years.

The 24-team CFP takes on the best aspects of the November rivalry: home and away games played on campuses across the country where atmosphere, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.

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