Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for August 23
Also, please scroll to the bottom of this article to see the latest tweets from Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler), D.J. Foster (@FOXSportsFoster), Adam Meyer (@FOXSportsMeyer) and me (@jhalpin37). That way, if information surfaces for any last minute changes, you can see our thoughts instantly.
Let's get to today's interesting facts, using DraftKings prices for the 15-game slate. Please note that much of the information in this post is being published several hours prior to game times, so check MLB lineups later to confirm that any recommended players are included.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Jake Arrieta ($12,500) is the day's biggest favorite at minus-244 on the road in San Diego. Only Madison Bumgarner ($13,100) is more expensive than Arrieta.
2. Five games - Diamondbacks-Braves, Angels-Blue Jays, Tigers-Twins, Nats-Orioles and Phillies-White Sox - check in with high projected run totals of 9.5, while Giants-Dodgers (Bumgarner-Maeda) is on the low end at seven runs.
3. Yo, BvPers: David Ortiz ($4,800) is 13-for-34 with three homers vs. Chris Archer ... Nolan Arenado ($4,500) has three homers in 20 at bats vs. Chase Anderson ... J.D. Martinez ($5,000) is eight-for-19 with two homers and a 1.266 OPS vs. Kyle Gibson ... Mookie Betts ($5,100) is four-for-18 with two homers and seven walks in 25 plate appearances vs. Archer ... Mike Trout ($5,200) is six-for-11 with a couple of walks and a 1.524 OPS vs. R.A. Dickey ... Logan Morrison ($3,200) is five-for-12 with two homers vs. Clay Buchholz.
4. We've got a couple of red-hot rookies out there. Yankees C Gary Sanchez ($4,300) homered twice Monday night, giving him six homers in his last six games. Sanchez is scheduled to face Taijuan Walker tonight, but he's caught four games in a row, so a day off is in play ... Astros 3B Alex Bregman ($3,900) has four homers in his last six games, and a matchup with Ivan Nova on tap.
5. Birth announcements: A's SS Marcus Semien and his wife had a baby on Monday afternoon. The team isn't sure if Semien will be placed on the paternity list, but you should plan to avoid him tonight unless you can make a late swap ... Mets 2B Neil Walker has been placed on the paternity list.
Adam Meyer's daily fantasy baseball suggestions...
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
We provided you with plenty of home runs on Monday: Freddie Freeman (two), Paul Goldschmidt, Gary Sanchez (deal-o-day), Kris Bryant, Chris Carter, and Yasmany Tomas.
Must-Start of the day: J.D. Martinez, DET
He has all of the qualifications for a "must-start:" great week (11-for-22 with five extra-base hits), great season (.253 ISO against righties this year), and a great BvP (8-for-19 with five extra-base hits).
Deal of the day: David Dahl, COL
He has a .256 ISO against righties this year. Dahl also swiped two bags last night.
Avoid of the day: Brian Dozier, MIN
He is 2-23 (.087) with six strikeouts in his career against Anibal Sanchez.
Stack of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks
I inadvertently had a small Diamondbacks DFS lineup yesterday (Lamb, Segura, and Tomas). Tonight, I'm removing Lamb and replacing him with Goldy. Arizona is favored to win and their game has an over/under of 9.5 total runs. Segura is batting .517 in the past week and Goldy is 9-for-23 in the last seven days. Tomas has also homered five times in the last eight games.
Madison Bumgarner, SF - He finally gets to start against the Dodgers without Clayton Kershaw starting opposite him. In his career, the Mad Bum is only 13-8 against the Dodgers, but carries a 2.57 ERA in over 150 innings. He averages one K per inning during that span, too.
Jake Arrieta, CHC - I was a fan of Jon Lester last night, and I'm a fan of Arrieta today. The Padres strike out a ton and Arrieta gets the boost of pitching in a friendlier ballpark.
Reynaldo Lopez, WAS - If you're looking for a gamble, roll with Lopez as your SP2 in DraftKings. In his last outing, Lopez punched out 11 batters in seven innings of work. His $5,800 price tag would make a great pairing with either Arrieta or Bumgarner.
Clay Buchholz, BOS - Only $4,000 on DK? I know his stock has fallen, but Buchholz had a solid game in his last outing (6 IP, 1 ER, and 3 Ks). He's another great option to pair with an expensive arm.
Gary Sanchez, NYY - (See "5 Things")
Jonathan Lucroy, TEX - He has a .208 ISO against righties this season.
David Ortiz, BOS - (See "5 Things")
Anthony Rizzo, CHC - He has a .247 ISO against lefties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - He has a .377 wOBA against righites this season.
Rougned Odor, TEX - He has a .231 ISO against righties in 2016.
DJ LeMahieu, COL - He has a .385 wOBA against righties this year.
Nolan Arenado, COL - He has a .276 ISO against righties this year.
Kris Bryant, CHC - He has a .299 ISO against lefties this season.
Alex Bregman, HOU - (See "5 Things")
Addison Russell, CHC - He has a .225 ISO against lefties in 2016.
Jean Segura, ARI - He has a .370 wOBA against righties this season.
Troy Tulowitzki, TOR - He has a .198 ISO against lefties this year.
J.D. Martinez, DET - "Must-start of the day."
David Dahl, COL - "Deal of the day."
Yasmany Tomas, ARI - He has a .224 ISO against righties this year.
Adam Duvall, CIN - He has a .258 ISO against lefties this season.