National Football League

NFL odds Week 11: How to bet Bengals-Steelers, pick

Updated Nov. 17, 2022 5:09 p.m. ET

The Cincinnati Bengals are traveling to Pennsylvania to square off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 11 NFL matchup

The Bengals are well rested after a bye week, while the Steelers are flying high after a 20-10 victory over the New Orleans Saints.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bengals-Steelers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

'I think we stayed consistent'

Kenny Pickett talks with Kristina Pink on why the Pittsburgh Steelers run game was so successful against the New Orleans Saints in the 20-10 victory.

RELATED: Week 11 lines, odds

Bengals at Steelers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Bengals -4.5 (Bengals favored to win by more than 4.5 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
Moneyline: Bengals -227 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.41 total); Steelers +175 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

When these two teams met in Week 1, the Steelers had T.J. Watt, and the defense played 55% two-high safeties.

But then Watt was injured. And the Steelers lowered their rate of two-high safeties to an average of only 32% from Weeks 2 through 8 without Watt.

Watt returned last week, and the Steelers promptly increased their rate of two-high back to 52%.

For context, the NFL average usage of two-high is only 39%.

A 52%-55% usage rate would be top-four in the NFL.

On the season, Joe Burrow’s Bengals are 5-4.

When defenses play at least 50% two-high against them, he is 0-4. When defenses play less than 50% two-high against him, he’s 5-0.

Look at their schedule and defensive usage of two-high:

Wk 1, L against PIT: 55%
Wk 2, L vs. DAL: 60%
Wk 3, W against NYJ: 48%
Wk 4, W vs. MIA: 27%
Wk 5, L against BAL: 65%
Wk 6, W vs. NO: 45%
Wk 7, W against ATL: 33%
Wk 8, L vs. CLE: 55%
Wk 9, W against CAR: 45%

When defenses have used two-high at a 50% clip, the Bengals have never scored more than 20 points and averaged 17 PPG.

When defenses have used lesser rates of two-high, the Bengals scored 27-plus points in every game and averaged 32 PPG.

Without Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals have played two of the NFL’s worst defenses: the Browns and the Panthers.

In their last game, they ran it all over the No. 22 run defense of the Panthers. That won’t be nearly as easy against the No. 7 run defense of the Steelers.

Leans: Steelers +4 and Under 41

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

T.J. Watt’s impact cannot be underestimated.

Pittsburgh’s star defensive end returned last week against the Saints and the Steelers played like maniacs up front. New Orleans rushed for a measly 29 yards and racked up only 186 yards of total offense. Sure, Cincinnati has better playmakers, but its offensive line will be tested all night. And Joe Burrow’s inability to get rid of the ball quickly is not ideal against this D.

Bengals star receiver Ja’Marr Chase is still out with a hip injury – which eliminates the game’s best threat for a long touchdown – and the Steelers possess one of the worst scoring offenses in the league. Only the Broncos [14.6 points per game] are worse at lighting up the scoreboard.

Don’t overthink this one.

PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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