Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for September 9, 10, & 11
Editor's note: With fantasy football content ramping up, we will only publish three fantasy baseball DFS posts a week: Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (which will include some weekend picks, too).
Thank you for understanding and I hope you continue to enjoy our content.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming...
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark...
CIN/PIT - 9
PHI/WAS - 9
BOS/TOR - 9
CLE/MIN - 9
2. From the most projected runs to the fewest, the LAD/MIA games has an over/under of only 6.5 runs. Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound for the Dodgers and Jose Fernandez toes the rubber for Miami.
3. Tanner Roark and the Nats are the strongest favorite of the night (-262) as they take on the Phillies. This season, Roark is 3-0 with a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings against Philadelphia.
4. There is rain in the forecast in the matchups between CIN/PIT and MIL/STL tonight.
5. For the BvP audience: Brian Dozier is 11-23 (.478) with seven extra-base hits against Danny Salazar...Jose Bautista is 14-34 (.412) with three home runs against Rick Porcello...Also, Matt Carpenter is 6-13 (.462) with two extra-base hits against Jimmy Nelson.
Must-Start of the day: Francisco Lindor, CLE
He has a .365 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. Also, Lindor is 13-27 (.481) with three doubles in the past week.
Deal of the day: Michael Pineda, NYY
The ERA is sketchy, but Pineda is facing an offense that has struck out 65 times in the past week (sixth-most). Pineda has tallied at least six punch outs in two of his last three performances, too.
Avoid of the day: Chris Owings, ARI
He is 2-22 (.091) with seven strikeouts against Madison Bumgarner.
Stack of the day: Cleveland Indians
Though Tyler Duffey is 2-0 against the Tribe, he has a 4.19 ERA against them this season. Also, Duffey has allowed at least five earned runs in back-to-back starts. Stack the Indians by adding Frankie Lindor, Mike Napoli, and even Tyler Naquin into the mix.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD - Welcome back, Mr. Kershaw. His last start was June 26th. This year, Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and has tallied 72 strikeouts in 59 innings on the road.
Carlos Martinez, STL - He's tallied at least six strikeouts in three of the past four outings and hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in four consecutive starts.
Michael Pineda, NYY - "Deal of the day."
Tanner Roark, WAS - (See "5 Things")
Wilson Ramos, WAS - He has a .351 wOBA against righties this year.
Stephen Vogt, OAK - He has a .316 wOBA against righties this season.
Brandon Moss, STL - He has a .323 ISO against righties this season.
Matt Adams, STL - He has a .222 ISO against righties this year.
Mike Napoli, CLE - He has a .243 ISO against righties in 2016.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC - He is batting .409 with three home runs in the past week.
Daniel Murphy, WAS - He is 10-24 (.417) with two extra-base hits in the past week.
Brian Dozier, MIN - (See "5 Things")
Matt Carpenter, STL - (See "5 Things")
Kris Bryant, CHC - He has a .254 ISO against righties this season.
Alex Bregman, HOU - He is 13-36 (.394) with seven extra-base hits in the past week.
Francisco Lindor, CLE - "Must-start of the day."
Marcus Semien, OAK - He has a .298 wOBA against righties and will bat towards the top of the order for Oakland.
Bryce Harper, WAS - He has a .204 ISO against righties this season.
Justin Upton, DET - He has a .309 wOBA against righties in 2016.
J.D. Martinez, DET - He has a .255 ISO against righties this year.
Jose Bautista, TOR - (See "5 Things")
Denard Span, SF - He has a .330 wOBA against righties this season.
Max Scherzer, WAS - In his last start against the Phillies, Scherzer dominated: 8 IP, 2 ER and 11 Ks.
Rich Hill, LAD - In back-to-back outings with the Dodgers, Hill is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run in 12 innings of work.
Adam Wainwright, STL - He’s faced the Brewers twice this season: 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and has struck out 12 batters in 14 innings of action.
Best BvP matchups:
Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY (OF) - He is 18-31 (.581) with two extra-base hits against Chris Archer.
Stephen Vogt, OAK (C) - He is 11-26 (.423) with three extra-base hits against Felix Hernandez.
Nelson Cruz, SEA (OF) - He is 7-12 (.583) with one home run against Kendall Graveman.
C - Victor Martinez, DET - He has a .197 ISO against righties this season.
1B - Mike Napoli, CLE - He has a .220 ISO against righties.
2B - D.J. LeMahieu, COL - He has a .407 wOBA against lefties this year.
3B - Nolan Arenado, COL - He has a .237 ISO against southpaws this season.
SS - Alcides Escobar, KC - He has a .292 wOBA against righties and gets James Shields.
OF - Coco Crisp, CLE - He is 4-11 (.364) against Hector Santiago with three home runs.
OF - J.D. Martinez, DET - He has a .255 ISO against righties this year.
OF - Carlos Gonzalez, COL - He has a .253 ISO against lefties.
Corey Kluber, CLE - He’s notched at least seven strikeouts in five consecutive outings, including an 11-K performance against the Twins on August 31st.
Seth Lugo, NYM - He’s allowed two earned runs or less in three straight starts for the Mets.
Chris Sale, CWS - He’s punched out at least eight batters in three of the past four starts.
Luke Weaver, STL - He faced the Brew Crew on August 31st: 6 IP, 3 ER, and 10 Ks.
Best BvP matchups:
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (OF) - He is 7-11 (.636) with three extra-base hist against Edwin Jackson.
Freddie Freeman, ATL (1B) - He is 13-27 (.481) with six extra-base hits against Bartolo Colon.
Brandon Phillips, CIN (2B) - He is 10-22 (.455) with two extra-base hits against Ryan Vogelsong
C - Gary Sanchez, NYY - He has a .402 ISO against righties.
1B - Rougned Odor, TEX - He has a .253 ISO against righties this year.
2B - D.J. LeMahieu, COL - He has a .383 wOBA against righties.
3B - Justin Turner, LAD - He has a .260 ISO against righties in 2016.
SS - Corey Seager, LAD - He has a .230 ISO and a .408 wOBA against righties.
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY - He has a .331 wOBA against righties this season
OF - Joc Pederson, LAD - He has a .262 ISO against righties this year.
OF - Jayson Werth, WAS - He has a .300 ISO against lefties in 2016.