National Basketball Association

Bucks' stagnant offense limiting their playoff success

Published Apr. 23, 2015 10:32 a.m. ET

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By Miles Wray

The good news is: things in Milwaukee are looking up. This year, the Bucks improved by a staggering 26 wins over last season’s league-worst record. As bizarre as Jason Kidd’s transition from Brooklyn to Milwaukee was, the Bucks have ended up with a great coach for their team. Even though the Bucks are young, they’re already built around an identity of lithe, agile defense. After having the league’s worst defense last year (on a points-per-possession basis), this year the Bucks had the fourth-best defense in the regular season.

Milwaukee has continued to bring that same defensive intensity to its first-round series against the Chicago Bulls. The Bucks’ defensive rating through the first two games of the series is 102.3, virtually the same as their 102.2 mark over the regular season.

But it’s no accident that the Bucks are down two games to none to the Bulls. Between these two games, the Bucks’ offensive rating has been a truly dismal 91.3. Now, no small amount of credit for this goes to the Bulls and coach Tom Thibodeau, renowned for his defensive coordinating. This year’s Bulls, however, aren’t exactly the same as lockdown defensive squads of yore: Chicago was 11th in defensive rating this season. That’s not bad—but it’s not great, either. A big part of Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have been self-inflicted.

In their ideal game, the Bucks would be able to stretch the floor beyond what Chicago bigs Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol could handle. Bucks starting power forward Ersan Ilyasova is a certified stretch 4, with 37 percent career three-point accuracy after seven years in the NBA. As Milwaukee gets deeper into its rotations, players like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jared Dudley play brief spells at the position. In theory, this type of versatility should really hurt the Bulls, who give heavy minutes to Noah, Gasol, and Taj Gibson, none of whom are particularly comfortable defending on the perimeter.

In theory. In reality, Ilyasova has been mired in a slump, going 1-for-8 from beyond the arc. They haven’t been bad looks, either. Look at how far away Gasol is from Ilyasova on this play, with Gasol clearly uncomfortable at the prospect of coming out beyond the key.

After halftime, with both starting lineups returned to the floor, virtually the same thing happened. This time, Gasol stayed home on Zaza Pachulia in the low post, and it was Noah’s turn to hesitate guarding Ilyasova.

It seems impossible that a capable three-point shooter would miss not one but both of these shots, but that’s exactly what happened. The next time Ilyasova got the ball after his third-quarter miss, he drove to the basket, drew a foul, and drained two free throws—smartly recognizing that his jump shot wasn’t falling. While that’s a savvy veteran move by Ilyasova, what would really cause problems for the Bulls is if Ilyasova actually drained these deep shots, perhaps forcing Thibodeau to make a lineup adjustment quicker than he’d like.

Ilyasova is hardly the only Buck struggling with his shot, though. The rest of the team has gone a combined 7-for-25 (28 percent) on their three-point shots so far in this series. Just like Ilyasova, the rest of the team has had some great looks as well—just, unlike Ilyasova, they’ve passed up the open looks. You can’t really expect to get more than one good look in a possession against a playoff defense: by passing these shots up, the Bucks are all but guaranteeing that they will be hoisting up a contested prayer at the end of the shot clock—including some prayers from behind the three-point line, leading to that devastatingly low percentage.

Here is Gasol hesitating to go out and meet Dudley, who is given ample opportunity to get this shot off, but ends up dribbling to nowhere.

The same thing happens just a minute later with Middleton, who is virtually the only player on his half of the floor.

It’s a bit mysterious that any team would pass up shots this open, but it happened. If it’s playoff nerves that are preventing the Bucks from taking and making these deep shots, well, teams that have playoff nerves have a way of never getting past the first round. As long as the Bucks are shooting this low of a percentage, it doesn’t look like it’s a limitation for the Bulls to keep their big men in the paint—rather, that looks like a winning strategy.

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