If you haven't heard yet, the college football national champion will be determined through a 4 team playoff this year instead of a 1 game championship. This in and of itself obviously isn't news. However being able to bet on which schools will actually make the inaugural playoff is in fact something to consider. We've all grown used to betting into future pools, trying to tab the champion long before value is zapped from the number. Figuring out which team can actually win 2 games in as many weeks is a more delicate proposition.
Earlier this week www.betonline.ag opened up a fresh market offering yes/no prices on a handful of schools with the inside track into the national semifinals. The key to properly identifying any money-making opportunity in these college football props is assessing remaining schedules. As far as I'm concerned FSU not getting into the mix would require a huge upset so digging into their price, trying to find value on either side is a lost cause. Instead the log-jam of SEC programs highlighted by Alabama at -110 offers an interesting discussion point. Here's the full list from heaviest favorite down to mild longshot.
Florida St Yes -320 / No +260
Alabama Yes -110 / No -110
Miss St Yes +125 / No -145
Ole Miss Yes +140 / No -160
UGA Yes +170 / No -200
Oregon Yes +195 / No -235
Auburn Yes +200 / No -240
Michigan St St Yes +220 / No -260
Ohio St Yes +280 / No -340
TCU Yes +450 / No -600
Based on each team's remaining schedule and that criteria alone, here's my list of how I'd rank teams' postseason prospects regardless of current market price.
1. FSU
2. Alabama
3. Michigan St
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. TCU
7. Ohio St
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi St
10. Auburn
If you get bored, here’s a video of Clay and me discussing the topic on Let It Ride Bonus edition.
