5 Potential Landing Spots for Nerlens Noel
With rumors of Nerlens Noel being discontent with the Philadelphia 76ers continuing to circulate, it’s time to begin delving into areas where he could be traded prior to the deadline.
Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
Nerlens Noel has emerged as the trade piece of choice for the Philadelphia 76ers by the looks of it, meaning there’s a fairly high chance we see the lottery pick from 2013 dealt sometime before the trade deadline in February. Noel’s defensive prowess is something that has established him as a legitimately valuable piece by NBA standards, and that makes him an asset that the Sixers could flip into a nice return.
Philadelphia is still notably thin on the perimeter, especially from a long term perspective, so that seems to be the likely avenue through which they attempt to make such a trade happen. A young guard, or perhaps future picks, will likely be at the forefront of any deal Bryan Colangelo swings–regardless of where he looks to deal.
With that said, however, it’s also imperative that we look at what teams could utilize Noel most effectively–and perhaps, what their motives would be for making the trade. Noel’s contract will be up by the season’s end, meaning he’ll likely be in line for a hefty sum of cash this offseason. His limitations offensively also play a major factor, as teams without enough firepower in the frontcourt already are unlikely to be major suitors for a defensively-oriented piece.
The following is a breakdown of 5 teams we could see looking to deal for Noel.
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are a team still looking to make the necessary improvements to be competitive with the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference, and thus have been at the forefront of the rumor mill revolving around the Sixers’ big men. Not only have the Celts shown that they’re likely willing to invest in the right pieces, but Noel has lobbed oddly-timed praise for the city of Boston–his hometown, might I add.
This move seems to fit Noel’s personal desires fairly well, as he’ll be both on a winning team and in a city he’s clearly fond of. It also fits the Celtics incredibly well, though, and could be the type of acquisition that moves both the team and Noel, on a personal basis, in the right direction.
The Celtics’ most glaring weakness this season has been rebounding–and that’s an area where Noel could contribute in a major way. Al Horford has never been a great rebounder at the five spot, and the likes of Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and Tyler Zeller don’t back up a weak-rebounding cornerstone all that well.
Horford is averaging just 6.9 rebounds per game so far this season, while none of the other three I mentioned have reached the threshold of 6 per contest. This is a team that has all the pieces to contend at an extremely high level outside of their blatant rebounding deficiency, and that deficiency alone has been a major key in limiting some of their upside so far this season.
Noel’s career average for rebounds per contest is 8.1, and in a more stable, injury-free environment he could ideally average even more. This is a Boston team that thrives on energy, but has been dreadful in one of the most critical hustle categories in the game–especially on the offensive glass. Noel, while not an all-encompassing fix, is a massive step in the right direction, providing both effort and results on both ends of the floor.
His rim protection is another attribute that would fit well into what Boston needs, and their lack of rebounding coincides with the lack of a commanding interior presence. Albeit Horford has been injured for a good portion of the season, he’s still far from a primary rim protecting source. He’s a fine defender by all means, and is the type of versatile, multifaceted defender that could excel in Boston’s rotation. They simply need to add that premier rim protector behind him, and that’s where Noel fits seamlessly into the puzzle.
Noel is averaging 1.7 blocks per contest over his career, but that number could easily have been higher if he wasn’t limited by the ever-clogging presence of Jahlil Okafor alongside him on the court last season. He’s an exceptional athlete at the rim, and has shown himself to be one of the more promising interior defenders in the league moving forwards.
That’s the type of piece that Brad Stevens and company could be salivating over as they attempt to take this team to the upper echelon of competition.
What Could Move
In terms of what they would trade, one of the several guards that Boston’s rotation bolsters would obviously be on the table. Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier would be the cornerstone, while future picks or some other complementary pieces would likely be thrown into the fold.
Smart seems like a real possibility here, which I think in and of itself would be a massive victory for the Sixers. It’s tough to find a player as versatile on the perimeter as Smart is defensively, and his offensive improvements are only an additional bonus. The former Oklahoma State standout has been somewhat underutilized this season in Boston, and they could very well be willing to part with him despite his well-underrated value moving forwards.
Potential Trade Scenario:
Philadelphia 76ers receive: PG Marcus Smart
Boston Celtics receive: C Nerlens Noel
While this scenarios feels a bit hollow at the moment, the financial aspects work out perfectly. There would likely be more involved in such a deal, but there are far too many options extending beyond this year that make speculation pointless. The core of such a trade boils down to Noel and Smart, so the analysis is rather simple.
The Celtics would likely benefit in a major way from adding a player like Noel, who could immediately step into the starting role at center–pushing Horford to his natural position, power forward. His rim protection and rebounding would give a solid all-around Celtics team a boost in their weakest areas, while further strengthening a defensive unit that is already well-anchored on the perimeter with the likes of Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder.
While Smart does take a huge dynamic out of their reserve unit–namely being able to guard three different positions–I feel like this is a trade the Celtics would be willing to pull the trigger on to some extent, even if I personally would be a bit more hesitant in doing so. Terry Rozier has played well this season, and is somebody the team was enamored will when they draft him last season. There’s reason to think they may want to thrust him into a more prominent role behind Isaiah Thomas moving forwards.
Smart doesn’t help the Sixers in terms a shooting, but that hasn’t been nearly as much of a problem this season as it has in years past. We’ve seen Joel Embiid knock down threes out of the post, as well as Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric doing the same the four spot. Veteran additions have helped sure-up perimeter shooting as well, and the team has been thriving in that area in a manner we haven’t seen in a fairly long time.
Where the team does struggle, however, is perimeter defense–an area that Smart aids in tremendously. His aforementioned ability to guard all three perimeter positions at an elite level is an incredibly valuable piece in the rotation, and his two-way energy is something that consistently stands out when you watch him play.
Bringing that type of boost to the perimeter would be an excellent long term addition, as his age–just 22–means he could be a legitimate piece of the Sixers future. While this may be a bit controversial in the Sixer Twitterverse, a Noel-Smart trade would be an absolute victory–perhaps for both sides.
Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto Raptors
Another team that has found themselves in the midst of the Nerlens Noel rumors is the Toronto Raptors, slotting yet another competitive Eastern Conference teams that could be looking to poach the Sixers’ most experienced defensive big. While this trade may seem somewhat odd, especially considering Noel would be an automatic backup to Jonas Valanciunas, there is some validity behind potential interest from Toronto.
The Raptors lost a massive defensive cog off the bench in Bismack Biyombo this offseason, as the shot blocking stud signed a big-money deal in Orlando to play behind Nikola Vucevic with the Magic. Now, with Lucas Nogueira and rookie Jakob Poeltl being the only other true centers behind Valanciunas in the rotation, some added depth could be a positive.
Nogueira is a solid shot blocker in his own right, but nothing off the same caliber, nor polish that Noel provides on the defensive end of the floor. Noel’s more developed approach to the game defensively, both in rebounding the ball and from a physical perspective, is something that could provide a nice boost to the Raptors’ second unit.
This is a Toronto team on the brink of being the clear-cut second best team in the Eastern Conference, and making continued strides to stay ahead of teams like Boston and Chicago is likely something their front office is significantly interested in. Nogueira, even from an offensive perspective, is a shell of what Noel is capable of, and Poeltl has shown little evidence that he’s ready to make a significant impact so far.
This is a frontcourt, that outside of Patrick Patterson in the backup power forward role, is relatively limited outside of Valanciunas’ scoring in the starting rotation, and that’s the type of depth-related issue that can harm a team of Toronto’s caliber come playoff time. Out of the trio of Nogueira, Poeltl, and starting power forward Pascal Siakam, no player is averaging above 6 points or 4 rebounds per game. Patterson, as well, is averaging just 8 points and 5 rebounds off the bench.
Noel’s career averages of 10 and 8, with elite defensive pedigree at such a young age is something that likely appeals to the Raptors in a big way–and that’s something that could benefit the Sixers’ team in orchestrating a trade.
What Could Move
While they aren’t going to squeeze a star talent out of a deal with Toronto–or any team–there are some solid perimeter pieces that could be thrown around, with Terrence Ross being the primary name mentioned in that conversation. As an excellent athlete on the perimeter with a smooth stroke from deep, Ross checks all the boxes of an ideal player for the Sixers to cultivate on their perimeter–giving them a legitimate starting option to consider, and somebody who has some real upside moving forward still at 25-years-old.
Potential Trade Scenario:
Philadelphia 76ers receive: SF Terrence Ross, SG Norman Powell
Toronto Raptors receive: C Nerlens Noel
This is yet again a fairly primitive outline of a potential trade, but one that would theoretically work nonetheless. This is a move that jives well with Bryan Colangelo’s desires to make immediate improvements to the roster but still retains a noticeable dose of youthful talent moving forward.
Ross becomes an immediate starting candidate at the small forward position–especially with Covington struggling–and gives Philadelphia another reliable long-range shooter to boot. With the massive improvement we’ve seen in that department this season, adding another young weapon who can aid in established that precedent moving forward is something that the Sixers could benefit from in a major way.
Ross is putting in 10.4 points per contest on 44% shooting from 3-point range so far this season and continues to trend upwards in comparison to his career averages of 9.4 of 38% respectively. He is someone that the Raptors have stressed the value of quite a bit this season due to injuries, with DeMarre Carroll beginning to regain health, his status as a backup makes a trade for such a massive acquisition in Noel more palatable.
Now whether or not the Raptors see enough value in Noel to part ways with Norman Powell as well is iffy, but he would be a fine acquisition on the part of Philadelphia. The Sixers could very well be asked to move another perimeter piece–such as a Hollis Thompson–over in return to balance out the hauls, but Powell brings a nice prospect to the forefront of the Sixers’ rebuilding efforts.
He’s putting up 6.6 points in just 15 minutes of play this season but has shown flashes of extended success at times. The second year guard out of UCLA has improved his 3-point shooting–hitting close to 44% as well–and would become the most athletic player in the Sixers backcourt outside of the aforementioned Ross.
He’s a skilled slasher on the offensive end and has increasingly improved his awareness as an all-around producer at the NBA level. He’s one of those second round gems that teams stumble across on a yearly basis, and would really mesh well with the lingering ideals of Sam Hinkie’s ‘process.’
Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have been at the forefront of the conversation here quite a bit as well, with a number of rumors linking Noel to Portland. The Trail Blazers haven’t been quite as impressive as some expected heading into the season, but still are in solid positioning from a playoffs perspective, wielding a 12-10 record, good for 8th in the Western Conference.
While Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have established themselves as one of the more talented backcourts in the NBA, there’s still considerable room for the Blazers to grow on other fronts. Their frontcourt is still somewhat lackluster with Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard carrying the load at the five, and Festus Ezeli still has no timetable for his Portland debut after a bone marrow injection.
That’s where a player of Noel’s caliber could have it’s appeal. Plumlee and Leonard aren’t inept rim protectors by any means, but don’t offer the most intimidating defensive presence underneath. Their power forward core is also made up of rather versatile players among the likes of Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh, and could benefit from the additional stature that Noel brings to the table.
For a team that relies so heavily on their backcourt, their lack of consistency elsewhere has been a noticeable hindrance this season. With neither Lillard nor McCollum being particularly great defenders in their own right, it’s imperative to have the sort of fall back option at the basket that Noel can provide on a nightly basis.
The Trail Blazers are still a young team in most respects, and could provide Noel with a fairly extensive role early on. While neither Plumlee nor Leonard are poor enough to simply dump out of the rotation, Noel’s defensive prowess is more than enough to establish him as a primary facet in that rotation. Leonard is also an apt floor spacer, meaning he could theoretically share the floor with the likes of Noel.
This is a Blazers team that is in need of a spark plug to help revitalize a somewhat iffy start to the season, and bringing in a high energy defender like Noel could do that. They have the pieces to put a really strong defensive unit around their backcourt–namely Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner–but must go out an actively seek those opporunities out.
Assuming they’ve been in contact with Philadelphia like some reports seem to suggest, that could very well be what they’re doing.
What Could Move
The Sixers’ most compelling trade piece here would be, without much question, Allen Crabbe. After signing a 4 year, $75 million offer sheet this offseason, Crabbe has still found himself wedged behind the Blazers’ star guards for the most part this season. While he’s still averaging 9.5 points per game in 28 minutes, there would likely be more ample opportunity to seek out his own offense in Philadelphia.
Other young, less prominent guards–such as Shabazz Napier or Tim Quarterman–could also be discussed as potential add-ons in an eventual trade.
Potential Trade Scenario
Philadelphia 76ers receive: SG Allen Crabbe, SF Jake Layman, PG Shabazz Napier
Portland Trail Blazers receive: C Nerlens Noel
It’s still tough for even me to judge Crabbe and Noel’s value at this point, so this is once again a very primitive outline of what a deal could feasibly look like. The Blazers would obviously recieve Noel while Crabbe gives the Sixers the obvious benefits of an up-and-coming outside scorer.
Something worth noting here is that Crabbe isn’t eligible for trade yet, so this one couldn’t happen until the deadline draws nearer.
Crabbe’s $18 million per year price tag is certainly hefty, but with the rising cap space and the wealth of money the Sixers have at their dispense, it’s one that could be worth it. Crabbe has the upside of a 20-point scorer if given the right role within an offense, and has shown plenty of flashes to sustain that kind of prospective value moving forwards.
He’s also an improving athlete on the defensive end, and could mesh nicely with the Sixers’ current core in that respect.
Crabbe’s ability to create his own offense and find his niche within an offensive scheme has made tremendous improvement over the past season, and Philadelphia could give him the opportunity to take the next step in his development. The Sixers need long term relief on the perimeter, and Crabbe gives them a viable option for a contract that could become more reasonable as time transpires.
Layman gives the Sixers some relief at both the power forward spot–potentially–and on the wing. He’s a nice second round prospect to develop towards the end of the rotation. He’s an excellent athlete at 6-9, and was the ultimate role player at Maryland, executing at a high level within the scheme that was in place. He could be expected to find similar success off the bench in the NBA.
Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
San Antonio Spurs
This may be a bit for a pipe dream than the other teams mentioned thus far, but Noel’s fit with the Spurs is undeniably clear. San Antonio boasts what is likely the best player development record in the NBA, and their lack of long term depth behind Pau Gasol at the five spot leaves a clear path for Noel long term.
If Noel truly wants to be on a winning team, it’s tough to argue a better scenario for him outside of Golden State. He’d be immediately placed into a system that has proven each and every season under Gregg Popovich that is can maximize the production of it’s individuals throughout the roster. He’d be put into a position to succeed in a way he never was with the Sixers, and could feasibly take the next step from a career perspective under that organization’s guidance.
Are the Spurs looking to trade at this point? Likely not, but there’s still some sense in looking at the possibility. Outside of Kawhi Leonard, there’s no overwhelming certainty with their roster long term. Even LaMarcus Aldridge has had his fair share of speculation regarding whether or not he was locked in as a long-term cornerstone, which culminated during the offseason and died off since.
Tim Duncan was one of the league’s most effective defensive big men, and that’s the type of pedigree moving forward that Noel could help uphold. There’s no reasonable path towards Noel becoming remotely close to Duncan’s caliber as a player, but his prowess as a defender around the basket is already among the best in the NBA.
He has stellar instincts at the rim, and has shown he can produce both blocked shots and turnovers at a high clip as a result. Excellent athleticism with the instinctual nature that Noel possesses on the defensive end is something that could blossom in San Antonio, and the Spurs–at some point–are going to need to search out more options moving forward.
The personnel also meshes really well with Noel on paper, which is essential for a team that derives so much of its success off of on-court chemistry. Noel would be a nice inteior presence to throw into the mix alongside a handful of big men who can shoot in Gasol and Aldridge, while the rest of the rotation is also geared towards ball movement and perimeter scoring.
The Spurs’ second unit is littered with outside shooting, and that opens up space for Noel to get baskets at the rim in pick-and-roll situations and carve out more offensive production that we have seen in Philadelphia over the past few seasons.
What Could Move
Where the Spurs go for trade is a bit of a predicament, but they do have a handful of prospects stashed up that could, in theory, go towards grabbing a turnkey piece like Noel moving forwards. Guys like Kyle Anderson and Dejounte Murray come to mind as potential candidates in that regard, while even a Jonathan Simmons or Patty Mills-type player could be viewed as worth the split. Danny Green, even, would be a name that could come up in the conversation.
Potential Trade Scenario
Philadelphia 76ers receive: SG Danny Green, SG Jonathon Simmons, PG Dejounte Murray, 2017 1st Round Pick
San Antonio Spurs receive: C Nerlens Noel, SF Robert Covington
This seems like a loaded trade group and one that could lean a bit unfairly towards one side or the other depending on your perspective–but it could work out well for both sides.
The Spurs get the obvious benefits of Noel, which have been lauded throughout this section. He’s an elite young rim protector who gives them a solid centerpiece alongside LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard moving forward, and negating some of the post-Gasol worries that may be arising at this point.
Outside of that, Covington–despite his struggles–has proven his value as a defensive stopper on the wing, and could certainly find a spark being moved to a franchise like San Antonio. He hasn’t been the consistent shooter many expected this season, but moving from a league-worse team to a Popovich-led unit could certainly help him iron out some of his early-season disappointments.
The Sixers, on the other hand, get a really nice return here as well. Danny Green hasn’t had the best of seasons thus far, but has more than proven his worth as a perimeter spacer. He’s someone who could be plugged in on the wing–either as a starter or a sixth man–and immediately improve the already-better perimeter spacing in Brett Brown’s rotation.
Simmons, while still operating in a limited role, has been impressive in reserve for the Spurs this season. He’s an excellent perimeter defender who could easily fill the void that Covington leaves at the small forward spot from that perspective, and could give them an offensive boost off the bench to boot. He’s a phenomenal athlete, and a nice story as well. If the Sixers could add him and Green in the same trade, it’s difficult not to dub this a win.
Murray is somewhat of a wildcard here, but he would be asked to fill in the backcup point guard spot if Jerryd Bayless‘ injury problems continue to drag on. He was picked 29th in the draft–far below where most big boards had him–but is still considered more of a long term project.
His smooth scoring in the lane and excellent athletic tools (6-5 with a long wingspan) are certainly appealing though, and something a rebuilding Sixers squad could feasibly invest some time in given his upside. He’s a much more talented scorer than McConnell, and has the decisive passing skills to develop into a quality playmaker in time. He’ll experience his fair share of growing pains, but is a massive bump in the right direction compared to McConnell long term.
Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have ran out of gas. With the additions of Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut this offseason, the general expectations remained relatively consistent with what we’ve seen from Dallas over the course of the past few seasons–they’d compete for a lower playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Injuries, however, have absolutely derailed any such aspirations. The Mavericks, despite immense success from Barnes on the wing, have been nothing short of awful thus far. Deron Williams and J.J. Barea have battled injury at the point guard spot, while Dirk Nowitzki has spent an extensive amount of time on the bench with an Achilles strain.
With the team running low on young talent and a veteran core that is–quickly–falling apart in many ways, it’s time for them to begin looking beyond Barnes and the 2017 Draft for long term solutions. Andrew Bogut, as highly valued as some believe him to be, hasn’t mustered much outside of his defensive approach, and is rapidly aging. With neither Salah Mejri or Dwight Powell presenting starting-caliber options at the five spot long term, Noel would be an ideal addition to slide into the equation.
Dallas doesn’t necessarily lack rim protection with Bogut, but Noel’s far-younger legs are a legitimate step up. He’d give them team a much needed boost of energy and athleticism in the frontcourt once Nowitzki returns, and could provide the likes of Williams and the rest of the point guard corps will a more viable pick-and-roll threat, even with his offensive limitations.
This is a Dallas team that needs to get younger more so than any other roster in the NBA right now, and pulling off a trade like this would certainly be a step in the right direction. For all that’s been made of Noel’s attitude in recent months, his defensive energy and willingness to produce in that respect go without questioning–and that’s something that could mesh very well under the guidance of Rick Carlisle at the helm.
The Mavericks are undermanned and in the midst of what will likely be a season in ‘tank’ mode, even if Mark Cuban doesn’t quite admit to it. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t make a pretty significant leap forward next season though, and Noel would ideally play a large part in that.
Harrison Barnes has shown that he’s a real 20-point threat on a nightly basis, and Wesley Matthews is still a capable two-way wing player when he’s healthy. The pieces are in place for them to build moving forwards, they just need to be active in attaining those assets. That’s a notion that the Mavs’ front office is all too familiar with.
What Could Move
In terms of the pieces Dallas has to offer, they’d likely have to chuck up some of their unpolished guard depth to put together a package that appeals to Noel. A 1st Round Draft pick is almost out of the question given that they’ll likely be in the upper echelon of the lottery conversation, so they’ll have to rely solely on already-rostered assets–or future picks.
Jonathan Gibson–who has excelled in his rookie campaign off the bench thus far–would be a popular name, and guys like Dorian Finney-Smith and Justin Anderson would have to be thrown into the conversation. A future first round pick would also, likely, be included if the deal was done straight up between the two teams.
With that said, though, the Mavericks are in somewhat of a unique position from a talent perspective. With their stark lack of young talent that could feasibly benefit the Sixers, a three-team deal might be the most feasible route here–one that would likely ship Bogut elsewhere.
Potential Trade Scenario
Philadelphia 76ers receive: PG Marcus Smart, SF Justin Anderson, Future 1st Round Pick (Boston)
Dallas Mavericks receive: C Nerlens Noel, PF Amir Johnson, PG Terry Rozier
Boston Celtics receive: C Andrew Bogut, SF Robert Covington, PG J.J. Barea, PG Jonathan Gibson, 2017 2nd Round Pick
This is a hectic bunch of events, and filling in each side with picks and other pieces would be a difficult task for even the most polished basketball minds. However, the concept here of a three-way deal certainly bodes well–and ties the aforementioned Celtics back into the equation once again.
The Sixers would shed Noel and Covington in this case, gaining a solid haul from both of the existential parties. Smart, as mentioned earlier, provides elite defensive versatility on the wing, as well as legitimate offensive upside as a slasher. His lack of a consistent jumper is worrisome, but his hustle and ability to guard all three perimeter positions at a high level is difficult to come across.
Anderson, on the other hand, is another solid defensive prospect and someone who could help fill the void left by Covington. He’s an excellent, well-built athlete at the three spot, and has the spot-up shooting in combination with the defensive prowess to fit nicely into Brett Brown’s scheme. They’d also, ideally, grab a pick or two in the midst of this deal.
The Mavs get the proverbial prize in Noel here, as well as extra depth on the perimeter with Amir Johnson–who helps balance out the financial aspect of the trade for the Celtics. With Bogut shipped to Boston, Noel has an immediate starting role, while Johnson could play the four if Nowitzki’s current ailment carries on through later portions of the season.
They also gain Terry Rozier, who’s a nice boost of defensive grit and upside at the point guard position. With Deron Williams and J.J. Barea (who is traded in this scenario) aging, adding a steady playmaker with Rozier’s two-way production would be an excellent addition for a rebuilding Mavs squad.
The Celtics get the veteran-heavy portion of this deal, which makes sense considering the fact that they’re looking to compete at the highest level right away. Bogut would step in as the starting center alongside Horford, making a highly calculated defensive duo in the frontcourt while opening up room for Horford to operate at his natural position.
They would also help fill their perimeter voids with Covington and Barea, who could help fill a few gaps left by the departing units of this deal. Covington’s excellent perimeter defense would be a nice boost off the bench behind Jae Crowder’s elite presence on that side of the ball, while his spot-up shooting–if consistent enough–is a major addition for a Celtics team that is in need of outside shooting.
Barea is as solid of a spark plug as they come off the bench, and despite his defensive concerns coming in behind Isaiah Thomas, could find a nice niche sharing time with Demetrius Jackson and Jonathan Gibson. He’s an aggressive shooter and scorer when he wants to be, and paces the offensive nicely with quick bursts to the rim and solid playmaking skills. He also brings another veteran presence to a Celtics team that is looking to establish itself among the Eastern Conference elite at some point.
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