National Basketball Association

Trail Blazers: Over or Under on their win total?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The over/under win total is set: Which way should you bet the Trail Blazers this year?

Last season’s 26.5 over/under win total in Las Vegas seems so long ago. Remember when this team was projected dead last in NBA’s Western Conference? One year ago – that’s where the perception stood on the Trail Blazers.

This season, Portland’s over/under win total came in at 46.5 wins. Enough wins to make the playoffs, but not enough to be considered a serious contender. If anyone bet their hard earned cash on last years over, the Trail Blazers didn’t make you sweat it out for long. Portland surpassed 26 wins in early February.

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Over or under this season?

The Trail Blazers won 44 games last year. If you like the over, Portland will have to win three more games than last year. The question boils down to this: Are Evan Turner, Festus Ezeli and a healthy Meyers Leonard (fingers crossed) worth three extra wins?

Remember, Vegas odds are largely built on public perception. The odds makers want even action on both sides of the bet. The goal for them is to instigate an even amount of money on both sides so that no matter the outcome, Vegas will take the house cut of the pot.

When gambling, often the best values are when public perception is not aligned with reality. For the Trail Blazers, the public perception is a little off. Many NBA fans outside of Portland only focused on the ‘over-payment’ of Turner, Allen Crabbe, etc.

If you took money out of the equation – Portland is a young roster that will enjoy the benefits of continuity. The band was brought back together by General Manager Neil Olshey. Portland also added a very important offensive creator and rim protector (Turner and Ezeli). Finally, if he stays healthy, they have an incredible option to play ‘small ball’ with Leonard at the 5.

The Portland Trail Blazers should definitely be three wins better just by way of a young roster growing and entering their prime together. Adding in Turner and Ezeli to the roster should put them over the top. Finally, considering the best got better in the Western Conference at the expense of another elite team (Kevin Durant to the Warriors), the conference should be a little easier overall.

My vote is over.

Prediction: 48 wins

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