WhatIfSports college football Week 4 predictions: MSU keeps rolling vs. Wisconsin
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 3 in Review
Our predictions were correct 83.6 percent of the time last week, which actually dropped our season-long percentage to 84.7 overall. However, when it came to one of the most-watched games of the evening, the computer called the OSU win over Oklahoma. Also, the Upset of the Week was a push. We had Oregon (+3) and the Ducks lost by three.
Nailed It: Maryland 30 - UCF 24
It took double overtime, but the Terrapins survived a scare from the Knights. McKenzie Milton fumbled for UCF, so Maryland needed to score a point in any way in order to win. Tyrrell Pigrome ended up scoring on a 24-yard run to earn the victory. We predicted Maryland to win 59.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.3-25.1. If you had UCF +11, you won too.
Wide Right: Louisville 63 - Florida State 20
Lamar Jackson produced video game numbers, yet again. This time, it was against the second-ranked team in the nation. Jackson rushed for 146 yards and four TDs in the win. Our computers will likely adjust to Jackson's dominance now that he's succeeded against a formidable opponent. We predicted Florida State to win 60.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.2-26.1.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 4 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 9 Michigan State
Someone will get saddled with their first loss of the season when these two Big Ten teams meet in East Lansing. The Spartans had a very impressive win in South Bend last week (36-28) while the Badgers struggled to defeat Georgia State (23-17). Michigan State has won this matchup in three of the past four years and hasn't lost at home to Wisconsin in the past four contests. The Spartans' dominance continues as our predictions have Michigan State winning 54.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.0-23.7.
No. 12 Georgia at No. 23 Ole Miss
There are eight SEC teams in the AP Top 25 and six of them are listed in this piece for Week 4. The Rebels lost a hard-fought battle with Alabama last week and they need to make sure they are ready for another tough contest. The Bulldogs are still unbeaten, but they need Nick Chubb to get back to his Heisman hopeful self. After rushing for 222 yards in Week 1, Chubb has averaged only 71.5 rushing yards in the past two games. Ole Miss has lost twice already, but they are to high-quality opponents (Florida State and Alabama). They are basically eliminated from SEC Championship contention and there is still plenty of football left to be played. Ole Miss rebounds, according to our computers, and wins 52.7 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.5-26.2.
No. 19 Florida at No. 14 Tennessee
The Vols are taking a survive-and-advance approach to their 2016 football campaign, which is always dangerous. First, they needed overtime to beat Appalachian State at home. Then, the Vols trailed by 14 in the Battle at Bristol before coming back to defeat Virginia Tech. Finally, last week, Tennessee led by only two after three quarters against the MAC's Ohio Bobcats. As for Florida, its defense has feasted on weaker competition. The Gators have allowed a grand total of 14 points after three games. Florida has won 11 straight games against the Vols. Tennessee does most of its damage on the ground with Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. However, Florida's defense is allowing only 42.3 rushing yards per game (second-best in NCAA). In a nail-biter, the simulations suggest Tennessee wins 50.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 23.6-23.0.
No. 17 Arkansas at No. 19 Texas A&M
Jerry's World will be ringing with more cowbell when the Aggies and Razorbacks battle on Saturday night in Arlington. Both teams are 3-0 and looking to represent the SEC West in 2016. Texas A&M is led by Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight. Arkansas has its offense operating through the ground attack of Rawleigh Williams III. RW3 is a Dallas native and will have some extra incentive playing in the same stadium as the Dallas Cowboys. That little motivation could be enough as the projections have Texas A&M winning 50.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.3-26.0.
Week 4 Upset Pick
California (+3.5) over Arizona State
It always seems to be a shootout when Cal is involved. In Australia, the Golden Bears won 51-31 against Hawaii. After that, they lost a high-scoring affair with San Diego State (45-40). Last week, they outlasted Texas, 50-43. This one will likely come down to the final drive, too. Cal's Davis Webb has tallied 13 TDs and only three INTs in the team's air attack. Look for Chad Hansen to have a big impact, as well. He leads the team with 40 receptions, 28 more than the team's second-leading receiver, Melquise Stovall. Cal wins 50.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.1-27.2.
College Football Week 4 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Wagner Seahawks | 5.0 | 8.9 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 95.0 | 40.6 | |
| East Carolina Pirates | 37.6 | 25.2 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 62.4 | 28.9 | |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 49.5 | 26.8 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 50.5 | 28.0 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 53.5 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Cavaliers | 46.5 | 27.0 | |
| Clemson Tigers | 63.9 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 36.1 | 22.6 | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 35.6 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 64.4 | 29.1 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 42.6 | 26.9 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 57.4 | 29.8 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 44.8 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 55.2 | 27.3 | |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 45.5 | 23.7 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 54.5 | 26.0 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 48.5 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 51.5 | 29.5 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 51.0 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49.0 | 29.0 | |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 67.3 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 32.7 | 21.4 | |
| Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | 5.0 | 7.8 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 95.0 | 45.8 | |
| Western Illinois Leathernecks | 5.0 | 7.0 | Box Score |
| @ Northern Illinois Huskies | 95.0 | 46.0 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 41.6 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Western Michigan Broncos | 58.4 | 31.2 | |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 53.5 | 33.4 | Box Score |
| @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | 46.5 | 32.6 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 44.5 | 26.9 | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 58.4 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 41.6 | 27.4 | |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 39.7 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 60.3 | 31.4 | |
| USC Trojans | 44.6 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Utah Utes | 55.4 | 28.3 | |
| California Golden Bears | 50.5 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 49.5 | 27.2 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 57.4 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ UCLA Bruins | 42.6 | 27.0 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 60.4 | 29.7 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 39.6 | 28.3 | |
| Washington Huskies | 63.4 | 33.3 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 36.6 | 29.2 | |
| Delaware State Hornets | 5.0 | 9.0 | Box Score |
| @ Missouri Tigers | 95.0 | 45.0 | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 13.9 | 16.3 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 86.1 | 31.2 | |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 47.3 | 26.2 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 52.7 | 27.5 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 49.2 | 26.0 | Box Score |
| @ Texas A&M Aggies | 50.8 | 26.3 | |
| Florida Gators | 49.5 | 23.0 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 50.5 | 23.6 | |
| LSU Tigers | 51.5 | 27.5 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 48.5 | 26.3 | |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 57.4 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 42.6 | 28.7 | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 45.5 | 27.3 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 54.5 | 30.0 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 75.2 | 33.5 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 24.8 | 26.7 | |
| Missouri State Bears | 5.0 | 8.7 | Box Score |
| @ Kansas State Wildcats | 95.0 | 46.0 | |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 44.6 | 29.4 | Box Score |
| @ Baylor Bears | 55.4 | 30.7 | |
| BYU Cougars | 49.5 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 50.5 | 26.8 | |
| San Jose State Spartans | 49.5 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa State Cyclones | 50.5 | 28.5 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 35.6 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 64.4 | 30.7 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 37.6 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Rice Owls | 62.4 | 33.2 | |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 45.5 | 30.3 | Box Score |
| @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 54.5 | 31.8 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 45.5 | 27.6 | Box Score |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 54.5 | 28.9 | |
| UCF Knights | 53.9 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ FIU Golden Panthers | 46.1 | 28.4 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 55.4 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 44.6 | 29.2 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 60.4 | 27.4 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Atlantic Owls | 39.6 | 25.6 | |
| Louisville Cardinals | 81.2 | 33.0 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 18.8 | 22.5 | |
| Idaho Vandals | 38.8 | 28.7 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 61.2 | 32.3 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 53.5 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Utah State Aggies | 46.5 | 30.4 | |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 63.4 | 32.6 | Box Score |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 36.6 | 27.5 | |
| Nicholls Colonels | 5.0 | 6.9 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 95.0 | 45.3 | |
| Central Arkansas Bears | 5.0 | 8.9 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 95.0 | 46.4 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 31.7 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 68.3 | 32.5 | |
| Houston Cougars | 72.3 | 35.0 | Box Score |
| @ Texas State Bobcats | 27.7 | 26.3 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 24.8 | 26.4 | Box Score |
| @ Cincinnati Bearcats | 75.2 | 34.1 | |
| Charlotte 49ers | 29.7 | 21.4 | Box Score |
| @ Temple Owls | 70.3 | 28.7 | |
| Syracuse Orange | 35.6 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Connecticut Huskies | 64.4 | 25.8 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 41.6 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ Memphis Tigers | 58.4 | 31.3 | |
| Florida State Seminoles | 56.4 | 30.3 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 43.6 | 29.2 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 63.4 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ Tulane Green Wave | 36.6 | 26.4 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 79.2 | 35.1 | Box Score |
| @ SMU Mustangs | 20.8 | 23.3 |
In addition, view our Week 4 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
