Patriots vs. Broncos 2025 Championship Game Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 25

Published Jan. 23, 2026 4:43 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

In the AFC Championship game of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the New England Patriots will match up against the Denver Broncos. The Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -4.5). The matchup has an over/under of 43.5 points.

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Patriots vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Lines

Patriots vs Broncos Betting Information updated as of January 23, 2026, 4:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Patriots	-4.5	-107	-125	43.5	-107	-125

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Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Broncos (+4.5)
Pick OU: Over (43.5)
Prediction: Patriots 23 - Broncos 21

How to Watch New England vs. Denver

Game date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV: CBS
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Patriots vs. Broncos Recent Matchups

In their last two head-to-head meetings, New England has defeated Denver two times.
Denver has been outpaced by 28 points in its last two tilts against New England.

New England Betting Info

New England beat the spread 11 times in 17 games during the season season and is 1-0-0 versus the spread in the playoffs.
The Patriots have been favored by 4.5 points or more nine times this season (regular season and playoffs), and covered the spread in six of those games.
New England had 11 of its 17 games go over the point total during the season. Meanwhile, it has topped the over in zero of one game in the playoffs.
The Patriots won 90.9% of the games in the regular season when they were favored on the moneyline (10-1). As moneyline favorites in the playoffs, they have a record of 1-0.
Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Patriots' implied win probability is 68.6%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	250.5 (4,258)	4
Rush yards	128.9 (2,191)	6
Points scored	28.8 (490)	2
Pass yards against	193.5 (3,290)	9
Rush yards against	101.7 (1,729)	6
Points allowed	18.8 (320)	4

New England's Key Players

Offense

Drake Maye has passed for 4,394 yards (fourth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He averages 258.5 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt, while completing 72.0% of his attempts.
To go along with his passing stats, Maye also has 450 rushing yards (third on the Patriots), with four rushing touchdowns.
TreVeyon Henderson's rushing statline this season includes 911 yards and nine TDs. He's averaging 53.6 yards per game and 5.1 per attempt (fifth in the NFL).
Henderson's 42 targets as part of the passing attack have turned into 35 catches (2.1 per game) for 221 yards (13.0 per game) and one touchdown.
Through 14 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has picked up 603 yards on the ground, averaging 43.1 yards per game and scoring seven touchdowns.
Stevenson has totaled 32 receptions on 37 targets for 345 yards, with two receiving TDs.
Stefon Diggs has racked up 1,013 receiving yards and four touchdowns with 85 catches on 102 targets. He is averaging 5.0 receptions and 59.6 yards per game.

Defense

Over on defense, Marcus Jones has 65 tackles, 8.0 TFL, two sacks, and three interceptions in 2025.
Jaylinn Hawkins has 70 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four interceptions this season.
This season, Robert Spillane has recorded 1.0 sack to go with 4.0 TFL, 97 tackles, and two interceptions.
So far this season, Harold Landry has 49 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 8.5 sacks.

Denver Betting Info

Denver had seven wins in 17 games against the spread during the regular season and is 1-0-0 ATS in the playoffs.
The Broncos are unbeaten ATS (2-0) as 4.5-point underdogs or more during the regular season and playoffs.
During the regular season, seven of Denver's 17 games went over the point total. Meanwhile, in the playoffs, it has exceeded the point total in one of one games.
During the regular season, the Broncos won four out of five games in which they were the underdogs. They are 0-0 in the playoffs.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 35.7% chance of a victory for the Broncos.

Broncos Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	223.9 (3,807)	11
Rush yards	118.7 (2,018)	16
Points scored	23.6 (401)	14
Pass yards against	187.2 (3,182)	7
Rush yards against	91.1 (1,548)	2
Points allowed	18.3 (311)	3

Denver's Key Players

Offense

So far this year in 17 games, RJ Harvey has racked up 540 rushing yards (second on the Broncos) and scored seven rushing touchdowns. He averages 31.8 yards per game and 3.7 per carry (41st in the NFL).
On top of his rushing statistics, Harvey has caught 47 passes (on 58 targets) for 356 yards (fifth on the Broncos), with five receiving touchdowns. He's averaging 20.9 yards per game.
Courtland Sutton has put together a 2025 campaign that includes 74 catches for 1,017 yards and seven receiving touchdowns in 17 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 124 targets and is averaging 4.4 receptions per game.
In 17 games played this season, Troy Franklin has 65 catches (3.8 receptions per game on 6.1 targets per game) for 709 yards and six receiving touchdowns.
Marvin Mims has been targeted 51 times, resulting in 37 catches for 322 yards .

Defense

In 2025, Nik Bonitto has recorded 14.0 sacks to go with 14.0 TFL and 46 tackles over 17 games. He ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks.
Talanoa Hufanga has 106 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defended.
Alex Singleton has 135 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended during the 2025 season.
Zach Allen has 38 tackles, 4.0 TFL, seven sacks, and six passes defended.