Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 13
At long last the Outkick picks have returned to near the promised land. After a 7-3 weekend we're now at 56-56 on the season. I'm still chasing that elusive 10-0 weekend, but our 3-17 run seems like a long time ago now. This is what you do when you gamble, you stand in there and keep making bets. You don't quit, you don't whine, you live in your tent until you rise from the ashes like the mighty phoenix you are and eventually win your way back to the big house on the hill.
The bet your mortgage pick is rolling now, baby. Rolling.
So here we go once more with the picks, 10-0 here we come.
As my grandma always said, get rich or die trying.
Kansas State at West Virginia -1.5 and the under of 58
Why not start off your college football weekend with a double gambling win?
What has Bill Snyder's team proven all season? That it's almost impossible to score a ton of points on them. The only chance Kansas State has to win is to slow this game down and keep it close throughout. Meanwhile WVU has proven that it's tough to win in Morgantown. TCU was incredibly lucky to escape with a win and Baylor lost by 14 here. The under is an incredible play and I also like West Virginia to win this game.
Once West Virginia wins it will leave people asking why Kansas State is a top twenty team. They beat Oklahoma by one point. Otherwise Texas is the only other team they've beaten with a winning record. Baylor is going to smoke Kansas State in the final week of the Big 12 season. But first WVU grabs a Thursday night win on FS1.
Ole Miss -3 at Arkansas and the under of 45.5
Ole Miss is coming off a bye week and still has an outside shot at the SEC West title. Arkansas is coming off its first SEC win in two years and feeling good about itself. So what the hell happens? A low scoring slugfest, that's what. Last week I told you the under was the play in LSU at Arkansas and this week I'm telling you the same thing. Last week the over/under went off at 50 before plunging to 45. Only seventeen points were scored meaning this bet was never in doubt. This week it's happening again. Ole Miss wins 17-13. But if you have to decide between playing Ole Miss or the under, I'd take the under.
By the way, do you how wild the SEC West would be right now if Laquon Treadwell doesn't break his leg as he's scoring the winning touchdown against Auburn? We'd have a three way tie between Ole Miss, Alabama, and Mississippi State at 9-1, 6-1 in the conference. The SEC West would have three of the top five teams in the country and the Egg Bowl would be setting up to be a default playoff game. Ole Miss is 8-2 and could very easily be 10-0 and the number one team in the country.
Boston College +20 at Florida State
This is the quintessential trap game for FSU. Wedged right between a road game at Miami and a home game against Florida, FSU takes off the Sunshine State battles and plays a random ass team from Massachusetts. You think anyone at FSU is excited to play this game? Meanwhile Boston College is helmed by Steve Addazio, you remember him, the man who was blamed for Florida's offensive woes at the end of the Urban Meyer era. Well, Addazio has Boston College playing decent football. The Eagles haven't lost a game by over 19 points all season. They also crushed USC in one of the most surprising outcomes of the season thus far and played FSU fairly well last year, jumping out to an early lead on the Seminoles. So I think they roll into Tallahassee and play a solid game. They'll lose by two touchdowns, but that's a win for us.
Missouri at Tennessee -3 and the over 47
It's rare to get an advantage on Vegas. That's why when you find one you ride it as hard as you possibly can. Right now Josh Dobbs is the Vegas eraser. Vegas can't quantify what Dobbs has meant to this Tennessee football team because the metrics of a Dobbs led team don't square with the metrics of the first seven games of this Volunteer season. Vegas is about numbers and Dobbs still doesn't compute enough for them to adjust the equation significantly enough to account for his awesomeness. Put simply, Tennessee is not the team that their statistics say they are right now. That's because of Dobbs, aka Eyebrowless Jesus.
Last week I told you that Tennessee was going to slaughter Kentucky and blow through the over. The Vols almost covered the over by themselves. This week I don't believe Tennessee will slaughter Missouri, but they will blow through the over and win by double digits, 34-24 Tennessee. (By the way, Vegas doesn't believe that A.J. Johnson's suspension is worth even half a point. Why? Because in major football only quarterbacks can really move the lines. I do think Johnson's absence makes the over even more likely, however, as I believe Mizzou's improving offense will score some points.)
Mizzou fans are upset with me because I'm "hating" on the Tigers. Not believing that Mizzou is anything more than an average football team isn't hating. The Tigers have been good on the road, but they're about to run into a Dobbs buzzsaw. (Comparing Dobbs this year to Dobbs last year is like comparing Mexico to New Mexico.)
Oklahoma State at Baylor -27
In the last four weeks Oklahoma State has lost by 31, 24, 24, and 21. Now they have quarterback health issues and they're facing a Baylor team that needs to make statements every week to pass TCU and gain ground on Mississippi State and Ohio State. You do not want quarterback issues when you know Baylor is going to hang 45 on your ass.
Take Baylor, big.
This is the bet your mortgage pick of the week, by the way.
Vanderbilt +29.5 at Mississippi State
Remember earlier in the year when that crazy Mississippi State fan offered to bet me $10k on Mississippi State +21? Turns out that was an Ole Miss troll. That's lucky for me because that turned into a hell of a bet for the troll. I'm taking Vandy here because 29.5 is just way too many points. The Commodores have only lost two games by thirty or more and that was week one and week two of the season.
Mississippi State can win this game 38-10 and we'll still cover. That feels about right.
USC at UCLA the over of 61
Both of these teams have great offenses, but the Bruin defense has given up 27 or more points in every game since September 25th but one. Meanwhile the USC defense has been wobbly all year too. When you have two great quarterbacks going up against two mediocre defenses, the decision is easy, don't pick a side, bet on points.
I think this goes well over 61.