Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 22

The Denver Nuggets (36-21) play the Golden State Warriors (29-27) on February 22, 2026 on ABC. Sunday's matchup between the Nuggets and the Warriors features the Nuggets as 4.5-point favorites. The game's point total is 230.5.

Take a look at everything you need to know to know about the Nuggets-Warriors game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction

ATS Pick: Warriors (+ 4.5)
O/U Pick: Over (230.5)
Score Prediction: Warriors 117 - Nuggets 116

Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Insights

• Nuggets games have gone over 230.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 37 times (out of 57) this season.
• The Warriors games have gone over 230.5 total points scored in 29 of 56 total matchups this season.
• The two teams average a combined 5.8 more points per game (236.3) than this game's total of 230.5 points.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 229.9 points per game, 0.6 fewer than the over/under for this game.
• Denver has been the favorite in 37 games this season and has come away with the win 26 times (70.3%) in those contests.
• Golden State has won in six, or 35.3%, of the 17 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• After the last two head-to-head matchups, Denver and Golden State have a tied 1-1 record.
• Both the Nuggets and the Warriors have 1-1 records against the spread in those outings.
• The Warriors have been the favorite in one of their past four games, and failed to beat the spread in all four.

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have gone 5-5 over their past 10 contests, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span.
• Denver has averaged a total of 229.4 combined points in its last 10 games, 1.1 less than this game's over/under of 230.5.
• In the Nuggets' 57 games this year, they have 32 wins against the spread.
• Denver has an against the spread record of 15-13 in its 28 games when favored by 4.5 points or more so far this season.
• Nuggets games this year have hit the over on 36 of 56 set point totals.
• The Nuggets put up 120.9 points per game, 7.1 more points than the 113.8 the Warriors give up.
• When Denver totals more than 113.8 points, it is 25-18 against the spread and 30-13 overall.
• The Nuggets are shooting 49.6% from the field this season, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 47.2% the Warriors allow to opponents.
• The Nuggets have a worse record against the spread at home (12-14-0) than they do in road games (20-11-0).
• When it comes to over/unders, Denver hits the over less often when playing at home, as it has exceeded the total 15 times in 26 opportunities this season (57.7%). On the road, it has hit the over 21 times in 31 opportunities (67.7%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Nuggets have won a higher percentage of their games at home (.706) compared to road games (.700).

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic puts up 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game, shooting 58.6% from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc with 1.9 made treys per contest.
• Jamal Murray posts 25.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1 steal and 0.4 blocks.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14 points, 1.3 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game.
• Bruce Brown puts up 7.7 points, 4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1 steal and 0.3 blocks.
• Jonas Valanciunas puts up 9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest. Defensively he averages 0.2 steals and 0.6 blocks.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors are 3-7 against the spread and 4-6 overall over their last 10 games.
• Golden State has averaged a total of 223.5 combined points over its last 10 games, 7.0 less than this game's over/under of 230.5.
• Against the spread, the Warriors are 24-31-1 this season.
• Golden State has an ATS record of 4-8 in its 12 games when underdogs by 4.5 points or more this season.
• Warriors games this season have gone over the point total 32 times in 56 opportunities (57.1%).
• The Warriors put up an average of 115.4 points per game, only 0.7 fewer points than the 116.1 the Nuggets give up to opponents.
• Golden State is 17-10-1 against the spread and 21-7 overall when it scores more than 116.1 points.
• The Warriors' 46.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is the same as the Nuggets have given up to their opponents.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Warriors have a better winning percentage at home (.448, 13-15-1 record) than away (.407, 11-16-0).
• In terms of the over/under, Golden State's games have gone over more often at home (18 of 29, 62.1%) than away (14 of 27, 51.9%).
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Warriors have a better winning percentage at home (.708, 17-7 record) than on the road (.400, 6-9).

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Brandin Podziemski is averaging 12 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. He's also sinking 45.1% of his shots from the floor and 36.9% from 3-point range, with 1.6 triples per contest.
• On a per-game basis, Draymond Green gets the Warriors 8.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He also averages 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocked shots.
• Moses Moody gets the Warriors 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game while delivering 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocked shots.
• Quinten Post is putting up 7.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He is sinking 43.9% of his shots from the floor and 35% from 3-point range, with 1.5 triples per contest.
• Al Horford gives the Warriors 7.5 points, 5 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while putting up 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

National Basketball Association

Golden State Warriors

Denver Nuggets