Patriots vs. Broncos 2025 Championship Game Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 25

Updated Jan. 25, 2026 2:44 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The New England Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -4.5), in their AFC Playoffs matchup against the Denver Broncos. The matchup has an over/under of 43.5 points.

Keep up with the 2025 NFL season on FOX Sports.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Lines

Patriots vs Broncos Betting Information updated as of January 25, 2026, 12:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Patriots	-4.5	-106	-125	43.5	-102	-118

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Broncos (+4.5)
Pick OU: Over (43.5)
Prediction: Patriots 23 - Broncos 21

How to Watch New England vs. Denver

Game date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, Colorado
TV: CBS
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Patriots vs. Broncos Recent Matchups

Over their last two meetings, New England has collected two wins versus Denver.
In their last two head-to-head matchups, New England has scored 67 points versus Denver, while allowing only 39 points.

New England Betting Info

Against the spread, New England went 11-6-0 during the regular season. It is 1-0-0 ATS in the playoffs.
The Patriots have an ATS record of 6-3 when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites this season (regular season and playoffs).
New England had 11 of its 17 games hit the over during the season. Meanwhile, it has exceeded the over in zero of one game in the playoffs.
The Patriots won 90.9% of the games in the regular season when they were favored on the moneyline (10-1). As moneyline favorites in the playoffs, they have a record of 1-0.
Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Patriots' implied win probability is 67.2%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	250.5 (4,258)	4
Rush yards	128.9 (2,191)	6
Points scored	28.8 (490)	2
Pass yards against	193.5 (3,290)	9
Rush yards against	101.7 (1,729)	6
Points allowed	18.8 (320)	4

New England's Key Players

Offense

Drake Maye has passed for 4,394 yards (fourth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He averages 258.5 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt, while completing 72.0% of his passes.
He has added 450 rushing yards (26.5 per game) and four touchdowns on the ground.
TreVeyon Henderson has totaled 911 rushing yards with nine touchdowns (53.6 yards per game over 17 games). His 5.1 yards per attempt rank fifth in the NFL.
Henderson has 35 catches on 42 targets for 221 yards. He has one receiving TD.
In 14 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has picked up 603 rushing yards, averaging 43.1 yards per game and scoring seven touchdowns.
Stevenson has 32 catches on 37 targets for 345 yards, with two receiving TDs.
Stefon Diggs has 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. He's been targeted 102 times in the passing game, and averages 5.0 receptions and 59.6 yards through 17 games played.

Defense

On the defensive side, Marcus Jones has three interceptions to go with 65 tackles, 8.0 TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defended in 2025.
Jaylinn Hawkins has 70 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four interceptions this season.
Robert Spillane has totaled 97 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions this year.
Harold Landry has 8.5 sacks (first on the Patriots) in addition to his 10.0 TFL and 49 tackles on the season.

Denver Betting Info

Denver beat the spread seven times in 17 games in the regular season. In the postseason, it has an ATS record of 1-0-0.
The Broncos are yet to lose ATS (2-0) as 4.5-point underdogs or more in the regular season and playoffs.
Out of 17 Denver games in the regular season, seven went over the total. As for the postseason, one of one games have exceeded the over.
In the regular season, the Broncos were underdogs five times and won four of those games. They have gone 0-0 in the playoffs.
The Broncos have a 37.0% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Broncos Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	223.9 (3,807)	11
Rush yards	118.7 (2,018)	16
Points scored	23.6 (401)	14
Pass yards against	187.2 (3,182)	7
Rush yards against	91.1 (1,548)	2
Points allowed	18.3 (311)	3

Denver's Key Players

Offense

So far this year in 17 games, RJ Harvey has churned out 540 rushing yards (second on the Broncos) and scored seven rushing touchdowns. He averages 31.8 yards per game and 3.7 per carry (41st in the NFL).
On top of his rushing statistics, Harvey has caught 47 passes (on 58 targets) for 356 yards (fifth on the Broncos), with five receiving touchdowns. He's averaging 20.9 yards per game.
Courtland Sutton has 74 catches for 1,017 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 124 times and averages 4.4 receptions per game through 17 games played.
Through 17 games played this season, Troy Franklin has 65 catches (3.8 receptions per game on 6.1 targets per game) for 709 yards and six receiving touchdowns.
Marvin Mims has been targeted 51 times, resulting in 37 catches for 322 yards .

Defense

Nik Bonitto has amassed 14.0 sacks (first on the Broncos and fifth in the NFL) to go with 14.0 TFL and 46 tackles over 17 games in 2025.
Talanoa Hufanga's stat sheet includes 106 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defended.
Alex Singleton has 135 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended during the 2025 season.
Zach Allen's stats include 38 tackles, 4.0 TFL, seven sacks, and six passes defended in 17 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox?

Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.