National Basketball Association

Dallas Mavericks 2016-17 Season Outlook: Transitioning Into A New Era

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:57 p.m. ET

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Oct 3, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) drives to the basket against the Charlotte Hornets during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks are hoping that signing Harrison Barnes pays dividends, beginning in 2016-17

Last year- 42-40, 6th in Western Conference

It’s Halloween and the Dallas Mavericks stroll into a party. It waves “hi” to the Cleveland Cavaliers, dressed as a king, of course. It’s flirting with the underappreciated Portland Trailblazers, wearing a Cinderella costume. On the opposite end, sipping punch is Golden State, covered in paper dollar bills. Very original.

And like every year, the Mavericks show up as Frankenstein; a makeshift team assembled with a hodgepodge of unrelated parts. This year, former number one overall pick Andrew Bogut joins the fray. He teams up with a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in Dirk Nowitzki. Maligned journeyman Deron Williams is back along with hopefully healthy guard Wesley Matthews.

There’s also J.J. Barea. He’ll probably never leave. Devin Harris, Seth Curry and their big free agent signing over the summer Harrison Barnes. Think about the basketball backgrounds in just the names listed; Germany, Australia, Big Ten, ACC, first overall pick, second round sleeper, former MVP, Maverick mainstays, other teams castoffs, players from trades, players from free agency, just a few actually drafted.

It’s Frankenstein.

Yet, every year coach Rick Carlisle finds a way to make it work. Like last year, when the Mavericks won close game after close game defying the experts to make the NBA playoffs. But with an aging captain can this group make one more push for postseason glory and give the face of their franchise another title?

Oct 3, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Wesley Matthews (23) controls the ball against the Charlotte Hornets during the first half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Depth Chart

PG: Deron Williams, J.J. Barea, Jonathan Gibson

SG: Wesley Matthews, Devin Harris, Seth Curry

SF Harrison Barnes, Quincy Acy, Justin Anderon

PF: Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell,

C: Andrew Bogut, Salah Mejri

Forty percent of the Dallas starting lineup is new. Barnes will take over Chandler Parson’s place, figuring to be an upgrade there. Because of his playing style, Bogut fits better with the current roster than departed Zaza Pachula. Dallas needs a staunch, wall like figure to rim guard and play good low post defense. That’s Bogut. They don’t need a devilishly aggressive forward-center hybrid that will snag loose balls and rebound.

Bogut is also one of the best screeners in the NBA with wide hips that swing dangerously close to illegal angles when setting picks. But Barea and Williams are much more comfortable in pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop situations as opposed to generating offense sing handedly. They’ll gel well with Bogut.

Then, there is the question of how will this roster come up with enough points to compete? We’ll divulge more thoroughly later, but a bulk of scoring is going to have to come in the halfcourt offense and behind the three-point line.

Oct 3, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dwight Powell (7) celebrates a basket against the Charlotte Hornets during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths: Depth

The Dallas Mavericks biggest strength is team depth. The roster is gifted with five guards that could probably haul minutes on any team in the league. The backcourt is also versatile, with Williams, Barea, Harris and Curry all being able to play both guard positions. And each is a threat from three-point land.

Defense appears to be a strong suite for Dallas this year. Bogut is the anchor, with an All-Defensive Second Team to his pedigree. Matthews is averaging nearly two defensive win shares per year, which if you don’t speak nerd is solid. Chris Paul, regarded as one of the best defensive guards in the game, averages about three. Nowitski’s defensive game is underrated, and Barnes can guard both the small and power forward.

And with aged legs and players that fit well in the half-court offense, expect Dallas to play at a comparatively slow tempo. That will also limit points and help keep games close, where Dallas excelled last year.

And then there is the Nowitzki, Carlisle combination, or maybe brotherhood is the better term. The tandem has been together since the 2008-2009 season. That’s not quiet Tom Brady/ Bill Bellichik level, but it’s close. The two have the longest relationship between a coach and a player in the NBA, not including anyone on the Spurs. And when Dirk and Carlisle are in sync, it seems like the Mavs compete with anyone.

Oct 11, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) drives to the basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Weaknesses: No True Scoring Threat

Remember those “Wears Waldo” books? Finding a bulk scorer on the Mavericks roster will be like spotting the red-white striped Waldo in sea of people. There are so many interesting options on this team, but none are really what you are looking for.

To compete for hardware, you need a player or two who can average around 20 points per game. Nowitzki is the sixth greatest scorer of all time, but he isn’t an elite bucket maker anymore. Deron Williams, who is somehow already 32 years old, averaged just 14 points per game last year. And Wesley Matthews is a great spot shooter and lock-down defender, but he isn’t a number one option.

So the time is right for Harrison Barnes to take a step forward and become that guy, or rather the guy. His low-post games is solid and he can spot shoot efficiently. But Barnes needs to be able to create his own shot, a questionable possibility after he spent years living in the floor space created by Steph Curry. Much of the season might ride on the offensive progress of a player who has never averaged more than 12 points per game.

The biggest problem with Dallas, however, might be the juxtaposition between the speed of the guards and the methodical nature of the bigs. Players like Williams, Barea and even Barnes for that matter excel in the open court. But Nowitzki and Bogut are half-court players. When is it time to push? And then when to slow down? So finding the balance between pace and set-up offense will be key.

Oct 3, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) shoots over Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14) during the first half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Most Important Player: Harrison Barnes

A couple Dallas Mavericks blogs pinned Deron Williams the player who will need to lead the team to greatness this year. If that is the case, then Dallas is destined to be an also-ran. Because you know what you are going to get from Williams, 14 points and five assists a night with a three or two.

You also can predict Nowitski’s production and for that matter Andrew Bogut, Wesley Matthews and any of these other veterans. The x-factor is Barnes.

All veteran players are usually predictable; they’ve been here long enough it’s tough to improve. And Dallas is one of the oldest teams in the league, outside of Barnes. He is the only player that can drastically improve, catalyzing a aging squad destined for NBA mediocrity. Because he is the only one with real potential, he is team’s most important player.

If Barnes blossoms form role player to star, Dallas has their go-to scorer. Their offensive productivity generates at least three more points a game, which would have taken them from 16th in the league in scoring to 6th last year. Nowiski can fall back to the number two option, leaving Williams to be more of a facilitator and Matthews as a spot shooter.

In other words, If Barnes develops then he just fits perfectly in the overall scheme of this roster. He cornerstone in a system with plenty of role players. That is, if he develops.

Oct 8, 2016; Madison, WI, USA; Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle talks to his bench during the game with the Milwaukee Bucks at the Kohl Center. Milwaukee defeated Dallas 88-74. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

The Dallas Mavericks finished 42-40 in 2015-16, but actually had a negative point differential. Meaning they could have easily lost more games than they won. Had they been playing in the East, they would have missed the playoffs.

I think Carlisle will help Barnes turn into a really good NBA player. But I don’t think it will be enough to keep afloat a roster stuffed with aging veterans in an improving Western Conference.

There are just too many teams chomping at the bit to unseat the bottom of the conference’s postseason qualifiers and make the playoffs.

Record Prediction: 39-43, 10th in the Western Conference