The case for Tiger Woods and 5 other Ryder Cup final pick candidates
The Ryder Cup is almost here. It's a biennial reminder that the Europeans are better at team golf than the Americans, but Davis Love III and his hand-picked group of vice captains are trying to change that.
One of the issues has been the frosty play of some of the biggest names that should be on this team. Considering that all three of the players selected by Love already to represent his team have failed to win this season on the PGA Tour and have combined to go 1,800 days since last winning on the PGA Tour, it has seemed like a serious chore to find the appropriate names, and that’s where we come in.
I’ve mentioned before how we overrate winning, and so I worked up a bit of a formula to try and evaluate the remaining players out there that Love has his eyes on and how their seasons compare.
Since it’s silly that we take into account the 2015 season when looking at players for the 2016 Ryder Cup team, I’m throwing out any play that happened before Jan. 1. I’m also throwing out play outside of the United States, since these are PGA Tour players battling to play an event on home soil.
For their “Ryder Cup pick score,” I’ll be awarding players 6 points for a win this year, 3 points for a top-5, 2 points for a top-10, 1 point for a top-25 and .25 points for every round in the 60s (and, just for clarification, a win doesn’t also get counted as a top-25, so a top-25 is considered finishing between T-11 and T-25). Also, since missing a cut is such a negative in terms of momentum and how one fared each week, I’ll deduct 1.5 points for any trunk slamming that went down in 2016.
Let us dive in.
Bubba Watson
Official World Ranking: 7 Ryder Cup Pick Score: 20.5
The case for Bubba: Despite a sad season following his win at Riviera, Bubba is still a top-10 player in the world and still has as much talent (when things are clicking) as anyone else that will be on this list. People point to his season the last six months, but it hasn’t been that bad when you dive into it (he has missed just one cut all year long) and is one of the few guys that will be on this list that has actually carded a victory in 2016.
The case against Bubba: Well, this is where it gets tricky. Bubba has been a polarizing guy the last few years with his antics surrounding his golf game, and the last thing Love wants on his team is something that brings a bad attitude to Hazeltine.
On top of that, Bubba has been abysmal at the Ryder Cup over the years, especially in singles when you’d think a guy with his talent and ability to make a ton of birdies might thrive. He is 5-8-1 in Ryder Cup matches, has never won a singles match in his career, and has won exactly six of 48 holes at the Ryder Cup in singles without ever leading in a singles match (h/t to Golfweek’s Jim McCabe for that). He has lost his singles matches a combined 10 & 6 over the three Cups he has played in, and at times, has looked as uncomfortable as he ever looks on a golf course when he’s losing these matches.
Also, the most glaring issue with Bubba’s game this year has been his putting, which is the final say in how these matches end up. Watson hasn’t had this bad of a strokes gained putting year since 2008, when he finished 171st on Tour (he’s 165th right now). In that money-maker area, from four to eight feet, Bubba is converting just 60.7 percent of his looks, good enough for 184th on Tour, and time and time again we’ve seen Watson struggle to keep the pace up with the ones you almost always expect a Tour player to knock in with their eyes closed. Putting has never been the strongest part of Bubba’s golf game, but it has seemed especially inconsistent this season.
Final say: Bubba is probably the safest of the remaining picks, a guy with a win and an impressive resume throughout the season without his best stuff. If it was anyone else but Bubba Watson, he would have already been selected for this team, and I think it’ll be very hard for Davis Love to choose anyone but the long-hitting lefty come Sunday evening unless one of these other names leave East Lake — host of this weekend's Tour Championship — with the trophy.
Jim Furyk
OWR: 24Ryder Cup Pick Score: 9.75
The case for Furyk: All the generic things you expect to hear when these matches come about. He’s a veteran, he’s consistent, he can rely on the putter, he has the ability to make a ton of birdies without being the longest player on the team.
Furyk missed a big chunk of the early part of this season because of injury and didn't play on the PGA Tour until May — one of the reasons his score is so much lower than that of Bubba — but he’s played some really inspired golf after his return, including a run at another U.S. Open title thanks to a final-round 66 at Oakmont.
It looked like Furyk would simply play himself onto this team before the FedEx Cup playoffs even began, with a T-5 at the Travelers (hello, Mr. 58) and a T-10 at the Wyndham, but he’s cooled a bit since the playoffs kicked off, failing to qualify for the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship, but more because he didn’t accumulate all those early season FedEx Cup points and not as much because of his T-41 and T-57 finishes in his two FedEx Cup starts.
If you are going to compare Furyk to Bubba, you have to think of the hotter player now compared to the guy that got it done earlier in the season.
The case against Furyk: Well, I think it’s pretty simple — 10-20-4. That’s his Ryder Cup record. One can make the case that all of these Americans are going to have weak records because we’ve lost six of the last seven Cups to Europe (and two of those were 18.5 to 9.5 shellackings, so not a ton of points out there to boost that record), but this record is especially awful.
It’s so strange to look at Furyk, a guy that you’d think fits this mold so well, and see a guy that has been on the losing end of so many of these matches over the years.
Final say: Furyk is exactly the opposite of Bubba here, someone that, if named “Ryan Palmer” instead of Jim Furyk wouldn’t even be considered for this team, but alas, he is, and seems like the front-runner to be the pick for Love considering how safe we go with these picks over the years.
Justin Thomas
OWR: 32Ryder Cup Picks Score: 11.25
The case for Thomas: He is exactly what this team needs in terms of new blood. He’s extremely talented, can get red-hot at times (a final-round 62 at the Travelers was trumped by that 58 by Furyk, but still impressive), and would be a welcome sight to someone like Jordan Spieth as a partner (sorry, Patrick Reed).
Thomas gets the ball close to the hole a lot (20th on Tour in the approach-the-green, strokes-gained stats), and has some rather impressive numbers when you look at his stats this season from 150-200 yards, something you’ll expect to see a lot at lengthy Hazeltine.
The case against Thomas: The bottom line, it’s tough to look at his year and think the consistency is where it needs to be to garner the final pick by Love.
He has missed six cuts, struggles with his putting (146th on Tour in strokes-gained putting) and gets real sloppy with his wedges the closer he gets to greens (his rankings balloon on Tour when he gets inside 100 yards).
Final say: I think he’s one Cup away from making this team, despite the friendship with some of the players and his always interesting Polo partnership with the team and Davis Love (don’t overlook things like this!).
I would love to see new blood on this team, like Thomas, I just don’t think he’s done enough the last few weeks, and months, to land a spot over the names above him here.
Ryan Moore
OWR: 42Ryder Cup Picks Score: 20.75
The case for Moore: Nobody on this list has played better golf as of late than Moore, a Billy Horschel-type run to try and make the U.S. squad.
In his last six starts on the PGA Tour, Moore has a win, two top-10s and a T-17, not to mention a scoring average of 68.95 (and that includes his 6-over performance two weeks ago at the BMW).
His stats this season have been ridiculously consistent; he’s 27th on Tour in total strokes gained, and is in the top 55 in strokes gained into the greens, putting and tee to green, and had a great run at the Dell Match Play in Austin, finishing T-5.
The case against Moore: I guess you could bring up the fact that he would be a rookie, or that, back in the 2003 Walker Cup — the best example of what someone might do once they are awarded a spot on the Ryder Cup — Moore failed to win a match and wasn’t even picked to play in the Saturday singles (tough to compare something that happened over a decade ago, but I figured it was at least worth looking back on).
A big week last week at the BMW would have really raised some eyebrows on a Moore selection, but a 73-74-71-76 week at Crooked Stick didn’t exactly help his chances at the exact time he needed to go out on fire.
Final say: If it was me, I’d pick Moore. He’s different, he’s talented, he’s played great as of late, and I think riding the hot-hand is a better theory than picking someone that stands on their name alone.
I think Moore brings a different type of talent to Team USA, and is the type of guy can be paired with anyone and be totally fine with that. We avoided the hot player two years ago and it ended up being a bad call.
Daniel Berger
OWR: 37Ryder Cup Picks Score: 22.5
The case for Berger: If we mention the way Moore has played of late, it’s worth bringing up the run that Berger has been on since his victory at the St. Jude.
After a WD at the Bridgestone because of a shoulder injury, the 23-year-old has notched some great finishes, including a T-5 at the Travelers (a final-round 74 lost him a shot at a second victory) and a T-10 at the BMW Championship to give him some momentum heading into the Tour Championship.
Berger’s stats have been solid all year long on Tour, ranking 19th in total strokes gained but I think more than anything, there is an intangible that Berger can bring that not many on this list possess. Let’s call it the Ian Poulter factor.
Berger can get under people’s skin. It’s not a knock on him, he just has that ability to play golf with the upmost confidence, showing that he knows he’s good and you should as well. One of the special parts of the Ryder Cup is how much the antics can help (or hurt) your team. I think it would be a welcome addition to a team that has a lot of quiet-types already on the squad.
The case against Berger: He’s a rookie, he struggles to find fairways (something that never bodes well for your partner in a team format), and his personality could work against him if, say, he loses that first match and gets down on himself or his game. I could see Berger getting down if he loses early and Captain Love sits him, and that wouldn’t be great come Sunday with singles, where even a half-point can swing the Cup one way or the other.
Final say: Like Thomas, I think Berger is two years away from making a Ryder Cup team. I love his fire, but think he will be just outside the final selection by Love come Sunday.
Tiger Woods
OWR: 741Ryder Cup Picks Score: 0
The case for Woods: He’s Tiger Woods! He’s trying to come back! He would bring so much to the team outside of actual golf talent! He would boost the ratings 5,000 times what they would be without him there!
The case against Woods: Well, the whole “he hasn’t played golf this year ,and hasn’t won since 2013, and may or may not be able to properly hit a chip shot” thing. That is an issue.
Final say: Paul Azinger was on the Clubhouse podcast with me last week and made an honest push for Woods, saying this is just as much about bringing in an audience and shaking things up as anything else.
There was a great piece posted on The Medium making a case for Woods, which is as silly an idea as it is a fun one.
I know it won’t happen, and shouldn’t, but man, it would be fun.
Some other Ryder Cup Picks Scores:
Kevin Na: 15.25
Tony Finau: 7
James Hahn: .75
