National Football League

NFL odds Week 17: Fade the Bengals, Seahawks and more best bets

Updated Dec. 28, 2022 1:53 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

There are two weeks left until the end of the NFL's regular season and the playoff race is shaping into place.

While a few teams are battling for the top of playoff seeding, there are several teams in the 7-8 win range that are still in the hunt and looking for help to make their way into the postseason festivities.

The biggest game on the docket is the Bills-Bengals matchup, which may determine the top seed in the AFC.

Also included are my New York Jets, who are getting Mike White back and find themselves as one of my favorite picks of the week again.

So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 17 (with odds via FOX Bet):

Bills at Bengals (8:30 p.m. ET, Monday, ESPN)

The Bengals have quietly been the best team in the league the last seven weeks, going 7-0 in that stretch with wins over six teams that were/are in the playoff hunt (except Cleveland).

Last week’s win over New England — after grabbing a 22-0 lead — was fortuitous, given the Patriots had first and goal at the 5-yard line with less than two minutes to go before fumbling. Cincinnati had three turnovers to make it a game, and the Bengals special teams were awful with two missed extra points and a missed FG.

Buffalo hasn’t been impressive lately, narrowly beating Miami on a late field goal, and Josh Allen remains in a funk after throwing two bad interceptions against Chicago. The Bills are just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games, but they know this game is to retain home field in the playoffs and not have to go to Arrowhead for the third straight year.

The Bengals have covered a staggering 12 of 13, and they’re one point underdogs at home. But note that right tackle La'el Collins has been lost for the season due to an ACL injury, and his backup, Hakeem Adeniji struggled in the second half against the Patriots and faces Greg Rousseau (seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss).

The public is going to ride with the Bengals, but is this where the glorious run ends?

PICK: Bills (-1 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 point

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Jets at Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, FOX)

Thanks to the Patriots and Dolphins losing in Week 16, the Jets are once again in great shape to sneak into the playoffs.

The task is reasonable, too: Win this game, and then win at Miami, and all they need is Buffalo to defeat New England in the final week of the season and the Jets are in.

Getting Mike White back from his rib injury instantly sent bettors to the window backing the Jets on the road. The Jets were 6-3 after their win against Buffalo but have cratered since, losing five of six. But given that Zach Wilson started three of those losses, you can see why the Jets are favored.

With White at the helm, the Jets outgained the Vikings by 200 yards and nearly won on the road; they covered the spread in Buffalo the following week, the game in which White was injured.

Seattle’s biggest problem is the Tyler Lockett injury. He’s their best possession receiver, and without him, Geno Smith looked lost for large stretches of the KC game. If you put Sauce Gardner on DK Metcalf, you wonder what Geno does offensively.

PICK: Jets (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

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Panthers at Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, FOX)

Is Tampa Bay any good?

The Bucs have gone 4-6 in their last 10, and they needed fourth quarter comebacks to beat bottom-feeders in three of those wins — Rams, Cardinals, Saints.

This isn’t about Tampa being uninterested — they’re just not a very good offense until they have to hustle and get in the two-minute drill. Why not just run it the entire game?

The last time these two teams met, everyone lost their shirt (and likely lost in Survivor) — the Panthers buried the Bucs 21-3 as 13 point home underdogs. You can play up the revenge angle all you want, but this Carolina team is very different with Sam Darnold at QB and Steve Wilks as head coach. In the last meeting, it was PJ Walker and Matt Rhule, respectively.

The Panthers have been surging, going 7-1 ATS the last eight games they were underdogs. And now they have an offense, as evidenced by 570 yards on the ground against Detroit.

Before you bet Tampa, remember that Tristan Wirfs left the game Sunday night when he aggravated his injury and another tackle, Josh Wells, was carted off and is done for the season. Tampa’s OL is a mash unit. Maybe Donovan Smith returns, but they’ll need him against a strong Panthers OL.

PICK: 1st half Under 19.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.