Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 15

Alex Bregman and the Boston Red Sox hit the field against Xavier Edwards and the Miami Marlins on Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET, in the first of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Marlins are +140 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the favored Red Sox (-166). Boston is the run-line favorite (-1.5). An 8.5-run over/under has been set in the contest.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, August 15, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSFL

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 57%, Marlins 43%

Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 71 times and won 42, or 59.2%, of those games.
• This season Boston has won 12 of its 17 games, or 70.6%, when favored by at least -166 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 62.4% chance to win.
• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 102 games this year and have walked away with the win 49 times (48%) in those games.
• This year, Miami has won 15 of 32 games when listed as at least +140 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 41.7% chance of walking away with the win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox went 2-2 across the four games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the total eight times.
• The Red Sox's ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran paces the Red Sox with a team-high batting average of .263.
• Duran's home runs place him 127th in the majors, and he is 44th in RBI.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .259 with 24 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs and 20 walks.
• Rafaela is 100th in homers and 91st in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Rafaela has three games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .200 with a double, two walks and an RBI.
• Trevor Story has collected a team-best 75 runs batted in.
• Story is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last five games he is hitting .182 with a double and two RBIs.
• Wilyer Abreu's 21 home runs are a team-high mark.
• Abreu is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .333 with two doubles, four walks and three RBIs.

Red Sox Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Marlins have a record of 1-5.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Marlins and their opponents are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Marlins have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Kyle Stowers has posted a team-high 25 home runs and has driven in 72 runs.
• Among all batters in the majors, Stowers ranks 15th in home runs and 20th in RBI.
• Edwards' .305 batting average leads his team.
• Edwards ranks 362nd in home runs and 202nd in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Otto Lopez is hitting .241 with 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 38 walks.
• Agustin Ramirez is hitting .236 with 25 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 26 walks.

Marlins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Boston Red Sox

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