Guardians vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 16

Updated May. 16, 2025 5:01 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Jose Ramirez and Elly De La Cruz are the hottest hitters on the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds, who meet on Friday at Great American Ball Park, at 5:10 p.m. ET. The Reds are listed as +100 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the Guardians (-120). Cleveland is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total for the game has been listed at 9 runs.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Guardians-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Guardians vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, May 16, 2025 at 5:10 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
How to watch on TV: FDSOH and CLEG

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Guardians	-120	+100	9	-125	+105	-1.5	+133	-158

Guardians vs. Reds Prediction

Score Prediction: Reds 6, Guardians 5
Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
Win Probabilities: Guardians 53%, Reds 47%

Guardians vs. Reds Betting Insights

This season, the Guardians have been favored 17 times and won 12, or 70.6%, of those games.
Cleveland has a record of 8-3 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -120 on the moneyline.
The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 54.5% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
The Reds have been victorious in 10, or 43.5%, of the 23 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
This year, Cincinnati has won eight of 19 games when listed as at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 50% chance of walking away with the win.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

The Guardians have a 3-2 record over the five games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Guardians and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Guardians have put together a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	5.0
HR	10
ERA	3.74
K/9	8.4

Guardians Player Insights

Ramirez is batting .295 with eight doubles, eight home runs and 16 walks.
Among all hitters in baseball, Ramirez ranks 33rd in homers and 65th in RBI.
Ramirez has collected a hit in nine straight games. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .361 with three doubles, three home runs, seven walks and seven RBIs.
Steven Kwan's .325 batting average paces his team.
Kwan ranks 137th in home runs and 123rd in RBI in the bigs.
Kyle Manzardo has put up a team-best 10 home runs and 25 runs batted in.
Manzardo will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .222 with a triple, a home run and three RBIs.
Carlos Santana has three doubles, four home runs and 22 walks while batting .220.

Guardians Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Will Brennan	0.5 (-210)	1.5 (+150)	-	0.5 (+215)
Tanner Bibee	-	-	-	-
Steven Kwan	-	-	-	-
Nolan Jones	-	-	-	-
Kyle Manzardo	-	-	-	-

Reds Recent Betting Performance

In seven games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Reds had a record of 2-5.
The Reds and their opponents have combined to hit the over two times in their last 10 games with a total.
Over their last 10 games, the Reds are 4-6-0 against the spread.

Reds Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	3-7
Runs Per Game	3.2
HR	10
ERA	3.83
K/9	9.2

Reds Player Insights

De La Cruz paces the Reds in home runs (eight) and runs batted in (31).
Among all hitters in the majors, De La Cruz's home run total ranks 33rd and his RBI tally is 12th.
De La Cruz carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .286 with a double, three home runs and six RBIs.
TJ Friedl is hitting .274 with six doubles, a triple, three home runs and 20 walks.
Friedl ranks 165th overall in home runs and 123rd in RBI this season.
Gavin Lux paces the Reds' lineup with a .291 batting average.
Matt McLain is hitting .182 with three doubles, six home runs and 21 walks.