National Basketball Association

Fact Checking Ryan McDonough's Brandon Knight Evaluation

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Phoenix Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough gave his input on Brandon Knight’s situation in 2016-17 compared to last season.

The Phoenix Suns have committed a lot of time and resources to Brandon Knight, and despite respectable numbers, most fans have been disappointed with Knight’s production.

If McDonough is right, the Suns should be in for a treat with a healthy Knight. But was McDonough’s breakdown of Knight’s game accurate?

McDonough said, “Last year, he settled a lot for jab stepbacks (jump shots) and things like that just because he didn’t feel like he had the burst to get to the paint, get to the free-throw line, absorb contact, bounce back up without potentially aggravating an injury.”

Seems logical enough: Knight was hurt last season, therefore he settled for jumpers and avoided slashing and creating contact. The standard for Knight is going to be his 2014-15 partial season with the Milwaukee Bucks, at least until he can top that.

It was that partial season of great basketball that enticed the Phoenix Suns on Knight. Now, that season is starting to look like an outlier.

How did Brandon Knight’s shot selection vary from 2015-16 compared to that productive 2014-15 Bucks season?

Mar 12, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (3) drives in against Golden State Warriors guard Ian Clark (21) during the third quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Suns 123-116. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Here are Brandon Knight’s numbers for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2014-15 compared to his 2015-16 season with the Phoenix Suns.

Advanced Table
Tm	G	MP	3PAr	FTr
MIL	52	1688	.341	.260
PHO	52	1870	.392	.204

Note that 3PAr is short for 3 Point Attempt Rate, which is the percentage of a players field goal attempts that were three pointers. FTr is free throw rate, which is the number of free throws a player takes per field goal attempt.

For example, Knight’s 3PAr of .392 means 39.2% of his shot attempts were three-point attempts, while 60.8% were two-point attempts. Knight’s .204 FTr means he shoots (approximately) 1 free throw for every 5 shot attempts he takes. Think of it this way: that is equal to drawing a shooting foul on 1 out of every 10 shots you take.

What the numbers mean: These both agree with McDonough. Knight in 2015 shot three’s far more often and got to the line less often than the 2014-15 Buck’s Knight.

Here is a different view, this time breaking down shots by distance:

Shooting Table
	3-Pt Field Goals
	% of FGA by Distance	FG% by Distance	Corner
Tm	FG%	2P	0-2	3-9	10-15	16 <3	3P	2P	0-2	3-9	10-15	16 <3	3P	%3PA	3P%
MIL	.435	.659	.291	.070	.077	.221	.341	.448	.581	.269	.298	.382	.409	.209	.377
PHO	.415	.608	.199	.132	.068	.210	.392	.461	.624	.407	.361	.372	.342	.134	.468

There is a lot going on here. Let’s just break off little chunks at a time, as it really shows an interesting change in his shot selection.

The first series of numbers is the percentage of a player’s field goal attempts that came from that distance. The second series is the player’s field goal percentage from that distance.

Overall, Brandon Knight’s field goal percentage dropped from .435 to .415. So Knight had a down shooting season, right? Maybe not.

Look at Field Goal percentage by distance: Knight’s field goal percentage improved significantly in the mid-range, with the exception of a moderate drop between 16 feet and the three-point line. Knight actually shot better from 2 last season than he did in 2014-15.

In 2014-15, Knight got 29.1% of his shots within 2 feet. In 2015-16, that was 19.9% – hitting exactly on McDonough’s point. In fact, the percentage of shots Knight took from 3 to 9 feet nearly doubled, indicating Knight really was pulling up short of the rim.

Knight’s percentage from 3 dropped from .409 to .342, but that still looks like a product of shot selection. By taking a three on nearly 40% of his shots, Knight was missing opportunities to attack, which keeps the defense honest.

Knight also took significantly fewer corner three’s: only 13.4% of his 3PA vs 20.9% in that short Bucks season. Note Knight’s outrageous percentage from the corner: .468%.

Last season, Knight’s real issue wasn’t settling for deep mid-range jumpers, but instead settling for either a 3, or getting close but not close enough to the rim.

The Phoenix Suns could also get better results from Knight by feeding him more corner 3’s. If only they had somebody else that could run point so Knight could space the floor!