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2023 NBA Draft odds and predictions: Lines for picks 1 to 5, betting trends
Victor Wembanyama, a 19-year-old power big man from France, is a lock to go to the San Antonio Spurs with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft on Thursday.
How much of a lock?
The two-time All-Star in France's Ligue Nationale de Basketball (LNB) league has odds as short as -20000 to go first on Thursday at most sportsbooks (bet $10 to win $10.05 total).
You read that right — risk $10 to win a profit of … a nickel.
[RELATED: NBA hasn't seen anyone like Scoot Henderson]
For perspective, Zion Williamson had odds of -2000 to go first overall in 2019 (bet $10 to win $10.50 total) to New Orleans.
With the draft right around the corner, let's take a look at the odds for the first through fifth pick and some betting trends, with an expert's picks from FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
First overall pick (San Antonio Spurs)
Victor Wembanyama: -20000 (bet $10 to win $10.05 total)
Scoot Henderson: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Brandon Miller: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Amen Thompson: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Ausar Thompson: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Jarace Walker: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Second overall pick (Charlotte Hornets)
Brandon Miller: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Scoot Henderson: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Amen Thompson: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Ausar Thompson: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Jarace Walker: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Victor Wembanyama: 'I don't feel any pressure on my shoulders'
Third overall pick (Portland Trail Blazers)
Scoot Henderson: +500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Brandon Miller: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Amen Thompson: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Cam Whitmore: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Ausar Thompson: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Jarace Walker: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Fourth overall pick (Houston Rockets)
Amen Thompson: -280 (bet $10 to win $13.57 total)
Cam Whitmore: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Ausar Thompson: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Brandon Miller: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Scoot Henderson: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Anthony Black: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Jarace Walker: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Is Victor Wembanyama a better NBA prospect than LeBron James?
Fifth overall pick (Detroit Pistons)
Ausar Thompson: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Jarace Walker: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Cam Whitmore: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Amen Thompson: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Taylor Hendricks: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Anthony Black: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Picks via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
There have been some big surprises with the fourth pick in recent years, like Josh Jackson (2017), De'Andre Hunter (2019) and Scottie Barnes (2021). Keegan Murray was a surprise to many in 2022 to the Kings, but we had him pegged there last year.
This year, the groupthink is centered around Amen Thompson. I’ve had Villanova's Cam Whitmore fourth in my mock draft for over a month, and his odds have come crashing down to +300.
Houston would love to add a veteran point guard and start winning some games, but it remains to be seen if that’s going to happen. Whitmore is younger than Thompson, a better scorer and fits more naturally into the small forward position.
Fourth overall pick: Cam Whitmore (+300, bet $10 to win $40 total)
I’ve pegged Dereck Lively to the Lakers at 17, but a world exists in which the Mavericks decide not to bring back Christian Wood and make a move on Lively.
There’s big risk here as Indiana at No. 7, Washington at No. 8 and Utah at No. 9 figure to have no interest in the Duke big man. But the Mavs' defense was abhorrent down the stretch, and Lively would help significantly.
Top 10 pick: Dereck Lively (+210, bet $10 to win $31 total)
UCLA's Jaime Jaquez is a winning player, an older player with experience and ready to help a contender.
The good news is, there are several contenders in the 15-20 range who could use him, starting with Atlanta at 5 (especially if they trade John Collins), the Lakers at 17, the Heat at 18, and the Warriors at 19.
The problem is that teams drafting 20-23 aren’t contenders, and the Kings seem locked in on Iowa's Kris Murray at 24. So a contender who wants him could trade back a few spots and still get Jaquez.
Top 20 pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+500, bet $10 to win $60 total)
Time for Pelicans to move on from Zion Williamson?
NBA Draft betting trends and nuggets via FOX Sports Research
If you still have any doubt about Wembanyama being drafted first overall, 30 out of the 57 first overall picks have been 6'10 or taller. Wembanyama at 7'2 easily fits that bill.
There is a recent trend of international born players going first overall. Since 2010, five of the 13 selected first were born outside the United States. Victor Wembanyama will add to this trend with his likely selection by the Spurs on Thursday.
Blue bloods Duke and Kentucky have also had a lot of success in producing top picks. Each school has had three first overall picks since 2010.
Kentucky has produced 22 lottery picks since 2010, the most of any school.
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