Trail Blazers Trade Target: Boogie Wonderland Meets Portland
Nov 11, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) shoots a three-point shot over Portland Trail Blazers forward Mason Plumlee (24) in overtime at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
The shaky relationship between DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins and the Sacramento Kings has not improved. Can Portland take advantage?
Trade rumors are consistently flying around from every media source and the Kings do not seem to view him as untouchable. This is where General Manager Neil Olshey and the Blazers come into play. Every Portland fan will probably shut down any trade for Cousins immediately due to his unstable behavior, but opportunities to acquire an all-NBA caliber big man are few and far between. The Blazers have come out of the gate slow (12-11) while ranking dead last in defense (allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions) and 25th in rebounding percentage.
This sort of production defensively and on the glass displays the Blazers inability to have a staple to rely on, and they are not managing possessions well enough to be a strong playoff team. They require a needle-moving asset in order to make a breakthrough to compete with the likes of the Warriors, Clippers and the Spurs.
Blazers fans, meet Boogie.
Portland Trail Blazers forward Mason Plumlee (24) fouls Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15)
The Cousins Contribution
Cousins is having another dominant statistical year averaging 28.7ppg, 10.4rpg, 3.2apg while chipping in defensively with one swat a game. Solely viewing from a talent perspective, Boogie is a top-5 big man in the league without question. He is leading all big men in real plus-minus (5.45) and ranks second in real plus-minus win contributions (3.68). Cousins’ ability to finish over both shoulders, be the pick and roll man, shoot (out to 24 feet), and deliver in transition makes him a unique animal in the ‘smaller’ NBA. Cousins is currently 5th in the league in points per post up possession at 0.94. It would provide the Blazers with a reliable go to scoring option similar to what they had with LaMarcus Aldridge.
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He is also scoring 1.06 points per possession as the pick and roll man and 1.03 points per spot up possession which would rise considerably when Boogie is integrated within Terry Stotts’ flow offense. Stotts is known to move his bigs around in various spots such as: on and off ball screeners, high and low posts, side actions as well as maintaining a healthy diet of isolations (see: Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki).
Contrary to league-wide opinion, Cousins is actually no slouch defensively.
The advanced analytics have him as a very solid rim protector. When Cousins is contesting a shot within 6 feet of the rim, opponents are only making 51.9% of their looks. To put this in comparison, Rudy Gobert is at 49.7% and league average is at 60%. This level of rim protection puts him above Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis and it would suit perfectly to Stotts’ conservative pick and roll defensive scheme. The bigs are required to ‘drop down’ in order to protect the rim while the guards fight over the screens, exposing the offensive team to the (lower percentage) mid range shot.
Using the ‘eye-test’, by no means does Cousins always look interested and in his defensive stance (to combat driving guards), but a change of environment could spark new life in the Boogie. The Kings have been known as a dysfunctional franchise where the pieces don’t fit, but a stable team like the Blazers, who have strong chemistry from player 1 to 15 may be what he needs.
Addressing the Concerns
Olshey has long had a keen eye for talent while also understanding that a team is built from having a strong culture and chemistry. He brought sports psychologists at draft workouts in order to cultivate good personalities on the roster. It’s one of the reasons why Portland overachieved last season. The combination of chemistry and internal development. Although this may seem like where Cousins could be contradictory, he has been known to be a ‘servant leader’ off the court.
Under the tutelage of John Calipari at the University of Kentucky, he was taught how to be a genuine person off the court. Cousins has a charity for youths while also frequently giving back to his loved ones. He has been stuck in a toxic situation where the Kings franchise have done him no favors. The term ‘cancer’ has often been associated with Cousins, but there may not be any substance to that after all.
A move such as this would require all the major pillars of the organization to be hands on deck. This starts from the top with owner Paul Allen which trickles down to Olshey, Stotts and then franchise face and leader, Damian Lillard. There are few teams around the league that would be suitable to absorb a potential risk like Cousins, while also having the culture to take him in. The Trail Blazers could certainly fit this bill as they (finally) have the upper management stability to take advantage of a situation that could well make them a matchup nightmare with two top 15 players.
Jan 4, 2014; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) holds onto a rebound against the Charlotte Bobcats in the first quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Olshey’s Predicament
Saying farewell to CJ McCollum.
I know. He just penned a 4 year $106 million extension, but hear me out.
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In order to acquire an all-star such as Cousins, Kings GM Vlade Divac will not let him go for 40 cents on the dollar. Cousins’ contract expires after next season (2017-18) so he will still have value on the open market where other teams will be driving up his price. This brings me to the point that the Blazers will have to part with McCollum to make this happen. The leagues 2015-16 Most Improved Player has risen as a star since the departure of Aldridge and has relished the role as backcourt mate, and second fiddle to Damian Lillard.
However, this does not come without any drawbacks. Lillard and McCollum form one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA, if not the worst. They are letting through 110.1 points per 100 possessions when they are both on the court together. This would rank the Blazers last as a team. Defense has long been viewed as the staple of a championships team. Only two teams in the past 20 years have won an NBA championship without a top 10 defence.
“Defenses travel well, offenses may not”.
The addition of Boogie may not be a game changer on defense like what Hassan Whiteside or Gobert would be, but it would certainly improve the Blazer perimeter defense at the point of attack with Allen Crabbe or Evan Turner slotting in to start at the 2. This would answer any early season concerns about how sustainable an undersized backcourt is, instead they are balancing the themselves inside and out with the Cousins-Lillard dynamo.
Dec 27, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum (3) steals the ball from Sacramento Kings forward DeMarcus Cousins (15) during the second quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
A Potential Package
In order to persuade Divac, a combination of Turner, Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Noah Vonleh, Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, Shabazz Napier, Davis, Plumlee and first round draft pick(s) is a must. The Blazers could be able to convince the Kings to part with Cousins in a deal such as:
Blazers receive: DeMarcus Cousins
Kings receive: CJ McCollum, Shabazz Napier, Blazers 2017 first round pick (unprotected), Nets 2018 second round pick
Nets receive: Meyers Leonard, Ben McLemore, Pat Connaughton
Sacramento are the recipients of a perennial all-star in McCollum, a prospect handler in Napier, as well as two draft picks to restock the cupboard. The Kings would be swiping the slate clean in the post-Cousins era with two pieces to go with Willie Cauley-Stein and coach Dave Joerger. The expectation to receive anything more than this would be a stretch with Cousins only having one year left on his deal, while CJ has four.
The Nets are present to absorb excess salary and gain talent for a second round pick. Leonard and Ben McLemore add more shooters to their lineup while the latter presents himself as a low risk flyer. They have no reason to be ‘tanking’ as they do no own their next two first round picks, so this move would improve them. This deal can only occur on January 14th (or later) as Leonard’s trade restriction expires then.
(Note: Since McCollum has a ‘poison pill contract’, this requires his outgoing salary from the Blazers to be his current value of $3 million, whereas the incoming value that the Kings absorb will be $21.8 million. This figure represents the average value of his entire contract and this poison pill restriction will expire when his extension kicks in next season.)
On the other hand, Portland would be able to fully utilize Turner as the backup handler while also just generally having him on the ball more. It would also promote Vonleh and Layman to advanced roles where they have shown glimpses of potential to do so. This saves Paul Allen around $19 million in the luxury tax bill next season, while also receiving the best player in the trade. The Blazers would then have 3 roster spots vacant where they can bring in guys at the veterans minimum.
Nov 11, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) reacts after scoring a basket over Portland Trail Blazers forward Meyers Leonard (11) in the second half at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
Portland’s Post Trade Outlook
Part of this trade would be attaining Cousins’ full bird rights where they will be in the process from day one to convince him to re-sign. The risk would be that if Cousins decides to walk after next season, the Blazers will have let McCollum go for essentially a one and a half year rental. The Blazers would then play out the season with a 9 man rotation of Cousins, Aminu, Harkless, Crabbe, Lillard as starters while Davis, Vonleh, Jake Layman and Turner come off the bench. Plumlee and Festus Ezeli are then present for insurance.
That team would cause a ruckus in the western conference and would also have an improved defense. Cousins and Davis would anchor the paint while the likes of Aminu, Harkless, Crabbe, Turner and Layman will roam the perimeter. This makes the Blazers much more versatile and ‘switchy’ on defense which can help cover for Lillard’s defensive shortcomings.
All that considered, the dynamic inside-out duo of Cousins and Lillard will shake the bones of opposition defenses. The Blazers would vault above (its current) 7th in offensive efficiency without a doubt. Cousins will become a paint presence for the Blazers immediately which currently ranks 18th in points in the paint. Shooters on the perimeter such as Lillard and Crabbe will only benefit from the attention that Cousins draws inside.
Any transaction for DeMarcus Cousins will be polarizing around the league. However, if the Blazers are able to maintain the balance off the court for their production of wins, there is no reason why Portland cannot get the best out of a Boogie Wonderland.
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