Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 17

Trevor Story and the Boston Red Sox will look to do damage against Janson Junk when he takes the mound for the Miami Marlins on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET, in the final game of a three-game series at Fenway Park. Oddsmakers list the Red Sox as -264 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Marlins +214 moneyline odds to win. Boston is favored on the run line (-1.5). An 8.5-run over/under has been listed for the contest.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Marlins vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSFL

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Marlins 3
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 58%, Marlins 42%

Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 44, or 60.3%, of the 73 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Boston has a record of 4-1 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -264 on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 72.5% chance to win.
• The Marlins have won in 49, or 47.1%, of the 104 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 2-4 when favored by +214 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 31.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox have a 3-2 record across the five games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over eight times.
• The Red Sox are 5-5-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• The Red Sox best hitter so far this season is Jarren Duran, who's hitting at a team-leading .262 rate along with 12 homers and 66 RBI.
• Among all MLB hitters, Duran ranks 68th in batting average, 64th in on-base percentage, and 62nd in slugging.
• Trevor Story has made the most of his opportunities as he paces his team with 79 runs batted in.
• Story is 50th in home runs and 16th in RBI in the majors.
• Story carries a four-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .333 with a double, a home run and six RBIs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .257 with 25 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs and 20 walks.
• Alex Bregman is hitting .303 with 23 doubles, 16 home runs and 33 walks.
• Bregman has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .368 with a double, two home runs, three walks and six RBIs.

Red Sox Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In seven games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 1-6.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Marlins and their opponents are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Marlins have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Xavier Edwards paces the Marlins with a .304 batting average.
• Among all batters in MLB, Edwards ranks 365th in homers and 204th in RBI.
• Otto Lopez is batting .241 with 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 38 walks.
• Lopez ranks 142nd in home runs and 74th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Agustin Ramirez has 25 doubles, a triple, 18 home runs and 26 walks while batting .237.
• Eric Wagaman is hitting .232 with 21 doubles, three triples, six home runs and 27 walks.

Marlins Team Props

Marlins vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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