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Pewter Projections: Fantasy Football RB1 Studs and Duds

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Fantasy football running backs can be key players to any owner’s success for the year, and they’re all looking to prove they can become your top running back in 2016.

Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) takes a handoff from Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston during the second half of a football game at Raymond James Stadium. The Bears won 26-12. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The fantasy football RB1 is an elusive title and it’s harder to keep once it’s earned. Becoming the kind of running back which can carry a team to victory when the roster’s RB2 falls short of their projected point total or a wide receiver faces a shut-down corner in a critical week for his owner.

Not every player who carries the ball can be an RB1 and not every owner can spot one when they see one.

Predicting the future isn’t scientific and there’s no fool-proof way to get it right. In the end we’re all just doing what we can to set ourselves up for success.

What will follow here are five guys I see who look to be legitimate RB1 candidates for the 2016 fantasy football season, and five more who look to have RB1 potential but will fall short for one or more reasons.

Studs and Duds can sound like a wide split, but when we’re talking top tier fantasy running backs, there’s no better terminology to use.

So here are our fantasy running back Studs and Duds for the 2016 NFL Season. Enjoy!

Aug 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) is introduced before a game against the Washington Redskins at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

STUD

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Since 2010 only one running back has placed in the top-5 of fantasy football running backs the season following his first place ranking the previous year. After ending last year as fantasy’s top backfield producer, Devonta Freeman will look to change the trend.

In just his second season out of Florida State Freeman not only became the team’s best back, he dominated fantasy runners finishing with more than 243 points in 2015.

Atlanta had the NFL’s 19th ranked rushing attack last year finishing behind the New York Giants and Denver Broncos, which normally leads to fantasy disaster for their running backs as those teams often led to many more passes than run plays.

For Freeman this trend not only helped his fantasy scoring it actually improved it. With 73 receptions he was his quarterback’s second favorite target behind superstar receiver Julio Jones. Perhaps this aided in the franchise decision to release veteran Roddy White and the addition of wide receiver Marvin Jones will likely do very little to take throws away from the playmaking backfield dynamo entering his third professional season.

With five match-ups in 2016 against nine of the teams which gave up the most points to opposing running backs, Freeman will have plenty of opportunities to have explosive games.

Tevin Coleman is a very real threat to eat into Freeman’s workload, but he comes with an injury history and Freeman has been the model of availability playing in 31 games in his first two seasons.

While he may not finish the league as the top fantasy football running back for consecutive seasons, he should easily top many weeks’ runners and help all of his owners to successful seasons.

Aug 20, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

STUD

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

As a rookie Todd Gurley joined the St. Louis Rams with a cloud of injury concerns hanging over his head. He answered these concerns by turning in over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdown runs while losing just one fumble and going injury free after missing the first three games of the year.

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All of those stats landed him as NFL.com’s fifth best running back in fantasy football with 187.6 points and a points per game average of 14.4 which tied him for third best with the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson.

Moving to Los Angeles, and with his team having six games against some of the league’s most generous fantasy defenses from a season ago, Gurley has a very real chance at becoming the first running back to finish top-5 in scoring in his first two since Matt Forte.

What hurts his fantasy stock is his lack of involvement in the Rams’ passing game. Limited to just 21 catches for 188 yards his lack of receiving ability could become a very real fantasy football liability should his team find themselves playing catch-up in 2016. Matt Harmon wrote about this recently, and you can read his expanded thoughts about this topic here.

Significant match-ups for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year come against the San Francisco 49ers who gave up the second most points to running backs in 2015.

With Los Angeles opening the season against their division rivals and facing them again in Week 16, Gurley should get his owners started well and anchor a championship run should his fantasy teammates hold up their end of the deal.

Aug 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Chris Ivory (33) runs the ball against the New York Jets during the first quarter of a preseason game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

DUD

Chris Ivory, Jacksonville Jaguars

Not only did Chris Ivory crack the top-10 for the first time in his career, he never made it into the top-15 before last year either.

Now in Duval County with the Jags Ivory is looking to build upon a good showing last year, and many fantasy football owners are excited at the possibilities which lie within Jacksonville’s potent passing attack and the running lanes it may open.

In 2015 the Jags threw the ball nearly twice as many times as they ran it, and all running backs combined for just five rushing touchdowns.

Rookie T.J. Yeldon led the team in rushing yards with 740 while carrying a per carry average of 4.1 finishing 26th in fantasy scoring.

Folks, this all means one thing. Jacksonville is a passing team first, second and sometimes they run third. It also means they have a talented runner in Yeldon who has big play ability and should only get more effective in his second season in the system.

In pre-season action Ivory did edge out Yeldon in carries while the latter dominated in yards from scrimmage with 30 more yards on fewer opportunities.

If this wasn’t enough to paint the picture of why Ivory may not have the breakout season his owners hope for is their scheduled games against just one team, the Chargers, who allowed more than 20 points per week to opposing running backs.

Eight times this team will face one of the top-10 defenses against running backs who all averaged under 16 points per game surrendered.

While most owners would be happy to get 16 points from an RB2 all signs point to a split workload for the Jags’ running backs meaning they’re sharing those 16 points.

Owners of Ivory need to handcuff him with Yeldon at a minimum and consider shopping the waiver wire for options should this doom-and-gloom come to fruition.

Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) runs the ball for a first down in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

DUD

Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers

Playing for the 49ers seems to make any player a fantasy football pariah these days and running back Carlos Hyde is no exception.

If the best ability is availability then Hyde gets a fourth round grade as he’s been on the field for just 21 of the 32 regular season games his franchise has played since drafting him.

His worst season came just last year when he was available for just seven games. Despite the somewhat impressive 4.1 career yards per carry average he can only gain the yards he’s on the field to get, and he just can’t seem to stay in long enough to truly make an impact.

Even if he stays healthy in 2016 Hyde will find himself playing in a weak offensive unit who’s best weapon beyond himself is…..Torrey Smith?

Defenses don’t have a lot to dedicate their attention to meaning Hyde will get plenty of it when he’s in the game.

Speaking of games, four of the 49ers contests come against teams which like to give points to running backs including a Week 12 contest against the Dolphins who surrendered more than 24 points per game in 2015.

Four more come against teams who kept their opposing running backs in check more often than not leaving a total of eight games against middle tier defenses who will be focusing all their attention on stopping the former Buckeye.

I don’t think many people are jumping into the top rounds to grab the hard running 49er, but if you do grab him up later, keep an eye out for breakout candidates as you may feel compelled to cut him loose sooner rather than later.

Aug 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs the ball as San Diego Chargers inside linebacker Denzel Perryman (52) defends during the first quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

STUD

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

If any 2015 rookie running back could measure up to the storm Todd Gurley brought to the league it was Arizona’s David Johnson.

As a third round draft pick he was firmly behind Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington entering last season and he didn’t have double digit carries until December 6th when he rattled off 120 yards from scrimmage in a win against the then St. Louis Rams.

In the Cardinals’ final five games of the year Johnson carried the ball 90 times for 442 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and scored five touchdowns. Including his modest receiving numbers Johnson averaged 20.86 points per week at the end of last season.

Don’t expect 20 points a week coming in 2016, but there’s definite potential for Johnson to break the top-5 barrier in his second year. His receiving ability is adequate and he led all running backs in the desert with 36 total receptions totaling over 450 yards receiving.

Alex Gelhar of NFL.com recently predicted Johnson to be the Fantasy Player of the Year for the 2016 season, and this young player has shown plenty of potential to support such a prediction.

Johnson will face five of the defense who gave up loads of fantasy football points to running backs last season including back-to-back match-ups against the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints during the fantasy football playoff season.

In daily and weekly games, Johnson has to be a prime consideration for every player as this team and their running back look to pick up where last season left off in the NFC Championship Game.

Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) during the first half against the Chicago Bears at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

STUD

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This time last year Doug Martin wasn’t even the consensus favorite to be the Buccaneers’ top running back let alone a top fantasy football option.

What a difference a year makes, as this fall not only is Martin sporting a brand new contract, he’s a hot target in the first 25 picks of most fantasy drafts this season.

Of all 32 NFL teams the Bucs have the most games against the league’s worst fantasy defenses from last year when it comes to giving up points to runners.

In fact, two of Tampa Bay’s division rivals appear on the list of fantasy friendly running back match-ups as the Saints surrendered the third most and the Falcons sixth most points to opponents in 2015.

Both teams have taken steps to address these problems, but look vulnerable to potent running attacks once again.

There are two concerns with Martin as a top running back option for any fantasy roster: A lack of receiving ability and Charles Sims.

This is classic cause and effect. Martin simply doesn’t possess top end receiving ability which leads to his team leaning on Sims to run most of the routes out of the backfield.

A year ago the understudy eclipsed the star by nearly 20 receptions and almost 300 more yards.

Martin finished second in the NFL in rushing yards, but came in third as a fantasy running back due to touchdowns, or a lack thereof.

With just six rushing touchdowns last year he’s the only top-5 back from 2015 to finish with single digit endzone visits. An improvement in this area will significantly help his fantasy chances, and help him turn in his first back-to-back successful seasons in his short career.

Aug 20, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) celebrates a touchdown during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

DUD

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo hasn’t had the best luck with their running backs already this season with the downward spiral and eventual release of Karlos Williams.

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Despite playing in just 12 games last season McCoy finished 17th in fantasy football scoring among running backs putting him firmly in the RB2 conversation.

While the departure of Williams seems like a blessing to McCoy’s fantasy owners on the surface, it can very quickly turn into a curse should the 28-year old’s injury creep back into relevance this coming season.

Reggie Bush is on the team now and he may be able to fill in a bit to help keep Shady healthy, but there is really no true number-two runner in Buffalo meaning they’ll need to lean on McCoy a bit more than maybe his health can handle at the moment.

He faces four defenses in 2016 who ranked among the 10 best against running backs in fantasy scoring and another four against teams who gave up big points on a regular basis.

What makes McCoy more attractive than perhaps any other player on the dud list is his Week 16 match-up against the running back friendly Dolphins in what has become fantasy football championship week for most leagues.

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi

DUD

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

As a Dolphin in 2016 Lamar Miller made an impact in fantasy football finishing 6th overall in scoring. Now as a member of the Houston Texans his stock is as high as it’s ever been and he’s been regularly being drafted in the first or second rounds.

Entering a new offensive system could give a player the boost they need to reach super-stardom or it could signal the end of their career if exposed to the system for too long.

While Miller will be the unquestioned starter in a Texans offense featuring star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, he’ll have a tough schedule awaiting him as he tries to get his feet under him with his new teammates.

Six times this year he will face opposing defenses who finished in the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.

In a potentially disastrous stretch Miller will line up against four of these teams in consecutive weeks beginning in Week 2.

Confidence weighs heavy on any unit and if this offense can’t get things going on the ground in the first five weeks of the season then Miller’s involvement in the scheme may suffer.

Similarly significant to his potential success as a fantasy option is the lack of obvious big-point opportunities.

Just three teams facing Houston in 2016 finished in the bottom ten teams in terms of allowing fantasy scoring to running backs.

Fantasy owners with Miller on their squad need to watch closely to how well he’s able to operate in the first quarter of the year, and would be wise to invest in a replacement should his production dip significantly early on.

Aug 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray (29) carries the ball away from San Diego Chargers defensive back Darrell Stuckey (25) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports

DUD

DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans

After bursting onto the fantasy football scene in 2013 with a 7th place finish for the Dallas Cowboys, DeMarco Murray followed up with a top finish in 2014.

2015 he found himself in Philadelphia and showed just how much he needed a strong offensive line to give him the holes he needed to make a big impact.

One season after finishing 18th in fantasy scoring among running backs the former star is in Tennessee looking to show his shine isn’t gone just yet.

Last year the Titans’ best fantasy runner was Antonio Andrews who compiled a total of 85.4 points for the year.

Upside is Murray just about can’t underperform last year’s top Tennessee offering, but just how well will he do playing behind Marcus Mariota?

Looking at the schedule Murray will face running back friendly defenses four times in 2016 with match-ups against the Chargers in Week 9, Dolphins in Week 5 and the Jaguars in Weeks 8 and 16.

Even a couple of these contests could be deceptive though as Jacksonville has certainly improved their defense on paper and they’ll have plenty of time to figure out their run stopping strategy prior to facing the Titans.

In contrast to this upside Tennessee faces four other teams with some of the stingiest defenses when it comes to allowing points to fantasy running backs. With the Jags looking to improve their front end defense significantly from a year ago, if they crack the top-10 themselves then Murray will find himself running against six tough defenses this year.

Murray had the benefit of a great offensive line for two years, and when he relied on himself behind a less than stellar bunch he was unable to produce at his normal level. His line here is better than Philly’s, but nowhere near the one he had in Dallas and if he can’t find a way to make his own space then he’s in for another sub-par season.

Sep 1, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) stretches before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

 STUD

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson has been a top-5 fantasy football running back in three of the last five NFL seasons. The one years he didn’t came on his lost year and in 2011 when he fell all the way to 7th.

This pattern should continue this season as he looks to carry this team back to the playoffs despite the loss of starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the year.

Bleacher Report’s Alec Nathan took his shot at quelling fantasy concerns for Peterson owners here, and it’s important to remember two of his top-10 finishes came with quarterbacks Tarvaris Jackson and Christian Ponder at the helm.

Bottom line is AP should be fine, and so should his fantasy football owners. This year’s schedule for the Vikings features just four teams which surrendered top points to fantasy backs and his signature game could come in Week 7 when Minnesota faces off against the Eagles. Philadelphia gave up the fifth most points to running backs las year, so circle this for your daily and weekly games.

The NFL’s rushing leader last season isn’t easily stifled and if his offense can find a serviceable quarterback to cause even a little bit of caution in the defense, then he should notch another top-10 fantasy output with a still real chance at getting into the top-5 yet again.

Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) celebrates as he scores a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

So there we have our five studs and five duds as you look for your RB1 to lead your team to fantasy football success.

It may be a passing league, but your running backs could prove to be the difference between victory and defeat as you look to avoid the “L”.

It seems every season has its colossal flop and surprise breakout player who rock the entire fantasy landscape and catapult one fortunate owner into genius status for the year.

Many of the names on the duds list would make suitable RB2 options with a few even holding some potential flex possibilities, so while they may not be RB1 material they aren’t necessarily players you need to avoid all-together.

There are 32 teams with 32 starters and plenty of hand-cuffs to be had. Who are your favorites, who are your RB1 duds, and who do you see making the jump from zero to hero in 2016?

As the NFL season gets underway in about a week keep coming back to get more fantasy news and advice with our weekly fantasy previews starting in time for every Sunday’s kickoff times.

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