SMU vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 6, 2025

Updated Sep. 6, 2025 9:04 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 17 SMU Mustangs (1-0) are only 2.5-point favorites against the Baylor Bears (0-1) on Saturday, September 6, 2025. The contest has an over/under of 64.5 points.

In their most recent game, the Mustangs won versus the East Texas A&M Lions, 42-13. Against the Auburn Tigers in their most recent contest, the Bears lost 38-24.

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SMU vs. Baylor Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 6, 2025 at 12 p.m. ET
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas
TV: The CW
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

SMU vs Baylor Betting Information updated as of September 6, 2025, 8:45 a.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
SMU	-2.5 (-117)	-139	+117	64.5	-109	-113

SMU vs. Baylor Prediction

Pick ATS: SMU (-2.5)
Pick OU: Under (64.5)
Prediction: SMU 33, Baylor 27

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the SMU Mustangs vs. the Baylor Bears game on FOX Sports!

SMU vs. Baylor Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Mustangs 34, Bears 31.
The Mustangs have a 58.2% chance to collect the win in this game per the moneyline's implied probability. The Bears have a 46.1% implied probability.
SMU compiled a 7-6-0 record against the spread last season.
Baylor has compiled a 0-1-0 record against the spread this year.

SMU vs. Baylor: 2025 Stats Comparison

	SMU	Baylor
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	42 (40)	24 (79)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	13 (50)	38 (114)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	3 (119)	0 (1)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	3 (8)	0 (94)

SMU 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Kevin Jennings	QB	260 YDS (73.3%) / 2 TD / 1 INT 12 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 12 RUSH YPG
Romello Brinson	WR	7 REC / 121 YDS / 1 TD / 121 YPG
Jalen Cooper	WR	5 REC / 73 YDS / 1 TD / 73 YPG
Chris Johnson Jr.	RB	44 YDS / 1 TD / 44 YPG / 7.3 YPC
Cam Robertson	DL	4 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK
Kevin Allen	DL	4 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK
Ahmaad Moses	DB	4 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Terry Webb	DL	3 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK

Baylor 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Sawyer Robertson	QB	419 YDS (56.3%) / 3 TD / 0 INT
Michael Trigg	TE	7 REC / 99 YDS / 1 TD / 99 YPG
Kole Wilson	WR	8 REC / 134 YDS / 0 TD / 134 YPG
Kobe Prentice	WR	2 REC / 38 YDS / 1 TD / 38 YPG
Keaton Thomas	LB	16 TKL / 0 TFL
Kendrick Simpkins	DB	1 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 SACK
Devyn Bobby	DB	6 TKL / 0 TFL
Jacob Redding	DB	6 TKL / 0 TFL