Golden State Warriors

Looking Ahead To The Golden State Warriors' First Round Playoff Matchup

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:19 p.m. ET

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Feb 13, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) with the ball against Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) during the second half at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 132-110. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors likely won't struggle much in the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs, but some matchups might be tricky for the Dubs.

The Golden State Warriors are not a team anybody would expect to be a first round exit in the NBA Playoffs this postseason. Even without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are quietly killing teams lately.

Golden State was the title favorite at the beginning of the season for a reason, after all. Stephen Curry is the NBA's reigning MVP, and Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala aren't exactly scrubs either.

Still, the games get played for a reason. The Warriors don't get a free pass to the NBA Finals, no matter how much they'd love to let Durant rest up until their likely matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers (although Cleveland would likely be down for a bye until the Finals as well, with how that team is playing defense.)

To get to the Finals, the first step for any team in the playoffs is to win in the first round. For the Warriors, that hasn't been tough in recent years. Golden State is 8-1 in first round games over the last two postseasons, with the only loss coming because of a James Harden near-triple-double on the road against the Houston Rockets.

Even if Durant isn't fully healthy, the Dubs probably won't lose more than a game in the first round. Right now it looks like they'll either play the Denver Nuggets or the Portland Trail Blazers right off the bat.

To get an early idea of how those series could go wrong, but probably won't, potential weaknesses for the Warriors can be examined, along with their biggest advantages over both potential playoff foes.

Mar 24, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles the ball in on Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) in the second half of the game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Denver Nuggets beat the Indiana Pacers 125-117. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Why Denver Could Be Dangerous

It looks at the moment like the Portland Trail Blazers will hold onto the eighth seed in the Western Conference, but that's far from a final result, especially with Jusuf Nurkic's recent injury. If the Denver Nuggets do stage a late-season comeback and snatch away the last playoff spot out West, they could make the Warriors' lives difficult.

Denver's best player is Nikola Jokic, without question. Jokic is a wizard with the basketball, and although he's no Russell Westbrook, he's posted six triple-doubles this season.

Jokic averages 16.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 58.2 percent from the field and 34.2 percent from three-point territory. Jokic's passing is his signature trait, but his combination of skills is what makes him difficult to handle.

Jokic shoots 62.7 percent from two-point range, and he's really hard to handle even for good defenders in the post. The Warriors don't have any traditional center who can handle his big body down low.

If Golden State sends help to prevent Jokic from destroying Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee in the post, Jokic is more than a good enough passer to find whichever Nugget is left open. It's going to be tough for the Warriors to handle him and account for shooters like Gary Harris, Jameer Nelson and Danilo Gallinari.

Feb 13, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives to the basket against Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) during the second half at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 132-110. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

But Not That Dangerous

Jokic can't play all 48 minutes of a potential playoff game, and even if he did Golden State has ways to counter his production. While Jokic is on offense, the Warriors can throw Draymond Green at him and hope that he can hold his own.

On the other end, it's easy to see how relying on a center against the Warriors could go wrong. Steve Kerr hasn't used the Lineup of Death a lot this season, but there's no doubt he'll play small in the playoffs.

Durant will likely be healthy by then, which means Golden State can throw out a lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Durant and Draymond Green. Jokic is stretchy on offense, but he's not going to be able to guard any of those guys on the other end.

The Nuggets are 1-2 against Golden State this season, and they've never given up less than 110 points to the Dubs this season. Denver would need to score relentlessly to beat the Warriors, and that's going to be harder in the playoffs than it is in February.

Mar 28, 2017; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic (27) reacts after scoring against the Denver Nuggets during the fourth quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

The Perils Of Portland

The Portland Trail Blazers are likely going to keep the Denver Nuggets at bay and hold the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Portland, like Denver, has a massive center who could make life difficult for the Warriors.

Jusuf Nurkic actually began the season as a Nugget, but he was traded along with a first round pick to the Blazers in exchange for Mason Plumlee and a second rounder. That deal is starting to look like a steal based on what Nurkic is doing right now.

Nurkic is averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.0 blocks per game. Those are absolutely monster numbers. Jokic is the better shooter and passer, but Nurkic is even bigger and more physical.

Unfortunately, Nurkic is out for at least two weeks after fracturing his fibula. That will cover the rest of Portland's regular season, and there's no telling if Nurkic will be ready for the postseason if the Blazers can hold onto the eighth seed.

Luckily, the Blazers have something the Nuggets do not have–more stars. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are both star guards, and either of them are capable of combusting in flames and scoring a ton of points, as evidenced by Lillard averaging 26.7 points per game and McCollum putting up 23.2 points per contest.

January 4, 2017; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives to the basket against Portland Trail Blazers center Mason Plumlee (24) during the third quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Trail Blazers 125-117. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

On The Other Hand

Nurkic is even stronger than Jokic–and even slower. The Lineup of Death will feast on the Blazers, who are better on defense than the Nuggets, but not by much. Nurkic trying to keep up with Draymond or Iguodala will be difficult, and if he gets switched onto Durant, he's lost without a map.

That's if Nurkic plays. If he isn't healthy by this potential first round matchup, then the Blazers will have to start one of Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard or Noah Vonleh at center, if they want to go small. There are no great options here.

That isn't the end of Portland's defensive problems. Lillard and McCollum are dynamos on offense, but they're not great defenders, to be generous about it. Even if those two were average defenders, which they aren't, it might not be enough.

There is no better guard tandem in the NBA than Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combine for more than 47 points per game while both shooting over eight threes per game and making 40 percent or more of their triples. Both of those players are rolling right now, and barring injuries (and sweat spots) they should only be better in the postseason.

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Aside from stopping them from shooting threes, which not even good defenders can do throughout the course of a game, Lillard and McCollum likely won't be able to prevent Curry and Thompson from going inside.

Curry is deadly when he gets near the rim, and Thompson is quietly a dangerous weapon when he matches up with a smaller guard. Even Warriors bench players like Shaun Livingston can make the Blazers guards pay for not defending well.

Curry is 6'3″, Thompson is 6'7″ and Livingston is also 6'7″. On the other end, Lillard is 6'3″ and McCollum is 6'4″. The size advantage there is real, and Lillard and McCollum aren't as good at being dynamic shooting scorers as Curry and Thompson are anyway.

There's a reason the Warriors are title favorites, and that Denver and Portland are fighting for the worst playoff seed in the West. It would be an upset for either of those teams to make Golden State play more than five games in the first round, much less actually beat the Dubs.

Still, both Portland and Denver have dangerous weapons on the offensive end. Either of them will pose some matchup problems for the Golden State Warriors, but the Warriors will give both of those defenses fits in the first round.

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