Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Picks - March 1

The Minnesota Timberwolves (37-23) will attempt to continue a three-game road winning streak when squaring off versus the Denver Nuggets (37-23) on March 1, 2026 at Ball Arena. Sunday's matchup between the Nuggets and the Timberwolves features the Nuggets as modest 2.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 241.5.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Nuggets-Timberwolves game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction

ATS Pick: Nuggets (- 2.5)
O/U Pick: Under (241.5)
Score Prediction: Nuggets 119 - Timberwolves 116

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Insights

• Of 60 games so far this season, the Nuggets have had 26 with over 241.5 points scored, their current matchup's total.
• A total of 18 Timberwolves games this season (out of 60) have had more than 241.5 total points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 1.8 fewer points per game, 239.7, than this matchup's over/under of 241.5 points.
• The Nuggets and the Timberwolves have seen their opponents average a combined 10.9 fewer points per game than the point total of 241.5 set in this matchup.
• Denver has been the favorite in 39 games this season and has come away with the win 27 times (69.2%) in those contests.
• Minnesota has been victorious in four, or 33.3%, of the 12 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
• After the last three head-to-head meetings, Denver has a 3-0 record against Minnesota.
• The Nuggets also have a 3-0 record against the spread when taking on the Timberwolves.
• The Timberwolves failed to beat the spread in their previous four games, and were favored in all of them.

Nuggets Recent Trends

• The Nuggets have gone 4-6 in their past 10 games, with a 5-5 record against the spread in that span.
• Denver and its opponents have combined to score an average of 233.1 points in its last 10 games, 8.4 less than the 241.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Nuggets are 34-26-0 against the spread this season.
• This season, Denver has an against the spread record of 18-16 in its 34 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or more.
• Nuggets games this year have hit the over 63.3% of the time (38 out of 60 games with a set point total).
• The Nuggets average 5.8 more points per game (120.5) than the Timberwolves give up (114.7).
• Denver is 25-18 against the spread and 29-14 overall when scoring more than 114.7 points.
• The Nuggets make 49.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.0 percentage points higher than the Timberwolves have allowed to their opponents (46.2%).
• In home games, the Nuggets have a worse record against the spread (13-14-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (21-12-0).
• Denver has exceeded the total in a lower percentage of home games (55.6%) than away games (69.7%).
• When playing at home, the Nuggets have won more consistently as a moneyline favorite, producing a record of 13-5 (.722). In away games, they are 14-7 (.667) as a moneyline favorite.

Nuggets Recent Stats

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic posts 28.7 points, 12.6 rebounds and 10.5 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• Jamal Murray puts up 25.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.4 blocks.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. posts 13.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.5 steals and 0.1 blocks.
• Bruce Brown averages 7.7 points, 2.2 assists and 4.0 boards.
• Jonas Valanciunas averages 8.9 points, 1.3 assists and 5.1 boards.

Nuggets Player Props

Timberwolves Recent Trends

• The Timberwolves have a 3-7 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall over their last 10 games.
• Minnesota and its opponents have combined to score an average of 233.2 combined points in its last 10 games, 8.3 less than the 241.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Timberwolves have played 60 games, with 26 wins against the spread.
• So far this year, Minnesota has been installed as underdogs by a 2.5-point margin or more nine times and are 5-4 ATS in those matchups.
• Timberwolves games this season have gone over the point total 30 times in 60 opportunities (50%).
• The Timberwolves average just 3.3 more points per game (119.2) than the Nuggets allow (115.9).
• When it scores more than 115.9 points, Minnesota is 22-12 against the spread and 29-5 overall.
• The Timberwolves have shot at a 48.3% rate from the field this season, 1.7 percentage points above the 46.6% shooting opponents of the Nuggets have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Timberwolves have had better results away (13-16-0) than at home (13-18-0) .
• In terms of the over/under, Minnesota's games have finished over 11 of 31 times at home (35.5%), and 19 of 29 on the road (65.5%).
• The Timberwolves' winning percentage at home as moneyline favorites is .667 (18-9), and on the road it is .714 (15-6).

Timberwolves Recent Stats

Timberwolves Leaders

• Julius Randle is putting up 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per contest. He's also draining 48.4% of his shots from the floor and 31.8% from 3-point range, with 1.5 triples per contest.
• On a per-game basis, Anthony Edwards gets the Timberwolves 29.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
• The Timberwolves are receiving 11.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game from Rudy Gobert this year.
• The Timberwolves are getting 14.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game from Naz Reid this year.
• The Timberwolves are receiving 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game from Donte DiVincenzo this year.

Timberwolves Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves