Vikings' style will be why rematch with Packers may have different ending
It's Week 17 of the NFL season, and the NFC North division crown is on the line at Green Bay's Lambeau Field. For all the things the NFL has bungled lately, the recalibrating of the final week of the season to feature meaningful division rival games is one of the league's underrated smashing successes.
Schedule-makers have to be thrilled that on the regular season's final week a division crown will be granted to either one of the two participants on the same field -- a field that sits smack in the middle of one of the game's great temples.
But this isn't just a matchup of teams that really need the game; it's a matchup of styles as yesteryear as the venue itself. The Minnesota Vikings are on the verge of winning their division through a physical, effective and unapologetically predictable run game.
The Vikings don't try to trick you. Yes, they do have the game's most explosive runner in Adrian Peterson. But more importantly to make this old-school running approach work, their offensive line moves bodies in the trenches like it is 1994. Minnesota's ability to recreate the line of scrimmage on the defense's side of the ball is the greatest threat to the Packers' hopes of winning on Sunday.
SLOBBERKNOCKIN'
Last weekend against the sinking New York Giants, Minnesota showed a national audience the 2015 version of the Vikings on blast. The passing game, as is usually the case, was blah. Teddy Bridgewater didn't make any major mistakes -- other than taking the occasional sack he shouldn't. Bridgewater generally did a nice job of keeping the Vikings headed in the right direction as the team on the other sideline imploded with three interceptions. Bridgewater threw for 168 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions -- the lack of turnovers really being the difference in the game.
With that kind of passing profile for the day, Minnesota somehow scored a surprising 49 points. Minnesota's defense returned one interception for a touchdown, got 19 points through kicker Blair Walsh and pounded the ball on the ground to the tune of 218 yards and three scores.
The Vikings averaged 5.4 yards per rush, but just as we highlighted here earlier this season in another Vikings column, that number is spiked considerably by just a couple of runs. Removing Peterson's one long run of 39 yards, as well as explosive change-of-pace back Jerick McKinnon's 68-yard scamper, the Vikings rushed 38 times at only 2.9 yards per carry.
Whoa.
From that, one might deduce that the Vikings are only a couple of runs from actually being a pretty mediocre running team. But that wouldn't be an accurate reflection of how things actually work for them. Because the Vikings are really a run-to-pass offense, they consistently get eight-man (and sometimes nine-man) defensive boxes. The key here is that when they get those disadvantageous looks, they still run the ball.
Nobody expects to get 4 and 5 yards per carry against loaded boxes. In fact, most teams check out of or avoid running in those situations altogether. But that's what separates the Vikings. They are good enough in the trenches to still make positive yards in loaded-box situations.
One of the biggest reasons for this is the Vikings get exceptional movement in their double teams and do a great job of recreating the line of scrimmage on the defense's side of the ball (see below).
The above slide shows a significant change between pre- and post-play line of scrimmage across the board. All teams in the NFL will use double teams in their run game. What's unique with Minnesota is its consistent success at getting movement in the double team, often pushing defensive tackles off the ball and up to linebacker level.
Many NFL double teams serve the purpose of just keeping a particular player from making a play. The Vikings show consistent coordination and power at the point of attack to not only prevent that player from making the play, but also relocating him to a place where he affects somebody else's ability to get involved in the play.
These kinds of road grading plays don't usually pop for big runs, but their consistent fall-forward nature for 2, 3, 4 or 5 yards is what sets the table for that occasional big Vikings run or play-action pass success. Most importantly, Minnesota isn't scared to keep running the ball after it gets stopped on a single play. Even if you keep the Vikings to a modest gain, there's still a good chance they're coming right back to the run again.
PACKERS PROBLEMS
What makes this particular matchup so compelling is as the Vikings have solidified their deliberate approach as this season has droned on, the Packers have suddenly had a ton of trouble slowing teams with this kind of run game commitment.
Last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, the Packers surrendered 4.7 yards per carry, with no single run over 20 yards. In the two previous weeks against the Cowboys and Raiders, the Packers defense surrendered 8.2 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively.
These are the kinds of trends that make offensive coordinators drool. It's not as if the Vikings wouldn't stay consistent and use their running game as their lead hammer in this contest anyhow, but the Packers' recent struggles almost certainly earned them an overload dosage until they prove they can outright stop it.
One of the biggest issues that will jump off the game film for the Vikings as they prepare for this contest is the new propensity for Packers defenders to play with poor gap integrity -- the kind of mistake that can cost you roughly 10 yards against the Cardinals' David Johnson, but might cost you much more against Peterson. In the slide below, you see Packers DL Mike Daniels actually play the double team quite well, giving Green Bay a chance at the point of attack.
The problem they get into here is maintaining the integrity of the defense around the double team -- most notably getting washed down the line at the left defensive end position and then having poor second-level spacing at the linebacker/safety level (see above). These are the kinds of gap problems that offensive lines like the Vikings -- which may likely get much better movement at the double team -- usually feast on. Nothing makes run blocking more doable in the NFL than when defenders bunch themselves in a pile, with several players essentially accounting for the same gap.
Considering Peterson's elite ability to bounce any run out to the edge in an instant with rare speed and power, the presence of these kinds of wide running lanes in Green Bay's defensive front will make keeping the North title in Wisconsin an unlikely task -- regardless of what goes on with Aaron Rodgers and the offense.
The Vikings will bring their run game renaissance to Green Bay, daring the Packers to stop them. If the Packers can reverse their run defense trend, then this will be a competitive game. If not, the Vikings have a great chance of running away with the title.
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Matt Chatham played for the Patriots and Jets over nine seasons in the NFL, winning three Super Bowls. He is also the founder of footballbyfootball.com. You can follow him on Twitter.