What 10 Simulations in College Football 26 Tell Us to Expect in Indiana-Miami

Before the 2025 college football season, we simulated the season 50 times on "College Football 26." Looking back, the results were… mixed.

Clemson and Penn State were two of the three teams tied for the most frequent national championship winners. They wound up meeting in the postseason, but in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl. However, the video game predicted that Miami (Fla.) would be a top contender, winning the national championship tied for the fourth-highest number of times in our 50 simulations. It also had Indiana and Fernando Mendoza winning the national championship and the Heisman Trophy once, something we'll give the game credit for, as not many envisioned Indiana going on a rampage this season. 

So, now that the national championship is here, what would we expect on Monday night? Well, we went back to "College Football 26" and simulated that game 10 times. We didn't do 15-minute quarters. Rather, we did six-minute quarters for our 10 simulations so we could get this down before Monday's kickoff, even with the extra time between games. 

If our simulations are a good fortuneteller, we should be in for a treat on Monday. Here's what we should expect in the national championship game if our simulations come to fruition. 

Fernando Mendoza will still be incredibly efficient

The Heisman winner has been an absolute heater so far in the College Football Playoff. Mendoza's thrown more touchdowns (eight) than incompletions (five) through the first two games of the CFP, doing so against elite competition. He completed 14 of 16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl win over Alabama. He completed 17 of 20 passes for 177 yards and five touchdowns in the Peach Bowl win over Oregon. 

Mendoza will be nearly as efficient in the title game, according to "College Football 26." Mendoza completed at least 80% of his passes in nine of the 10 simulations, including one where he completed 22 of 25 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns. 

There was one performance where Mendoza only threw for 93 yards. But he completed 14 of 15 passes in that game, still finding his receivers, even if they were for short gains. 

Will Curt Cignetti complete Indiana's surprise turnaround? Here's what that might look like come Monday night. (Screengrab via "College Football 26"/EA Sports).

Carson Beck won't be bad, either.

Beck has had a good first season in Coral Gables, but many would say he isn't the top reason why Miami has been able to win three games in the CFP. His stats would back that up, too, as he's thrown for just 509 yards in three playoff games.

Well, "College Football 26" is telling us to expect something different on Monday. Beck was just as efficient as Mendoza in the simulations, throwing for at least 250 yards in half of the simulations. In fact, in one simulation, Beck completed all 18 passes he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. In that simulation, Beck connected with star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney on a deep ball for a 56-yard score.

Beck also had a performance where he threw for 329 yards, completing 25 of 27 passes in that game. He had another where he threw for 288 yards. 

[CFP: The Ultimate Indiana-Miami CFP National Championship Lineup]

The run games won't be too effective.

Miami has had up-and-down success in the CFP with its ground game, while Indiana has remained one of the best ground attacks in the sport during the postseason. Don't expect the run game to be a factor on Monday, though. 

There wasn't a 100-yard rusher in any of the 10 simulations. Either rushing yards were hard to come by over the course of our 10 simulations, or both teams decided not to run the ball too much. For Miami, running back Mark Fletcher Jr.'s best game was when he ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. But that came after he ran for 18 yards on 12 carries in the previous simulation. 

As for Indiana, Roman Hemby had the best rushing performance out of the group of the Hoosiers' running backs. He ran for 81 yards on nine carries and a score in one of the simulations. 

Expect a close battle

The national championship game has been decisive in recent years. Hopefully, that changes this year, and we get a close game on Monday night.

"College Football 26" tells us that should be the case. The game was decided by one score in nine of our 10 simulations. We only got overtime in one of them, but we had three simulations where the game-winning field goal was either kicked with two seconds remaining or at the buzzer. In two more of our simulations, the game came down to a Hail Mary attempt. 

[2025 CFP Title Odds: Indiana Favored Over Miami in National Championship]

What's the most chaotic finish we could get?

Simulations No. 8 and No. 9 gave us maybe the wildest finishes possible for a championship game. 

In simulation No. 8, Miami appeared set to win, 16-10. But Fletcher got hurt on a carry right before the field goal attempt to extend Miami's lead to six with just more than 90 seconds left, forcing the Hurricanes to call a timeout. That allowed Mendoza to find wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. for another dramatic touchdown, with the receiver taking off for a 61-yard touchdown with just over 50 seconds left to give Indiana a 17-16 lead.

Miami still had a chance to win the game. But Beck's Hail Mary attempt fell short. He completed a 57-yard pass to Toney on the game's final play, but time ran out before the Hurricanes could get to the 10-yard line to snap the ball. 

In simulation No. 9, Indiana was in control for most of the game. It appeared it was going to come out with a 21-14 victory, too. But with 1:19 remaining, Beck threw a 67-yard touchdown pass to Ray Ray Joseph on fourth-and-18 to tie the game up.

Miami got Indiana to go three-and-out on the ensuing possession and got the ball back at the 50-yard line with 10 seconds left. Two plays later, it kicked a game-winning 61-yard field goal to win the national championship at the buzzer.

Now, that's some onions.  

Miami will win

Maybe the biggest surprise of them all: Miami won seven of our 10 simulations. The U is officially back, and Mario Cristobal (who actually isn't in "College Football 26") has made his alma mater a national champion again.  

Carson Beck and Miami will win the national championship, if our simulations of "College Football 26" are to be believed (Screengrab via "College Football 26"/EA Sports).

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