National Football League

NFL odds Week 15: How to bet Lions-Jets

Updated Dec. 17, 2022 11:48 a.m. ET

The Detroit Lions square off against the New York Jets in a Week 15 NFL matchup.

The Lions defeated the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, while the Jets were taken down by the Buffalo Bills in their matchup.

This is a big game with big playoff implications. Who will come out on top?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Lions-Jets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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RELATED: Week 15 lines

Lions at Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Jets -1 (Jets favored to win by more than 1 point, otherwise Lions cover)
Moneyline: Jets -118 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.47 total); Lions -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

The Lions are hot, having won five of six, with a close loss to the Bills being the only blemish. And two of those wins came outside — in Chicago and New York, with temperatures in the 30s for both games. This is an entirely different situation, as the Jets are a significantly better defense than both of them.

The top reason you should wait to bet on this game is the status of Quinnen Williams, arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Jared Goff has historically struggled outdoors with pressure up the middle, and it’s a perfect storm if Williams can play.

New York is ninth in the NFL in net yards per play; the Lions are 22nd. The Jets outgained the Vikings by 200 yards in a narrow loss two weeks ago; they held Buffalo to its fewest yards this season in a close loss last week.

I like my Jets in this spot.

PICK: Jets (-105 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

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Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

This game features a massive pivot for the Lions.

In fact, this game and the Lions’ last game against the Vikings are nearly as diametrically opposed as you can get.

Site: Home last week vs. Road this week
Primary coverage faced: Zone last week vs. Man this week
Play action defense faced: Worst last week vs. First this week

We know the splits are massive for the Lions, home vs. road.

In home games, the Lions rank No. 1 in:

Points/drive
Touchdowns/drive
Scores/drive
Lowest rate of punts/drive

In road games, the Lions rank:

No. 30 in lowest rate of punts/drive
No. 29 in scores/drive
No. 28 in touchdowns/drive
No. 23 in points/drive

They literally move from first to near-worst in most of these scoring efficiency metrics on a per-drive basis.

The Lions have played only five games against defenses that rank above average. Three of those five games came at home. They lost two of those three games (though primarily because the defense gave up too many points).

The two road games they played when facing above-average defenses were in New England and Dallas.

They scored a TOTAL of six points in those two games.

For the first time since that Week 7 loss to the Cowboy, the Lions will play on the road against a defense that ranks above average.

And the Jets are more than just "above average" – they are the sixth-best defense in the NFL.

Now, let’s discuss man vs. zone splits. The Lions just played the Vikings, who use the second-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. The Jets use above-average rates of man coverage, including the fifth-highest rate of man coverage over the last month.

Over the second half of the season, Jared Goff is the NFL’s No. 1 QB vs. zone. He averages +0.44 EPA/att. For comparison, the NFL average is +0.07 EPA/att and the No. 2 is Joe Burrow at +0.19 EPA/att.

But against man coverage? Jared Goff ranks below average, at only +0.01 EPA/att.

The only QB with a similar rate of dropoff is Russell Wilson, who shifts from +0.03 EPA/att vs. zone to -0.50 EPA/att against man coverage.

Finally, let’s discuss play action.

The Vikings, who the Lions just played, are literally the worst defense in the NFL vs. play action. The Jets are the best. Going from 32nd to first.

Over the second half of the season, Goff’s splits with and without play action:

With: +0.42 EPA/att, 61% success, 8.2 YPA, 55% first-down rate
Without: +0.25 EPA/att, 48% success, 7.4 YPA, 32% first-down rate

On account of these factors, I think the Jets defense should surprise by being one of the few to really limit this extremely productive Lions offense.

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