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Last year I predicted Georgia to go 11-1 and win the SEC East. That prediction did not turn out well. This year I'm predicting Georgia to win the SEC East again. I'm sorry, Bulldog fans. But that's not all, I've broken down each team's schedule using five different categories: definite wins, likely wins, definite losses, likely losses, and toss-ups.
So how do I define those games? I'm attempting to forecast a rough spread for each game.
Definite wins are games that should have spreads of 17+. It's possible that a team could lose these games, but it's incredibly unlikely. If teams lose these games you're probably heading for a Florida Gators in 2014 like implosion. (Even with their implosion last year, the Gators only lost one definite win game, against Georgia Southern.)
Likely wins are those games that a team should win, but it's not a slam dunk. You're somewhere around a 8-14 point favorite in the game.
Toss ups are games I'm forecasting to have a spread of a touchdown or less. These are basically games where a play or two here or there has a decent chance of determining the outcome. I've also put a few games that will likely have a margin of more than seven points in the toss-up category. Figure that a toss-up is close to a 60-40 outcome at worst. That is, if the game was played 100 times the underdog would win around 40 of the games. Many of these toss-ups are much closer to 50-50 splits, where one team or the other will be a field goal or less of a favorite.
Likely losses are the reverse of the likely wins, the team that is likely to lose will be 8-14 point underdog.
Definite losses are games where a team will be a three score or more underdog.
Here we go with the 2014 SEC East:
1. Georgia
Definite Wins (4):
Troy, Charleston Southern, at Arkansas, at Kentucky
Likely Wins (5):
Clemson, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Mizzou, Georgia Tech
Toss Ups (3):
at South Carolina, Florida, Auburn
Likely Losses:
None
Definite Losses:
None
Outkick predicts: 10-2
2. South Carolina Gamecocks
Definite Wins (4):
at Kentucky, Furman, South Alabama, East Carolina
Likely Wins (4):
Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, Mizzou, Tennessee
Toss ups (4):
Georgia, at Auburn, at Florida, at Clemson
Likely Losses:
None
Definite Losses:
None
Outkick predicts: 9-3
3. Florida Gators
Definite Wins (4):
Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky
Likely Wins:
None
Toss ups (6):
at Tennessee, at Vandy, LSU, Mizzou, Georgia, South Carolina
Likely Losses (2):
Alabama, FSU
Definite Losses:
None
Outkick predicts 8-4
4. Missouri
Definite Wins (2):
South Dakota State, Toledo
Likely Wins (5):
Central Florida, Indiana, Vandy, Kentucky, Arkansas
Toss ups (3):
at Tennessee, at Texas A&M, at Florida
Likely Losses (2):
at South Carolina, Georgia
Definite Losses:
None.
Outkick predicts: 8-4
5. Tennessee:
Definite Wins (1):
Chattanooga
Likely Wins (3):
Utah State, Kentucky, Arkansas State
Toss Ups (3):
Florida, Missouri, at Vanderbilt
Likely Losses (3):
at Georgia, at Ole Miss, at South Carolina
Definite Losses (2):
at Oklahoma, Alabama
Outkick predicts: 6-6
6. Vanderbilt:
Definite Wins (4):
Temple, Charleston Southern, UMASS, Old Dominion
Likely Wins (1):
at Kentucky
Toss ups (4):
Ole Miss, at Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida
Likely Losses (3):
South Carolina, at Georgia, at Mizzou
Definite Losses:
None
Outkick predicts: 6-6
7. Kentucky
Definite Wins (1):
UT-Martin
Likely Wins (2):
Ohio, Lousiana Monroe
Toss Ups:
None
Likely Losses (5):
Vandy, at Mizzou, Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Louisville
Definite Losses (4):
at Florida, South Carolina, at LSU, Georgia
Outkick predicts: 3-9
I'm sure you all agree with every prediction. I'll have the SEC West up next week.
If you happen to be into season over/under wagers, there are no slam dunks in the SEC East this year, but I'm taking the over on Mizzou at 7.5, Florida at 7.5, and Tennessee at 5.5 and taking the under on Kentucky at 3.5.
