National Football League

Jets QB Zach Wilson needs to cease and desist his Patrick Mahomes impression

Updated Nov. 2, 2022 3:35 p.m. ET

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Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

Zach Wilson wants so badly to be Patrick Mahomes, an escape artist with a generational knack for making throws so difficult that coaches instruct quarterbacks not to try them. Wilson is showing why coaches will continue to teach QBs not to try throws like the ones Mahomes routinely makes.

Wilson just isn't that guy. And that's fine. We've seen only four or five quarterbacks in the history of the sport with Mahomes' rare blend of arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, smarts and moxie. 

But Wilson doesn't seem to know he's not Mahomes. That's one of Wilson's biggest problems.

The second-year Jets QB isn't making good decisions, in part due to struggles on his offensive line but mostly due to his vibes-before-reads approach. He's not seeing the defense before or after the snap. He's getting overly creative and struggling to operate within his system.

Wilson has more time to throw than any other quarterback in the NFL — 3.26 seconds per Next Gen Stats. That's in part because he has done a nice job escaping the pass rush. And still, his completion percentage (54.9%) is falling woefully short of his expected completion percentage (62.6%). That differential (minus-7.6%) is second-worst behind that of Baker Mayfield (minus-11.7%), whom the Panthers benched. 

Wilson has three touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown, one receiving touchdown and five interceptions over five games.

He has a habit of buying himself time to avoid the pass rush. It's just that his b-button spin moves and his Euro-step jukes are not leading to big plays. Wilson's improvisation has mostly looked a lot like this play from Week 7 (below), where he couldn't see the two open receivers because the pass-rush got home. (I might argue, however, that he needs to know he has to get the ball out quickly because the Broncos are bringing five rushers.) Either way, Wilson breaks three tackles to throw the ball away. It's a lot of flash (and risk of taking a big loss or a fumble) without accomplishing much. 

And that's harmless right?

Here's another third down from Week 7 when Wilson clearly wanted to make a play — so badly that he threw across his body, off his back foot, over the teeth of the defense. High school coaches everywhere were fending off heart attacks. 

The ball fell incomplete. So that's pretty much harmless, right?

Let's go back even further. On this play against the Packers defense, Wilson rolled out to his left and didn't have anyone open. Time to throw it away, like he's done on occasion. 

But Wilson wants to be Mahomes. We know this.

So Wilson obviously took this bad situation as a great opportunity to make use of a no-look pass. With the quarterback looking downfield at receiver Elijah Moore, Wilson threw for receiver Garrett Wilson. The problem with no-look passes is that they — obviously — lead to inaccuracy. Zach Wilson hit Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander in the hands, rather than the intended target. And it was nearly an interception. 

Ultimately, another incompletion. Still harmless! Maybe?

Wilson hasn't just struggled with bad decision-making. He has also had issues with basic reads and basic throws. On the opening drive against the Broncos, Wilson failed to hit Corey Davis on a third-and-10. Davis didn't quite create the desired separation, which meant Wilson had to place the ball in the right spot. But it's a throw that an NFL quarterback should make to convert a third down. Instead, Wilson fired a few feet over Davis' head.

Here's an example of Wilson throwing to the wrong place because of processing problems. ESPN's Dan Orlovsky broke down what Wilson missed — or didn't even bother to see. Wilson had an opportunity to hit a receiver downfield (running a slant on the right side of the offensive formation), which was his read given the defense. Instead, Wilson misfired to his checkdown, who shouldn't have been the intended target.

Still harmless?!

Against the Patriots last Sunday — Wilson's worst performance of the season — the young quarterback experienced a full-on meltdown. All these mistakes came to roost. He did what he has been doing for weeks: scrambling in hopes of creating a big play. But he also did what has felt inevitable for weeks: get overly aggressive and turn the football over.

"Every time I get out of the pocket, it just gets frustrating to just throw the ball away. That's what I've done the last four weeks to put us in a good position, to not turn the ball over, and for us to win," Wilson said of his interceptions postgame on Sunday. "And so, I need to be able to keep doing that when something's not there. It gets old getting out and not seeing anything there."

It might be getting old for Wilson's scrambles to be unproductive. But it will definitely get old if he's throwing three interceptions per game like he did against the Patriots. 

In his previous starts, he let his team win the game for him. That's how the Jets have had success — by putting Wilson in the sidecar. The defense drives this team with help from the rushing attack. Wilson did too much against the Patriots and that sunk the Jets.

"For him, it's just a simple reminder that it's OK to be bored, and just to remember that you have a bunch of guys in that locker room that are pretty good at football, too, and they got your back," Jets coach Robert Saleh said on Monday.

This isn't a moratorium on Wilson's career. Though, I will admit that I don't have faith he will develop into a starting-caliber quarterback. But I've been wrong before. We've seen gifted passers like Josh Allen take big strides. (It's just that we saw him do it progressively every season. Wilson looks just as bad now as during his rookie year.) We've seen system quarterbacks land in the right place at the right time, which seems to be happening for Tua Tagovailoa, who's enjoying a breakout season in his third year in the NFL. (It's just that Wilson is not a system QB. He's a gunslinger.) 

There's always the possibility that big developmental steps are on the way for Wilson, a BYU product whom draft analysts pegged as a high-upside, developmental project. The problem is that we haven't seen Wilson take many steps yet. He's still inaccurate. He's still misreading (or not reading) the defense. And he has the propensity to slip into a rut of bad decision-making.

To create even more tension, the Jets are ahead of schedule as a rebuilding organization while Wilson is falling behind in his development. 

Entering this season, New York looked to be building to compete in 2023, when Wilson would enter his third season. But the 5-3 Jets are competitive right now. And Wilson is holding them back. It's a tough spot for the Jets, who need Wilson — at the very least — to accept his role in the sidecar. They can't let his growing pains nosedive their season. And if he doesn't get any better, it's easy to imagine the Jets being in the market for a new quarterback in 2023.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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Zach Wilson

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Henry McKenna