2025-26 Sweet 16 Betting Report: Swing in Futures Liability Impacting Books

As March Madness rolls into Sweet 16 odds, one of the most interesting developments is not about the Thursday-Friday eight-pack of games.

Rather, at least for Caesars Sports, it’s about the quantum shift over the past week in March Madness championship liabilities.

In short, what was recently good is now bad, and vice-versa.

"We’ve written a third of our futures handle for the season in just the last week. And there’s been a big swing " Caesars college basketball trader Patrick Berbert said Wednesday afternoon. "St. John’s is now our biggest liability to win the Tournament.

"Before the Tournament, Michigan was one of our biggest liabilities, but now is one of our biggest winners."

Berbert and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on March Madness Sweet 16 odds, heading into the second weekend of the biggest multi-day sports betting event in America.

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Storm Brewing

No. 5 seed St. John’s is 30-6 straight up (SU) and 20-16 against the spread (ATS). Up next is a huge Friday night battle in D.C. vs. No. 1 seed Duke (34-2 SU/20-16 ATS).

As noted above, Rick Pitino’s Red Storm have been a trendy pick over the past week to win the national title. Likewise, they’re a popular play in Friday’s first tipoff, at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Caesars Sports opened Duke as a 6.5-point favorite and moved to -7 a couple of times. St. John’s action moved it back to Blue Devils -6.5, where the line sits as of Wednesday afternoon.

"Seven is the number where buyback has been," Berbert said, while anticipating more St. John’s money in the next 48 hours. "The Johnnies are gonna be the popular underdog, along with Arkansas.

"I think we’re gonna be supporting Duke, mainly because of our futures liability."

Berbert pointed out that the Blue Devils might have an overlooked advantage.

"The game is at Capitol One in D.C," he said. "Duke played there [Feb. 21] vs. Michigan, and it was a rowdy Duke fan base. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case again."

The Blue Devils were 2.5-point underdogs and beat the then-No. 1 Wolverines 68-63.

Dash for Cash

No. 3 seed Illinois vs. No. 2 seed Houston is the last game on Thursday night, with a 10:05 p.m. ET start. It might not seem as attractive as St. John’s-Duke, Michigan State-UConn or Arkansas-Arizona.

But betting says otherwise.

"Our biggest-bet game will be Illinois vs. Houston," Berbert said. "Those are two high-profile teams, and with the shorter spread, it’s gonna attract so many bettors."

Houston (30-6 SU/18-18 ATS) opened as a 3-point favorite vs. Illinois (26-8 SU/18-16 ATS). The line dipped to -2, then rebounded as high as -3.5. Caesars has the Cougars -3 as of Wednesday afternoon.

"We got up to 3.5 once, and it didn’t last very long," Berbert said. "Three is gonna be the sweet  spot. I don’t see this getting to four or back to two.

"I think we’re gonna see great two-way action."

March Madness Sharp Side

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone is getting involved with No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue, the first game on the Sweet 16 oddsboard, at 7:10 p.m. ET Thursday.

The Longhorns (21-14 SU/19-15 ATS) are the only double-digit seed remaining, nabbing a First Four win over N.C. State, then beating BYU in the first round and stunning No. 3 seed Gonzaga in Round 2, 74-68.

The Boilermakers (29-8 SU/17-20 ATS) are 7.5-point favorites. Stone likes Texas to stay within the number.

"Texas has really caught a second wind in the NCAA Tournament, playing its best basketball of the season," Stone said. "The Longhorns have seen Matas Vokietaitis grow up right before their eyes."

Vokietaitis, a 7-foot center who transferred to Texas from Florida Atlantic, has totaled 55 points and 33 rebounds in the Longhorns' three Tournament victories.

The Longhorns are 11-5 ATS this season as the underdog.

 "If Vokietaitis can stay out of foul trouble, then I think Texas takes Purdue down to the wire," Stone said.

Sharp and Public ‘Dog

At 9:45 p.m. ET Thursday, it’s No. 4 Arkansas (28-8 SU/23-13 ATS) vs. No. 1 Arizona (34-2 SU/24-14 ATS). As Berbert mentioned above, the Razorbacks are trendy underdogs.

Caesars opened the Wildcats -8.5, dipped to -7.5 Tuesday afternoon and remained -7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

"That’s where the sharp bettors are telling us this is going. They like the ‘dog here in Arkansas," Berbert said, while also noting coach John Calipari’s stout 12-3 ATS record in Sweet 16 games. "John Calipari in the Sweet 16 has been phenomenal against the spread.

"I believe the public is gonna back Arkansas here, too. This will be a game where we’re pulling for the favorite, and that doesn’t happen too often."

Party Crashers

A matchup of No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska wasn’t on anybody’s card preseason, and probably still not there a week ago. But the border Big Ten rival Hawkeyes and Huskers square off at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday.

Nebraska (28-16 SU/19-15 ATS) opened -3 vs. Iowa (23-12 SU/20-15 ATS), even with the Hawkeyes coming off a shocking Round of 32 upset over No. 1 Florida, 73-72.

"These are two of the feel-good stories of the year. Nebraska was unranked to start the season and picked to finish 10th or worse in the Big Ten," Berbert said.

And in eight previous NCAA Tournament trips, the Huskers were 0-8 SU. Now, they’ve got two wins in a row.

However, early action is leaning into the short underdog.

"Bettors disagreed with Nebraska -3. Sharp action has taken us down to Nebraska -1.5. That 3 was too high," Berbert said. "At 1.5, I think we’re gonna see two-way action. With these two teams on a neutral court, I think it’s close to a pick ‘em."

Great Lakes Stakes

The Big Ten not only has six of the final 16 teams, but two from the state of Michigan. And both play on Friday night.

First up is No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, at 7:35 p.m. ET. Caesars opened the Wolverines -10.5 and got bet down to Michigan -9.5 by Wednesday afternoon.

"All year long with Michigan, we were always rooting for the ‘dog. But this time, bettors are heavily invested in the 10-point underdog Alabama," Berbert said. "I think we’re gonna need Michigan."

Plus, as noted above, Michigan (33-3 SU/16-20 AT) is a much better outcome than Alabama (25-9 SU/16-18 ATS) in March Madness futures odds.

At 9:45 p.m. ET, it’s No. 3 seed Michigan State (27-7 SU/19-15 ATS) vs. No. 2 seed UConn (31-5 SU/14-22 ATS).

Caesars opened the game at pick ‘em and got as far as Huskies -2.5 on Monday, despite the Huskies being one of the worst spread-covering outfits in all college basketball. The line dipped to UConn -2 on Monday afternoon and remained there Wednesday afternoon.

"Michigan State-UConn is seeing great two-way action at the 2," Berbert said, while adding it’s a noteworthy coaching matchup, too: the Spartans’ Tom Izzo vs. the Huskies’ Danny Hurley. "You’ve got two phenomenal coaches here, going at it for 40 minutes."