Wings for days: The four-out revolution hits Orlando
By Jonathan Tjarks
When it comes to gambling on the NBA, one surefire way of making money is finding a sleeper team very early in the season and riding them until public perception catches up. There are so many teams, so many games and so much action occurring on a nightly basis that it is almost impossible to stay on top of everything, especially if you are trying to beat the (very) smart money that pours into the league. Rolling with a sleeper and counting on them to be better than the spread in almost every match-up is a good way to make up the difference. Through the first week of the season, the Orlando Magic have the look of that type of team.
You can't really see it in their record because they have had one of the toughest early schedules in the NBA. The Magic have played five playoff teams from last season, three of them on the road, and they have been in every game until the very end. When you break down what they have been doing against the spread, you can see the outline of a young team on the rise.
Their big personnel change this season is joining the four-out revolution, sliding Tobias Harris from SF to PF and starting four perimeter-oriented players around Nik Vucevic. While they started a stretch PF in Channing Frye for most of last season, moving Harris to that spot maintains their floor spacing while adding someone who can attack a close-out, take the ball to the rim and create a shot and push the ball in transition. The Magic now start four guys who can start the break and get out and run and they are playing faster than ever, adding five possessions going from 16th in the league in pace to 11th and adding five possessions a game.
When they are in the halfcourt, everyone plays in a ton of space and the ball flies around the floor. There's more room for Vucevic to operate in the post, more room for Payton and Oladipo to drive to the basket and more room for Harris to look for his own shot. The biggest beneficiary has been Evan Fournier as they now have another spot on the floor for a wing and he has gone from lightly-used reserve under Jacque Vaughn to featured option under Scott Skiles.
Fournier was not able to come to terms on an extension of his rookie contract with the Magic and he looks like he could make himself a lot of money now that they have decided to play small full-time. At 6'7" 205, he's a pure shooter with good size for a wing player and a versatile offensive game. He can shoot coming off screens or off the dribble, take the ball to the rim and finish in traffic and create shots for other people off the bounce. He's quickly becoming one of their most reliable offensive players and he is averaging 18.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists a game on 46% shooting, including a 30-point effort against the Pelicans.
Like a lot of combo forwards in the modern NBA, Harris is more dangerous on offense as a PF. He's a match-up nightmare at 6'9" 235, with the speed to get around more traditional big men on the perimeter and the size to score over the top of smaller defenders closer to the basket. The concern for any of those types of players when they move down a spot in the line-up is their rebounding and he is grabbing boards at a much higher level as a PF - going from 6 to 9 a game - while still pouring in buckets - 16.3 points on 43.1 percent shooting.
The centerpiece of their offense is still Nik Vucevic, one of the deadliest scorers from the center position in the league. At 7'0" and 260, he's got incredible touch and feel for the game at his size and he's almost automatic when he has established deep post position. He can score over either shoulder and step out and knock down a mid-range jumper and he has to be doubled when he's going up against a smaller defender or a bigger defender who lacks foot speed. Maybe the most impressive part of his game is the improvement in his block rates, which have gone from 0.8 a game last season to 2.8 this season.
Where you have to give a lot of credit to Skiles and the coaching staff is their improvement defensively. Normally, the idea is that playing smaller will open up their floor and improve your offense while coming at the cost of your halfcourt defense and ability to clean the glass. However, even though they play almost exclusively four-out basketball over the course of the game, their defensive rating has skyrocketed from 24th in the league to 10th. The mark of a young team ready to take the next step is when everyone buys in on the defensive end of the floor. If Orlando can maintain this level of defense over the course of the season, they have a real chance at sneaking into the playoff picture out East.
Most of the publicity surrounding this team revolves around the two lottery picks in the backcourt - Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton - but they have been more up-and-down this season than their less heralded frontcourt mates. Oladipo is contributing in a lot of different areas of the game and he has a phenomenal assist-to-turnover ratio (5.0 to 2.0) for a guy who struggled with decision-making early in his career but he still takes way too many difficult shots and his shooting percentages - 35.6% from the field, 25.9% from 3 - are really holding the team back when you consider he takes 17 shots a game. And while Payton's outside shooting has improved, other teams don't respect him from the perimeter which impedes their spacing and forces him to hold the ball.
When you start digging into Orlando's advanced statistics, maybe the most remarkable number is how much better they play with CJ Watson running point. Even though his individual numbers don't reflect it, it's night and day when Watson is in. Their offensive rating is 4 points better with Watson on the floor, their defensive rating is 12 points better and their five most effective two-man combinations in terms of net rating all feature him. He gives them another shooter to spread the floor and a calming veteran presence next to so many young guys.
Their deep wellspring of young talent off the bench certainly helps, as they bring in two Top 5 picks - Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja - and an excellent defensive big man in Dewayne Dedmon. Orlando can pressure you over the full 48 minutes, mixing and matching their players in an almost infinite combination of line-ups and throwing waves of length, skill and athleticism at the other team. Gordon and Hezonja have as much individual talent as any of the young guys in their core and they have to fight for minutes on a nightly basis.
In a league becoming more wing-oriented by the season, Orlando has wings for days. They have five between 6'4" and 6'9" - Oladipo, Fournier, Harris, Gordon and Hezonja - and they can all match up with multiple positions, look for their own shot and move the ball. They can all switch screen and rolls and they all have the potential to be good two-way players. Maybe the most encouraging thing is how young everyone is - Vucevic is 25, Oladipo, Fournier and Harris are 23, Payton is 21 and Gordon and Hezonja are 20. This is the way you want to build a team in the modern NBA.
They are a young team and they are going to make a lot of the mistakes you associate with a young team so they may need one more season to figure out the right combinations of players and how to close out games. At the same time, once their schedule evens out they will have a chance to move quickly up the standings out East. I don't gamble anymore but I'd feel pretty comfortable putting money on Orlando if I did.
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