NCAA Basketball: Best Bets for New Year's Eve showdowns
Dec 28, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Xavier Musketeers head coach Chris Mack reacts during the first half against the Providence Friars at the Cintas Center. Xavier won 82-56. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Best Bets returns to look at a nice slate of NCAA basketball games for New Year’s Eve.
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 7-6
Check out past editions of this feature: Week one, two, three and four.
The sports focus for December 31st will certainly be on the two college football semi-final games, but college basketball has some solid games as well.
Last week saw the Illini and Clemson Tigers pull through with victories over Missouri and South Carolina respectively, but Kentucky surprisingly let everyone down. I’m still scratching my head about that loss. I still think Kentucky is much better than the Louisville Cardinals, but Rick Pitino really did a good job of slowing down and muddying up the game.
Louisville is also an excellent defensive team (no. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating), but I thought the sheer talent of the Wildcats could overcome it. That also was quite the atmosphere for much of the team’s first true college basketball road game. My guess is that if they played the same game in March, Kentucky would pull through by double digits.
This week we’re taking a look at interesting match-ups in the Big East, including a potentially scary road trip for No. 17 Xavier to Georgetown, a top 10 game between No. 1 Villanova and No. 10 Creighton, and Pittsburgh’s conference clash with No. 24 Notre Dame. Let’s dive into the lines.
Dec 28, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Xavier Musketeers guard Trevon Bluiett (5) shoots during the first half against the Providence Friars at the Cintas Center. Xavier won 82-56. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
17 Xavier (-2) at Georgetown
Who are the Georgetown Hoyas? They currently sit at 8-5 with their best victory coming against Oregon in Maui. They also have a nice road win at Syracuse, but the Orange also lost to St. John’s by over 30. Georgetown’s losses have come against good teams such as Wisconsin and Maryland, but they also have lost to Arkansas State.
All of this leads up to Saturday’s game against Xavier, which is probably a must-win if the Hoyas want to sniff the NCAA Tournament this season.
I am going with the Musketeers in this one. Can Georgetown win this game? Sure, but this squad seems too inconsistent.
For Xavier, it is the type of game they must have if they want to compete for the Big East crown. The Musketeers laid an egg last season at home against Georgetown, but pounded them on the road, 88-70. For a relatively veteran team, this is a game that they need to go into and just take care of business.
Expect a close game throughout, but Xavier will come out on top in the final stretch and win by 6-8 points.
Pick: Xavier (-2)
Next: 24 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Dec 28, 2016; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Mike Brey walks to the locker room at the end of the first half against the Saint Peter’s Peacocks at the Purcell Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
24 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (-1)
Alright Notre Dame, let’s try this again.
I picked the Irish to defeat the Boilermakers a couple weeks ago and at halftime it seemed to be a good pick. Notre Dame was hitting three’s, breaking Purdue down off the dribble and generally blitzing the Big Ten squad to a 14-point halftime lead.
In the second half, Purdue came roaring back and ended up beating Notre Dame and covering the spread. Brutal.
But I am still confident in picking Notre Dame today against Pittsburgh because offensively, they’ll be able to do whatever they want. This Panther team is 133rd in defensive efficiency and has given up 106 points to Marshall, 90 to Eastern Michigan and 79 to Buffalo.
Notre Dame also has a trio of upperclassmen – VJ Beachem, Steve Vasturia and Matt Farrell – who know the dangers and challenges of ACC basketball on the road. I think they come ready to play and defeat the Panthers by around 10 in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Notre Dame (+1)
Next: 1 Villanova at 9 Creighton
Dec 28, 2016; Villanova, PA, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Josh Hart (3) and guard Jalen Brunson (1) walk off the court during a timeout against the DePaul Blue Demons late in the second half at The Pavilion. Villanova defeated DePaul, 68-65. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
1 Villanova (-1) at 9 Creighton
Now back to the Big East for the premier game of the day, as the defending champs travel to Omaha to play the Bluejays. Both teams are in the top 10 and in line for a Big East conference championship dual. Today’s game will give the winner an important first push.
I think Creighton gets it done today. Villanova has played with fire a bit this season with close victories over Purdue (79-76), Notre Dame (74-66) and DePaul (68-65). Creighton is better than all of those teams. They possess the best offensive output of all those teams, according to KenPom.
One thing of interest is how Creighton will defend Villanova with freshman big man Justin Patton. The 7-footer will have a tough task with Villanova’s ability to spread the floor and screen the ball. Purdue’s 7’2″ Isaac Haas had difficulties doing this, but Patton should be okay given his athleticism and ability to move on the perimeter.
Offensively, Creighton should be able to match every punch from the Wildcats this afternoon. It is a deep, experienced scoring machine that should be buoyed by a raucous Bluejay crowd. Villanova is used to atmospheres and games such as these, but Creighton just seems to be that good.
Pick: Creighton (+1)
Check back next week for a recap of how we finished this week and our overall record. Meanwhile, enjoy a fascinating set of games!
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