Washington Commanders

Despite tie vs. Giants, Taylor Heinicke, Commanders still control their destiny

Updated Dec. 5, 2022 9:28 p.m. ET

Just like everybody else in the Meadowlands on Sunday, Ron Rivera wasn't sure what to do after the Commanders and Giants finished in a 20-20 tie. He had to stand in front of his team in the locker room and say something. He didn't know what.

"I wasn't sure how to address [them]," said the Washington coach with a chuckle after the game. "We came up here and we expected to win, and we didn't. We tied. It doesn't hurt us. It doesn't help us."

He's mostly right about that last part. Even though the loss dropped the Commanders (7-5-1) percentage points out of the final NFC playoff spot, they're still in the thick of a three-team race for the final two wild-card positions. And they will almost certainly be tied with the Giants (7-4-1) when they return from their bye week, since the Giants play the Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) on Sunday afternoon.

That means the Commanders' destiny will be in their own hands.

Their situation wouldn't have been much different had they won Sunday. They'd still have to beat the Giants when they face them in two weeks in Washington. And it's still going to be a wild, four-game sprint to the finish no matter what.

The Commanders are also still a red-hot team (mostly), with just one loss in their past eight games (6-1-1). And there's still plenty of magic in quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns and engineered a game-tying drive in the final minutes of regulation Sunday, which prompted defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to say he's "got the biggest nuts I've ever seen."

Breaking down Sunday's 20-20 tie

FOX Sports' Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma break down the wacky 20-20 tie between the Commanders and the Giants on Sunday.

In other words, especially after starting the season 1-4, things are pretty good heading into the bye in D.C. Here's why they're in good shape to make the playoffs for the first time in two years, and to end up with a winning record for the first time since 2016:

Heinicke has … something

Watching the 29-year-old Heinicke should come with a warning label. He seems to spend half the time sailing passes over the heads of his receivers into near-interceptions, like he did too many times against the Giants. Then he turns around and does what he did at the end of regulation —going 6-for-8 for 90 yards, marching the Commanders those 90 yards in 1:58 and ending it with a 28-yard touchdown pass to Jahan Dotson.

Just when you think you're out, he pulls you back in.

"That's kind of him," Rivera said. "He's going to take what's in front of him, then he's going to take a shot here. Then he's going to try to make something happen, which he did. Because that's who he is."

Whatever. Clearly it works. His teammates swear by him. They have rallied behind him in ways they never even thought of rallying behind Carson Wentz. Heinicke's stats as a starter are underwhelming: a completion percentage of 61.8, 1,444 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions in seven games. But there's only one stat that matters:

With Heinicke under center, the Commanders are 5-1-1.

The defensive line is fierce … and about to get better

The Giants were wary of facing a Washington front with Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen in the middle, and with good reason. There might not be a better DT tandem in the NFL right now. They are a devastating run-stuffing duo. And they're pretty good at getting pressure too, combining for 16 sacks on the season, including the three sacks they had Sunday.

It's the run defense that stands out, though. The Giants ran for 134 yards, but 49 of those came on "scrambles" where Daniel Jones looked like he was forced to run. Saquon Barkley had 63 yards, but 32 of those came on four carries in the two-minute drill at the end of the first half. He had 31 yards on his other 14 carries and just three yards on seven carries after halftime.

Defensive end Montez Sweat, who has seven sacks, is a strong run-stopper, too. That line powers a defense that has 34 sacks, good for ninth in the NFL. The Commanders rank eighth in the league, giving up 110.4 rushing yards per game. And that drops to 92.1 yards per game over their past seven.

And oh, by the way, defensive end Chase Young should make his debut in two weeks, reuniting Washington's four-first-rounder front.

Brian Robinson is rolling

When the Commanders offense was at its best Sunday, the ball was in rookie running back Brian Robinson's hands. He had 96 yards on 21 carries, plus another two catches for 15 yards. When he got knocked back for a three-yard loss in overtime, it was his first run for negative yardage in two weeks.

Basically, he's been like a freight train. He leads the Commanders with 563 rushing yards despite missing the first four games after being shot in the leg while being robbed in late August. He has 201 yards in the past two games. He has averaged 85.5 over the past four. It's not a coincidence Washington is 6-2-1 since he returned and joined Antonio Gibson (515 rushing yards) in the backfield.

"We kind of showed our hand during the preseason of what we wanted to do and how we wanted to be on offense," Rivera said. "Using that two-back tandem, I really do think that being able to commit to the run the way we have has really helped us. I think that's a real big part of it."

"Riverboat Ron" has steadied the ship

At some point, Rivera, 60, is going to have to enter the "Coach of the Year" conversation, because no one else has had to deal with the nonsense, craziness and situations he has. And it's obviously far more than the on-the-field stuff, where he lost his starting quarterback in Week 5 and saw most of his team decimated by injuries early.

The big stuff has been off the field. Robinson's getting shot was a frightening thing that hugely affected his team. And there is of course always the specter of owner Dan Snyder and the investigations and controversies swirling around him, not to mention the PR gaffes — like when a Snyder spokesman brought up the Robinson shooting as a way to distract from the seriousness of some of the accusations against the owner.

All of that could have buried most teams. Certainly, that's what the world expected when the Commanders started 1-4. But Rivera continued to project calm and keep his players focused. And for the past eight weeks, his steady presence and stoic demeanor have clearly worked.

The schedule is their friend

The race for the final two wild-card spots is between the Commanders, Giants and the Seattle Seahawks (7-5). Ten wins is probably good enough to get in. Nine should do it with some tie-breaker help. That makes the Commanders' next game, against the Giants, their Game of the Year.

Assuming the Giants don't beat the Eagles next Sunday — a seemingly safe assumption — New York and Washington will have identical records (7-5-1) when they meet Dec. 18 in Washington. The winner not only gets a one-game advantage, but also wins the tie-breaker based on head-to-head record (making it effectively a two-game cushion with three to play).

So if the Commanders win, they probably will need only one more win in their last three games, in which they face the 49ers, who just lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season, the struggling Browns and the Cowboys in Week 17 when they might be able to rest their starters. If the Commanders lose to the Giants, their path is tougher, but remember: The Giants still have to play the Eagles twice and at Minnesota — three games in their last five against the top two teams in the NFC.

The Seahawks, with four games at home, probably have the easiest remaining schedule. But the Commanders shouldn't worry about them. Maybe they can't actually clinch a playoff spot by beating the Giants at FedEx Field in two weeks. But if they win that game, it's going to be really hard to keep them out.

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Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.