Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 3 prediction, how to watch, TV channel, odds - May 9

The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Oklahoma City is a 6-point favorite against Denver when the Thunder square off with the Nuggets on Friday. The matchup has a point total of 232.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Thunder-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, May 9, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: ESPN

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction

ATS Pick: Thunder (- 6)
O/U Pick: Under (232)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Nuggets 112

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Insights

• Thunder games have finished over 232 points scored, their current matchup's point total, 36 times (out of 82) this season.
• The Nuggets have played in 51 games this year (62.2% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 232 points.
• The two teams average a combined 9.3 more points per game, 241.3, than this matchup's total of 232 points.
• The Thunder and the Nuggets have seen their opponents average a combined 7.5 fewer points per game than the point total of 232 set for this game.
• Oklahoma City has been chosen as the favorite in 78 games this year and has walked away with the win 65 times (83.3%) in those games.
• Denver has been chosen as underdogs in 19 games this year and has walked away with the win 10 times (52.6%) in those games.
• In the last six head-to-head matchups, Oklahoma City and Denver have a tied 3-3 record.
• Both the Thunder and the Nuggets have 3-3 records against the spread in those contests.
• The Thunder covered the point spread in their previous four games, and were the favorites in all of those contests.
• Versus the spread, the Nuggets have covered in three games in a row, and were the favorite in all of those games.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder are 7-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall over their past 10 games.
• Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 4.8 points fewer than the 232 over/under given for this matchup.
• The Thunder have played 82 games, with 53 wins against the spread.
• Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 37-20-3 in its 60 games when favored by 6 points or more so far this season.
• The Thunder have gone over the point total in 54.9% of their opportunities this year (45 times in 82 games with a set point total).
• The Thunder record only 3.6 more points per game (120.5) than the Nuggets allow (116.9).
• Oklahoma City is 38-12-1 against the spread and 46-5 overall when scoring more than 116.9 points.
• This season, the Thunder have a 48.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.6% higher than the 46.6% of shots the Nuggets' opponents have knocked down.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in a higher percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered 28 times in 42 opportunities at home, and they've covered 25 times in 40 opportunities on the road.
• Oklahoma City has exceeded the total in a higher percentage of games at home (59.5%) than road tilts (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Thunder have picked up the win in 35 of 41 games when playing at home, good for a .854 winning percentage. They have won 30 of 37 games away from home (.811) as a moneyline favorite.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 32.7 points, 6.4 assists and 5 rebounds per game.
• Jalen Williams averages 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 36.5% from downtown with 1.8 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Isaiah Hartenstein puts up 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocks.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 1.8 assists and 3.9 boards.
• Luguentz Dort posts 10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. At the other end he averages 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks.

Thunder Player Props

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall over their last 10 games.
• Denver's average total over the last 10 games is 12.9 points fewer than the 232 total given for this matchup.
• The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
• Denver is 5-3 ATS when underdogs by 6 points or more this year.
• The Nuggets have eclipsed the over/under 59.8% of the time this season (49 of 82 games with a set point total).
• The Nuggets score 13.2 more points per game (120.8) than the Thunder allow their opponents to score (107.6).
• Denver has put together a 38-30 ATS record and a 49-19 overall record in games it scores more than 107.6 points.
• The Nuggets have shot at a 50.6% clip from the field this season, seven percentage points higher than the 43.6% shooting opponents of the Thunder have averaged.
• The Nuggets have performed better against the spread on the road (20-21-0) than at home (18-23-0) this year.
• Denver's games have finished above the over/under more frequently at home (26 times out of 41) than away (23 of 41) this year.
• This season the Nuggets are 24-13 at home when moneyline favorites (.649 winning percentage). Away they are 16-10 (.615).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic puts up 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game for the Nuggets.
• The Nuggets are receiving 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists per game from Jamal Murray this season.
• Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He is draining 50.4% of his shots from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range, with 2.5 triples per contest.
• Christian Braun gives the Nuggets 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while posting 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• Russell Westbrook gives the Nuggets 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game while averaging 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.

Nuggets Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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