NASCAR Cup Series

Bubble drivers discuss playoff push at midway point of regular season

Published May. 13, 2024 11:46 a.m. ET

DARLINGTON, S.C. — When Chris Buescher screamed at Tyler Reddick after their door-slamming on the track cost Buescher the victory Sunday at Darlington Raceway, he mentioned the winner sticker on Reddick's car.

It might seem like a weird thing to do, but for Buescher, that showed what was on the line for each of them in a race won by Buescher teammate and co-owner Brad Keselowski.

With a victory earlier this year at Talladega, Reddick knows he is headed to the playoffs. After his 30th-place finish Sunday thanks to the flat tire that resulted from the contact with Reddick, Buescher is just 15 points up on the playoff bubble midway through the regular season.

"There's a win sticker on his doortop that I told him about that makes a bad day like this not matter near as much to them, but it still matters to us," Buescher said. "That was a major cost to us not only for a win but to finish [30th] because of a flat tire — fortunately we got stage points on the day from running good — but one more decision and saying sorry doesn't fix it."

The race Sunday marked the 13th race of the 26-race regular season. No driver in the past four years who has been outside of the playoff bubble at the midway point has made it into the playoffs without a win.

The 16-driver Cup playoff field consists of the regular-season champion, the drivers with the most wins (any ties broken by points) and then if there are any spots remaining, those with no wins but the highest in points.

There likely won't be more than 16 automatic bids for wins as only eight drivers have won this year. It would be highly unlikely nine drivers who haven't won yet this year will find their way to victory lane over the next 13 races.

Still, any driver without a win, with the exception of Martin Truex Jr. (who is 140 points up on the current cutoff) is probably nervous.

"I don't think I'll feel good until I win a race and get locked in," said Ty Gibbs, who is 74 points above the cutline after a second-place finish at Kansas. "But [it's] definitely better than last year [when I was behind]."

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Those who feel good include the three drivers with multiple wins are guaranteed spots — Denny Hamlin (three), William Byron (three) and Kyle Larson (two).

The five drivers with one win aren't mathematical guarantees just yet but should have no worries — Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Daniel Suarez.

Truex, who isn't just 140 points up on the current cutoff but 66 points up on the next winless driver is in quite solid shape. In fact, he's probably more concerned about trying to win the regular-season championship as he is just 30 points behind points leader Larson.

"We're not going to just throw races away to try to win I wouldn't think, but you never know, I guess," Truex said.

Five drivers with decent cushions on the current cutoff should feel good as long as they don't have many wrecks or there isn't a flurry of drivers outside the bubble who win a race.

Those are Truex, Gibbs (74 points above the current cutoff), Ryan Blaney (55), Alex Bowman (49) and Ross Chastain (42).

"I feel good," Chastain said. "I do. We've left a ton of points out there as everybody could say, but the speed is there to go and hang massive points and win races. So that's the goal."

Blaney is the defending Cup champion and Chastain made it to the Championship 4 in 2022, while Gibbs and Bowman missed the playoffs.

"If we run how we're supposed to run, it'll kind of take care of itself," Bowman said. "We're in an OK spot right now. We obviously wish we had a win, but we've been trending better and running better."

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And then there are those who are firmly on the inside or outside of the bubble: Buescher (+15), Kyle Busch (+8), Chase Briscoe (+6), Bubba Wallace (-6) and Joey Logano (-30).

They have to be nervous, the ones who don't want to look at the points after each race but know they have to in order to know their strategy.

Busch said if presented with a choice of going for the win or points with pit strategy, he'd focus on the trophy.

"I would say that we would go for the win and make the decision based off of trying to get that," Busch said.

Logano, a two-time Cup champion, said he looks at the points after every race.

"We're still in position to point in," Logano said. "It's not like you can bail on points yet or go all-in for wins. Either way, I think you still just go for the best finishes possible and probably the best chances to get that — maybe not quite an all or nothing."

Wallace rallied last year from being far back in points early in the season but by the midway points, he had cracked the top-16.

He seemed so comfortable a month ago but went from 39 points above the margin to now six points below in just four races.

"Our speed is there," Wallace said. "[At Kansas last week], we missed it. ... We made our best track one of our worst tracks. We had a lot of discussion about that and that's behind us. The previous two weeks, just caught up in the wrong stuff at the wrong time.

"We've just got to keep it going. This is where we lit the wick last year in this point in the season, so it's time to do it again."

Everyone behind Logano in the standings have to look at their chances of making the playoffs with a win as quite slim: Noah Gragson (83 points behind the cutoff), Austin Cindric (90), Josh Berry (92), Todd Gilliland (105), Michael McDowell (110), John Hunter Nemechek (111), Carson Hocevar (111), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (122), Erik Jones (123), Ryan Preece (130), Corey LaJoie (135), Daniel Hemric (143), Austin Dillon (155), Justin Haley (160), Harrison Burton (178) and Zane Smith (213).

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.