Outkick's 2014 SEC East Predictions

BY foxsports • August 7, 2014

Last year I predicted Georgia to go 11-1 and win the SEC East. That prediction did not turn out well. This year I'm predicting Georgia to win the SEC East again. I'm sorry, Bulldog fans. But that's not all, I've broken down each team's schedule using five different categories: definite wins, likely wins, definite losses, likely losses, and toss-ups.

So how do I define those games? I'm attempting to forecast a rough spread for each game. 

Definite wins are games that should have spreads of 17+. It's possible that a team could lose these games, but it's incredibly unlikely. If teams lose these games you're probably heading for a Florida Gators in 2014 like implosion. (Even with their implosion last year, the Gators only lost one definite win game, against Georgia Southern.)

Likely wins are those games that a team should win, but it's not a slam dunk. You're somewhere around a 8-14 point favorite in the game.

Toss ups are games I'm forecasting to have a spread of a touchdown or less. These are basically games where a play or two here or there has a decent chance of determining the outcome. I've also put a few games that will likely have a margin of more than seven points in the toss-up category. Figure that a toss-up is close to a 60-40 outcome at worst. That is, if the game was played 100 times the underdog would win around 40 of the games. Many of these toss-ups are much closer to 50-50 splits, where one team or the other will be a field goal or less of a favorite.   

Likely losses are the reverse of the likely wins, the team that is likely to lose will be 8-14 point underdog.

Definite losses are games where a team will be a three score or more underdog.  

Here we go with the 2014 SEC East:

 

1. Georgia

Definite Wins (4):

Troy, Charleston Southern, at Arkansas, at Kentucky

Likely Wins (5):

Clemson, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Mizzou, Georgia Tech

Toss Ups (3):

at South Carolina, Florida, Auburn

Likely Losses:

None 

Definite Losses:

None

Outkick predicts: 10-2

 

2. South Carolina Gamecocks

Definite Wins (4):

at Kentucky, Furman, South Alabama, East Carolina

Likely Wins (4):

Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, Mizzou, Tennessee

Toss ups (4):

Georgia, at Auburn, at Florida, at Clemson

Likely Losses:

None

Definite Losses:

None

Outkick predicts: 9-3

 

3. Florida Gators

Definite Wins (4):

Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky

Likely Wins:

None

Toss ups (6):

at Tennessee, at Vandy, LSU, Mizzou, Georgia, South Carolina 

Likely Losses (2):

Alabama, FSU

Definite Losses:

None

Outkick predicts 8-4

 

4. Missouri

Definite Wins (2):

South Dakota State, Toledo

Likely Wins (5):

Central Florida, Indiana, Vandy, Kentucky, Arkansas

Toss ups (3):

at Tennessee, at Texas A&M, at Florida

Likely Losses (2):

at South Carolina, Georgia

Definite Losses:

None.  

Outkick predicts: 8-4

 

5. Tennessee:

Definite Wins (1):

Chattanooga

Likely Wins (3):

Utah State, Kentucky, Arkansas State

Toss Ups (3):

Florida, Missouri, at Vanderbilt

Likely Losses (3):

at Georgia, at Ole Miss, at South Carolina

Definite Losses (2):

at Oklahoma, Alabama 

Outkick predicts: 6-6

 

6. Vanderbilt:

Definite Wins (4):

Temple, Charleston Southern, UMASS, Old Dominion

Likely Wins (1):

at Kentucky

Toss ups (4):

Ole Miss, at Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida

Likely Losses (3):

South Carolina, at Georgia, at Mizzou

Definite Losses:

None

Outkick predicts: 6-6



7. Kentucky

Definite Wins (1):

UT-Martin

Likely Wins (2):

Ohio, Lousiana Monroe 

Toss Ups:

None

Likely Losses (5):

Vandy, at Mizzou, Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Louisville

Definite Losses (4):

at Florida, South Carolina, at LSU, Georgia

Outkick predicts: 3-9

I'm sure you all agree with every prediction. I'll have the SEC West up next week. 

If you happen to be into season over/under wagers, there are no slam dunks in the SEC East this year, but I'm taking the over on Mizzou at 7.5, Florida at 7.5, and Tennessee at 5.5 and taking the under on Kentucky at 3.5.  


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