National Football League

NFC North grades: How have Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings fared in 2022?

Updated Nov. 3, 2022 7:08 p.m. ET

Who had the NFC North being fun on their 2022 bingo card? More specifically, who predicted the Minnesota Vikings holding the strongest division lead of any team in the league? That's exactly what's happening in this topsy-turvy season, which is just par for the course.

But what does that actually look like for each team in the division? Let's take a closer look as I evaluate how the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are doing this season. These grades are built upon the baseline of preseason expectations.

Chicago Bears

The Bears made for a tricky evaluation, given that they've honestly surpassed expectations in what was supposed to be a total rebuilding year. Sure, they have a 3-5 record, but they are trending upward, even after trading away both of their original defensive captains. Quarterback Justin Fields had the highest passer rating of his career last Sunday against the Cowboys and the offense itself has evolved to play to his strengths over the last couple weeks. Add a legitimate weapon like wide receiver Chase Claypool, whom the team traded for on Tuesday, and Chicago could have a productive offense on its hands.

And while it was no secret even going into this season the Bears' strength would be their ground game, I don't know that people had them leading the league in rushing offense. They are leaning into the new league trend of a run-first offense with a mobile quarterback. They essentially have three viable running backs now that Fields has seen an uptick in his designed runs. Between him, David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, Chicago is averaging a league-best 188.7 rushing yards per game.

The defense will undoubtedly take a step back without Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, but they have a solid nucleus of young players, especially with the way rookies Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon are playing. This is a defense in need of some pieces, but they aren't that far away and the future looks bright — especially with all that cap space and draft capital coming up in 2023.

And as a bonus, Chicago may have one of the best special-teams units in the league, as well. Not only has kicker Cairo Santos yet to miss a field goal this season, but their coverage teams are also doing well, too. According to Football Outsiders, they rank third in special-teams DVOA.

Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

This is going to be a little harsh, but when you get my hopes up like the Lions and maybe Hard Knocks did prior to the season and don't deliver, I'm a little salty. I wanted it for Detroit, too. The team has a great fan base that has stuck with them year in and year out. Head coach Dan Campbell is easy to root for. He's easy to play for, too. But for as feel-good as the environment within the building seems to be, it's nothing without results.

Despite their record, Detroit also started the season hot on offense. They were averaging 35 points per game in the first quarter of the season, and it seemed that if the defense could just marginally improve, the Lions could string together some wins. Then, they ran into the New England Patriots and suffered a 29-0 shutout. And while their defense has marginally improved, despite firing their defensive backs coach just last week, now their offense still can't keep up. They traded away tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was the team leader in receiving yards, which may just signify that at 1-6, the Lions recognize that their season is, once again, over early.

Grade: D

Green Bay Packers

Speaking of expectations, the Packers have failed terribly to live up to those placed on them prior to the season. With the departure of Davante Adams, who hogged a bigger percentage of the target share for the Packers than any other player for their team in the league in 2021, I think most thought the offense would regress — but not to this degree. Green Bay still has zero identity, even with 2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers still under center fresh off a brand-new contract.

The Packers are sitting at 3-5 on the season, a full three games back from the Minnesota Vikings in a division they have owned for the better part of the last decade. Despite being stocked with first-round picks, the defense has also failed to live up to expectations — especially against the run. They rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (141.3) and have allowed conversions on half of all fourth downs attempted against them. They're also tied for 23rd in scoring defense.

It's not all bad, though. They rank in the top 10 in total defense (eighth) thanks to giving up the second-fewest passing yards per game this season. They're also great on third down, contrary to their performance on fourth down, allowing conversions on just 29.89% of attempts. That's good for the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

There seems to still be hope internally that the Packers can turn things around. They keep pointing to 2016, when Green Bay started the season 4-6 and ended up in the conference championship, as precedent for what could happen this season. Last Sunday night against Buffalo, though it was a loss, there was a semblance of offensive rhythm at long last. If they can build on that starting against the Lions this coming Sunday, they could make their 2016 dreams come true, after all. But until then…

Grade: C-

Minnesota Vikings

I would say the Vikings were a pleasant surprise, but coming from a girl who picked them to go to the Super Bowl this season, how can I say their 6-1 start wasn't expected? I think what makes this so impressive is that Minnesota went through an overhaul this offseason. They brought in a new general manager and head coach and the transition has been relatively seamless. Only the New York Giants can really say the same this year.

That's not to say there haven't been bumps in the road, either, and perhaps that's what's even more encouraging. The Vikings are 5-0 in one-score games this season after being 6-8 last year in such games. They are finding ways to win and are the division's most complete team while still figuring themselves out.

They are top-10 in pass defense, sack rate and interception rate, creating turnovers for their offense, which takes care of the football. That's resulted in them being tied for second in turnover margin at +6. That could be the single most win-indicative stat that we have, especially given that Minnesota is second to only Philadelphia, who is still undefeated.

The Vikings also have a strong hold on the NFC North, a full three games up from the Packers. At this point in the season they have a 96% chance to make the playoffs and a 94% chance to win the division, per FiveThirtyEight. Want to take that even further? As of Week 9, they have a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Well done, Vikings.

Grade: B+