CFP Futures Betting Report: 'The Red Raiders Are Our Worst-Case Scenario'

College Football Playoff first-round odds aren’t drawing much action yet, with more than a week until the games commence.

But College Football Playoff championship futures are always intriguing and certainly got a jolt once the 12-team field was set this past Sunday.

Particularly interesting: The best teams also represent the best outcomes at Caesars Sports.

"Right now, we’re sitting really well on our top three: Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia," Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said, with one caveat. "Ohio State national championship is on a significant number of parlays.

"In fact, Ohio State represents 50% of money on all parlays that include the national championship winner."

So that makes the Buckeyes not quite as good for the book but potentially really good for parlay bettors.

Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on College Football Playoff futures odds and the one noteworthy game coming up this weekend.

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Will Tech Wreck Books?

Among the four teams with first-round byes — No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech — the Red Raiders are the trouble spot for Caesars Sports.

Notwithstanding those parlays Feazel alluded to, of course.

"The biggest liability we’re looking at and struggle to stay ahead of is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are our worst-case scenario," Feazel said.

That’s in part because way back in January, when College Football Playoff futures odds were first posted, Texas Tech was in the range of +15000 long shot. That’s 150/1.

Enough flier bets at those odds can make liability stack up in a hurry. Preseason and even well into this season, you could still find pretty favorable odds on Texas Tech, including +2500 in early November.

Ohio State and Georgia consistently had very short odds. Indiana had longer odds out there for a while too. But at Caesars, the Hoosiers haven’t captured action the way the Red Raiders have.

Texas Tech is now the +775 fifth choice in Caesars’ CFP championship odds.

Ohio State is the +235 favorite, despite losing to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. The Hoosiers are the +300 second choice to win it all, followed by Georgia at +450 and Oregon at +750.

More Loss Leaders

Another concern for Caesars developed just in these past couple of weeks: Miami. 

With all the speculation about whether the Hurricanes would even make the 12-team playoff, their national championship odds ballooned to +20000 (200/1) or more.

"Miami is a liability because of the unlikeliness that they would get invited, especially in the weeks leading up to that decision," Feazel said. "Miami’s odds reflected that, and people were taking fliers on the Hurricanes."

Miami saw its CFP futures odds come way in after landing the playoff bid, now sitting as the +2200 co-eighth choice, along with Ole Miss. The 10th-seeded Hurricanes are 3.5-point underdogs at No. 7 Texas A&M in a first-round game.

Oklahoma is creating championship liability, as well, but like Miami, would have to win four games to lift the trophy. And it’s a treacherous journey. The No. 8 Sooners host No. 9 Alabama in the first round and are 1-point home underdogs.

Should Oklahoma beat the Tide for a second time this season, No. 1 Indiana awaits. If the Sooners somehow win that game, likely waiting would be No. 5 Oregon or Texas Tech in the semifinals.

"The Sooners’ path is gonna be very difficult. But at 45/1, they’ve seen some action," Feazel said.

Tulane is the longest shot of the 12 teams, at a massive +75000 (750/1). A few $50 or $100 bets at those odds are all it takes to create notable liability — which Caesars has.

"Any time a team is that high, they’re gonna garnish some action," Feazel said.

Bookmaker Favorites

To reiterate, Caesars is in good shape to the top three teams in the field. Again, notwithstanding parlays running to an Ohio State championship.

"There are a lot more parlays on Ohio State than on Indiana. So Indiana is a really good scenario. But Georgia, Oregon and Texas A&M would be our best cases," Feazel said."

As noted above, Indiana will meet either Alabama or Oklahoma in the quarterfinals. Ohio State gets the Miami-Texas A&M winner, and Texas Tech gets the winner of No. 12 long shot James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon.

On Campus Sharp Side

There’s still one regular-season game left among FBS teams, as is tradition: Army vs. Navy. The service academies square off on a neutral field at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, at 3 p.m. ET Saturday.

College football betting expert Paul Stone is involved with Army-Navy, after getting a win last week by taking Indiana +4 vs. Ohio State. This week, Navy is a 6-point favorite in the 126th meeting between the storied rivals.

Navy is 9-2 straight up (SU), but a subpar 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while Army is middling in both measures at 6-5 SU/5-6 ATS. Last season, the Midshipmen were 6.5-point underdogs and upset the Cadets 31-13.

Stone likes Army +6.5, noting the underdog in this series is 10-4 ATS since 2011.

"Since both these service academies run a variation of the option offense, there's an element of familiarity with one another," Stone said. "I think that familiarity tightens any perceived talent disparity between the rosters.

"I believe quarterback Cale Hellums and Army are going to keep it close and make it a four-quarter game. I recommend taking Army plus the points."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Big bets with big payouts are certainly interesting. But so too are small bets with big — or at least relatively big — payouts.

A FanDuel Sportsbook customer put together something of a ladder parlay on Indiana, presumably before the season began. At odds of +36627 — a little over 366/1 — the bettor took:

• Indiana to go undefeated in the regular season
• Indiana to win the Big Ten Championship Game
• Indiana to make the College Football Playoff
• Indiana to win the national championship

Three of those boxes are already checked off. And the Hoosiers are the No. 1 seed in the CFP, after beating Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten title game.

If Indiana lifts the trophy on Jan. 19 in Miami, then the bettor’s meager 15 bucks becomes $5,509.11. That’s my kind of ROI.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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