National Basketball Association

Who Will Land No. 1?

Updated Aug. 20, 2020 4:34 p.m. ET

On Thursday, one NBA franchise will have a chance to alter its fortunes into the future, as the NBA Draft Lottery is set for tonight in Chicago, Illinois.

It will air on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET, prior to the Los Angeles Lakers' Game 2 matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers, and as is custom, the 14 NBA franchises that did not qualify for the playoffs will see where they land in the lottery.

There are a few familiar franchises at the top of the odds chart, all with a chance to land the No. 1 pick.

Dating back to 2010, the Cleveland Cavaliers (14% chance at the No. 1 pick) have had seven lottery picks, including the No. 1 pick in 2011, 2013 and 2014, when they selected Kyrie Irving, Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins, respectively.

Last season, the Cavs selected Vanderbilt's Darius Garland with the No. 5 pick, and their odds of securing the top pick in 2020 are tied for the best odds in the league.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (14%) have had eight lottery picks since 2010, including the No. 1 pick in 2015, when they selected Karl Anthony-Towns.

Of those eight lottery picks, only one – Towns – still plays in Minnesota. Trey Burke (No. 9, 2013 Draft), Zach Lavine (No. 13, 2014 Draft), Kris Dunn (No. 5, 2016 Draft), Lauri Markkanen (No. 7, 2017 Draft) and Cameron Johnson (No. 11, 2019 Draft) are all with different franchises.

The Atlanta Hawks (12.5%) have only had three lottery picks in the past decade. In 2018, Atlanta selected Luka Doncic with the third pick, but traded him to Dallas for Trae Young, the No. 5 pick.

Last season, Atlanta selected Jaxson Hayes with the No. 8 pick and Cam Reddish at No. 10.

The Detroit Pistons (10.5%) have had six lottery picks since 2010, but haven't selected in the top 14 since 2017, when they selected Duke's Luke Kennard at No. 12.

But there is some intrigue at the top of the odds chart this season in the form of the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors (14%) have been the premiere NBA franchise dating back to 2015, making five straight trips to the NBA Finals and winning three NBA titles.

But in last year's NBA Finals, Kevin Durant tore his Achilles and Klay Thompson tore his ACL. Then, during the offseason, Durant bolted for Brooklyn, and earlier this season, Steph Curry broke his hand, meaning Golden State was without three superstars – in one way or another – for the majority of the season.

With that, the Warriors had the worst record in the league before play was halted in March due to the coronavirus.

However, Curry returned at the end of the season, and Thompson will presumably be ready to play in 2021, meaning the Warriors' core will be healthy and Golden State will potentially add the No. 1 pick – or at least a top 5 pick – to the fold.

Outside of 2019, the Draft Lottery has been predictable in recent years.

From 2015-2018, the team with the worst record in the NBA secured the No. 1 pick each year. All had a 25% chance to land the pick.

However, last year, the team with the 7th worst record in the NBA – the New Orleans Pelicans – landed the top pick despite having only a 6% chance at earning it.

You know who they selected.

We'll see which NBA franchise will have a chance to change its trajectory come this evening, and be sure to check back for Jason McIntyre's latest NBA Mock Draft after Thursday's Draft Lottery!