National Basketball Association

How To Bet The NBA Finals

Updated Jul. 13, 2021 2:56 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre

The unlikely NBA Finals are here, with the young Miami Heat – five rotation players age 26 or younger – squaring off against the Lakers, whose average player age is the second oldest in the NBA.

Why does age matter? Why would I lead with that, you might wonder? If the idea of old Lakers guards like Rajon Rondo (34) and Danny Green (33) chasing one of the best 3-point shooting teams through a dizzying gauntlet of screens gives Lakers fans pause, it should.

To be clear, the Lakers are the better team, period. They trump the Heat in offensive and defensive efficiency, and have the best net rating of any postseason team. (The Heat are third.) But the best team doesn't always win in the NBA – and even if Los Angeles hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy, as they certainly should, there's going to be value on Miami (with all odds throughout this article via FOX Bet).

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The Lakers could be one of the most public teams in recent memory, which means savvy fans might take an extra look at the Heat side of the point spread game by game (Miami is +4.5 for Game 1), and that's not all.

Two areas gamblers could find an edge in in-game wagering are close games and big deficits. The Heat are a playoff-best 9-2 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

And when the Lakers have gotten down double digits, they aren’t built to come back. They’re 0-3 when trailing by double digits this postseason. Conversely, the Heat are a playoff-best 5-2 in the same situation, which can be attributed to their lethal 3-point shooting and prolific bench.

Will those trends hold? What wagers should you consider? Which should you avoid? Here’s how you should bet the NBA Finals:

SERIES PRICE: The Lakers are considerable favorites (-350 at FOX Bet), but I would tread cautiously. Yes, they have been one of the three best teams in the league all season, but Portland-Houston-Denver didn’t provide much resistance. The Heat have beaten better teams – Milwaukee, Boston – in the playoffs, and are built to defend the Lakers' best two players, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

There’s some value on the Heat +300, which would imply that Miami wins this series 25% of the time. Just consider this: Between social media, radio, TV, podcasts – have you heard anyone pick the Miami Heat to win this series?

The Lakers definitely have the two best players in the series. But what about players 3-8? They will need a "Playoff Rondo" game, a night where Kyle Kuzma goes for 20, and probably at least one big game from KCP or Markieff Morris to get LeBron his fourth title.

PLAYER PROPS (MIAMI): Although I do think the Heat have a chance here, I'm not as bullish on their individual player values.

One player I’ll be targeting for under props is Bam Adebayo. Only 23, he is coming off the best stretch of his career, averaging 21.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in the triumph over Boston.

Here's the thing – the Celtics' weakness all season was stopping big men. The Lakers, on the other hand, are well suited to slow Adebayo with Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee.

The other player is Duncan Robinson. The Heat will have to be very careful with how they divvy up the minutes of Robinson, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro, as Robinson is susceptible to LeBron’s love for matchup hunting. Against the Clippers, he relentlessly targeted Lou Williams; versus Houston, it was Austin Rivers; versus Denver, it was Michael Porter Jr.

The Heat have three strong defensive players – Jae Crowder, former NBA Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, and Jimmy Butler – to put on LeBron. To prevent matchup hunting, I expect those three to play big minutes together, with Adebayo at center and Dragic or Herro at guard. Add it up, and I’ll be targeting Robinson under props.

PLAYERS PROPS (LOS ANGELES): I was all over LeBron props in the Denver series because the matchups favored him. He had his best postseason series, posting 27.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, and he had his fewest turnovers per game (3.4).

I’m slightly less bullish against a Heat team that we’ve seen contain Giannis by essentially forming a wall at the foul line and conceding the 3-pointer. LeBron is shooting 34.9 percent in the playoffs on 3-pointers. Besides the familiarity Erik Spoelstra has with LeBron, having coached him for four years, there’s Andre Iguodala, who has faced LeBron four times in the finals. I will be looking to bet LeBron point totals under.

MVP: LeBron is the favorite to win MVP (-143), followed by Anthony Davis (+250), and then Miami’s Jimmy Butler (+900) and Bam Adebayo (+1200). There may be a little value on Anthony Davis, but my hesitation is that we haven’t seen him face a nimble, skilled, young post player in the playoffs yet.

Portland offered Jusuf Nurkic (who was coming off an injury) and Hassan Whiteside, and Davis shot 59 percent and averaged 29.8 points per game. Houston tried to push Davis around with 6-foot-5 PJ Tucker, and Davis shot 58 percent and averaged 25.4 points and 12.4 rebounds. Denver’s Nikola Jokic is not a good defensive player; Davis shot 54 percent and averaged 31.2 points versus Denver. Adebayo will by far be his most difficult test.

An MVP sleeper could be Tyler Herro (+3300). Only 20 years old, Herro (16.5 ppg in the playoffs) could play the offensive version of last year’s near-Finals MVP, Fred Van Vleet.

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