The Milwaukee Bucks take on the Miami Heat after losing on Wednesday against the Atlanta Hawks.
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks had a real chance to beat a powerful Eastern Conference foe on Wednesday night when they took on the Hawks. Atlanta was without Dwight Howard and Thabo Sefolosha, but the Bucks had an abysmal second quarter that they couldn’t recover from.
The trend of Milwaukee’s success depending on the three-ball held up, as the Bucks shot 25 percent from beyond the arc and lost to the Hawks. When Milwaukee goes cold from long-range, the game is typically already decided.
Luckily for the Bucks, their next opponent is a team hurting even worse. The Miami Heat are 2-8, and might be without both Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic on Thursday night. Intentionally or not, some of the Heat’s lineups this year make it look like the team is tanking.
Things were always going to be tough without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, but it’s getting real bad in Miami quickly. No team should be underestimated, especially since the Bucks are known for playing down to opponents, but the Heat should be a team Milwaukee can handle.
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For Milwaukee: Watch Out For Whiteside
Without most of their old guard, Hassan Whiteside has become Miami’s MVP. Whiteside is averaging 18.2 points, 15.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.3 blocks per game this season.
He’s a huge problem for teams that need to get to the paint, like both the Heat and Bucks. Milwaukee doesn’t have anyone that can rebound on his level, so the paint might be owned by Miami as long as Whiteside is on the floor.
His presence makes shooting even more crucial for the Bucks in this game. Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo might have trouble getting to the rim against Whiteside, so the Bucks need to capitalize on scoring opportunities that come farther away from his terrifyingly long reach.
On the other end, Milwaukee needs to swarm Whiteside early and often. He’s not a very gifted passer, and the Heat aren’t a good three-point shooting team. If the Bucks can pester the big man enough, they could stall Miami’s offense.
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Major Key For Miami: Take More Threes
The Heat are near the bottom of the NBA in attempted threes per game this season. That explains a lot of their shortcomings so far–this isn’t a league where you can win while only making a few threes per game any more, unless you’ve got a truly great defense.
Miami has been good defensively, and they currently sport the fourth-lowest defensive rating in the NBA. A lot of that credit should go to Erik Spoelstra, and Whiteside for anchoring Miami’s defensive effort.
That makes them even more dangerous than Miami’s record suggests. Slow, tight games have a chance to be won by either team. If the Heat can keep Milwaukee from running away early and then sink some threes, this game could be won by the home team in Miami.
The Bucks have a clear edge in talent, but Spo is a terrific coach and the Heat probably won’t roll over and die, even without many of their best players.
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Player To Watch: Tyler Johnson
Whiteside will be great for the Heat–if he isn’t, they’re probably doomed from the jump. But newly-paid guard Tyler Johnson will be a crucial player for Miami in this game.
He’s Miami’s second-best shooter according to three-point percentage, and Dragic might not play in the game against the Bucks. Johnson only attempts 2.7 threes per game though–he’ll need to bump that up for the Heat to have a chance.
Johnson is not a franchise player, but he’s stepped up his production so far this season. If Miami starts to truly tank and deals some players, he’ll need to take a leap up and become the man for the Heat, at least for a while.
If Johnson gets hot and sinks some threes while Whiteside stifles Milwaukee’s offense, the Heat will have a chance. Johnson has scored 22 points in a game this year, and 16 in another where he made four threes. They’ll need similar production from him on Thursday.
Mandatory Credit: Robert Duyos-USA TODAY Sports
Finale
There are ways for the Bucks to lose this game, but they really shouldn’t. Miami is not a good basketball team this season, as weird as that is to type after their sustained dominance for so long.
Every team (except the San Antonio Spurs) needs to rebuild sometime though, and it’s now that time for the Heat. The Bucks need to capitalize on games like this if they want to make the playoffs this season.
Losing to the Hawks, even if they’re missing key contributors, is acceptable. They’re a really, really good team. The 2016-17 Heat are not, which means Milwaukee should beat them on Thursday.
Predictions and Leaderboard:
Ti Windisch: Bucks by 6 — 8-2, 78 point differential
Jordan Treske: Bucks by 12 — 7-3, 109 point differential
Adam McGee: Bucks by 7 — 7-3, 114 point differential
Tom Pheister: Bucks by 6 — 6-4, 120 point differential
Tim Wray: Bucks by 4 — 5-5, 115 point differential
Lukas Harkins: Heat by 3 — 5-5, 118 point differential
Adam Coffman: Bucks by 4 — 6-3, 106 point differential
Rohan Katti: Bucks by 5 — 6-3, 113 point differential
The game is on Thursday night at 6:30 p.m. CT, and will be televised on Fox Sports Wisconsin.
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