Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 11

Ceddanne Rafaela and Jose Altuve will be among the stars on display when the Boston Red Sox play the Houston Astros on Monday at 8:10 p.m. ET, at Daikin Park. The Astros have been listed as +138 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Red Sox (-165). Boston (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under is 7.5 runs for the contest (with -115 odds to hit the over and -105 odds to go under).

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Astros game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Astros Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, August 11, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Daikin Park in Houston, Texas
• How to watch on TV: SCHN and NESN

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction

• Score Prediction: Astros 5, Red Sox 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 54%, Astros 46%

Red Sox vs. Astros Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 70 times and won 42, or 60%, of those games.
• This season Boston has won 12 of its 18 games, or 66.7%, when favored by at least -165 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 62.3% chance to win.
• The Astros have been chosen as underdogs in 38 games this year and have walked away with the win 23 times (60.5%) in those games.
• Houston has a win-loss record of 5-1 when favored by +138 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• The Astros have an implied victory probability of 42% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox have a 3-1 record from the four games they were moneyline favorites over their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Red Sox combined with their opponents to go over the run total eight times.
• The Red Sox have gone 8-2-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran paces the Red Sox with a team-high batting average of .264.
• Duran is 119th in homers and 35th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Rafaela has 23 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs and 19 walks while hitting .259.
• Rafaela is 95th in homers and 86th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Trevor Story has put up a team-best 73 runs batted in.
• Wilyer Abreu's 21 home runs lead his team.

Red Sox Team Props

Astros Recent Betting Performance

• The Astros have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Astros and their opponents are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Astros have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Astros Recent Stats

Astros Player Insights

• Altuve has managed a team-high 21 home runs and has driven in 63 runs.
• In all of MLB, Altuve is 29th in homers and 46th in RBI.
• Altuve carries an eight-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .390 with a double, four home runs, five walks and nine RBIs.
• Jeremy Pena's .315 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Pena is 119th in home runs and 128th in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Yainer Diaz has 16 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 15 walks while batting .251.
• Christian Walker has a team-high 63 runs batted in.

Astros Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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