Week 9 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?
As an NFL junkie, I do it all — gambling, fantasy, confidence picks, survivor leagues and my personal favorite: Pick ‘em leagues. I got off to such a hot start in the pick ‘em league (72% through Week 5). I was feeling great … but I knew that was unsustainable.
As we all know with football gambling, the market tends toward efficiency and the oddsmakers adjusted … I didn’t. I fell out of the lead after two really bad weeks but had a resurgence back to the top — as I made adjustments this week.
Home teams went a staggering 11-0 ATS Sunday (excluding the London game, which really isn’t home for anyone anyway). You knew the “road dogs” dominance would inevitably come crashing down.
Without a defense, you are not a bet-on team (just look at the 49ers)
The push (+6) here for the Bucs felt like a loss because Tampa had to be covering for at least 98% of this game. It’ll sound sacrilegious because Russell Wilson has been phenomenal (378 yards for 5 touchdowns vs. the Bucs) … but there are still major questions for Seattle – especially defensively.
They gave up 418 yards to Tampa and 5.8 yards per pass. The Bucs were 4-for-4 in the red zone. Mike Evans (12 catches, 180 yards and one touchdown) was unstoppable. The Seahawks are 7-2 this year, but only 4-5 ATS. I think the call here is to fade Seattle in San Francisco next week.
The No. 1 defense in football got shredded for 5.7 yards per play and a mind-blowing 210 yards rushing by Lamar Jackson. I don’t know about you … but I enjoyed almost every minute of it. The Patriots were down 17-0 and on the verge of getting blown out when the Ravens muffed a punt and let New England back in the game.
It was an all-around uncharacteristic performance from the Patriots — who had seven penalties, four of which gave Baltimore first downs. The Ravens were 4-for-4 in the red zone scoring touchdowns. Don’t get too excited … no sweeping conclusions drawn from this one. Just remember: It’s a week-to-week league, and New England has a bye before a meeting with the Eagles.
The Redskins are definitely not a bet-on team … and neither are the Bills
The Bills were dominating 17-3 … and then disappeared offensively before a 4th quarter drive got them the cover. Biggest takeaway: Buffalo’s run defense is troubling. Adrian Peterson rushed 18 times for 108 yards — but they’re still a bet-against team because the coaching staff doesn’t trust rookie quarterback Dwyane Haskins to throw downfield.
He went 15-for-22 for 144 yards, which is a paltry 4.5 yards per pass. At least he didn’t make any mistakes … or the Redskins would have been blown out. The end is near for Frank Gore: 11 carries, 15 yards, and (twice at least) four of those carries were on short yards plays in which he didn’t deliver.
Don’t forget: All your research doesn’t take into account these players are only human
Okay, this one was a bad pick … and I regretted after just one quarter. It’s difficult to quantify, or even explain in a space like this — but when we do our picks Wednesday, I keep my ears and eyes open to see if others are making picks similar to my own. This week, every radio show, podcast, TV show or internet article I read picked the Jaguars for many of the same reasons I outlined in the video: Familiarity with London, injuries to the Houston secondary and a close meeting earlier this season in Houston.
In fact, the line actually closed with Jacksonville the favorite! When the world is on one side, and Vegas needs the other … well, one side built casinos in the desert. Other results this week that applied here: Chargers 26, Packers 11.
I might be a masochist … but the Browns are still a bet-on team
Where to begin? Should we start with 1-for-5 in the red zone? 4th and 1 and not having Nick Chubb on the field … and then watching Baker Mayfield come up short on the sneak from the 5-yard line? Or perhaps the tackling on the 75-yard touchdown by rookie Noah Fant?
I just can’t get over the fact that the Browns were facing a quarterback who had never taken an NFL snap, and they let him throw two touchdown passes and move the ball easily — averaging 7.0 yards per pass. The Browns committed fewer penalties, didn’t turn the ball over, held the ball for 35:30 minutes … and lost. The talent is there, but the execution is not. Potentially regrettable decision … the schedule going forward is just too easy not to hold my nose and back the Browns again. Guess I’ll find out if hindsight will be 20/20 here.